Conn Fishburn

TV right now is wall-to-wall "mid." But why? I think a lot of pieces right now are missing the true culprit. For example, this James Poniewozik piece does a fantastic job of laying out what exactly that looks like: all-star casts and highly-competent direction, but familiar and low-stakes. Like a fancy cheeseburger. He, like most pieces on the subject, pins it on the streaming business model. I think there's something else going on that's different about TV today versus when people were glued to The Wire, The Sopranos, or Twin Peaks that goes deeper than the underlying business model. It's our second screen. When I talk to friends about what they're watching, a lot admit they can't watch foreign language TV, or stuff that's too complex, because they have their phone or laptop open. We’ve relegated TV to comfortable background noise. The streaming model gives people what they want, but what they overwhelmingly want is comfortable and mid, not because that's where their tastes lie if something has 100% of their attention. It's because they are calibrating their TV taste to what works for 40% of their attention. I don't have a solution, but I'm pretty sure that's the cause. I don't think Hollywood has lost its spark or financiers have lost their taste for risk. We've lost our taste for stuff that requires our full attention.

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https://lnkd.in/gSNGxFQp The Spencer Stuart annual CMO Tenure Study offers compelling insights into the evolving role and stability of CMOs, particularly noting the tenure stabilization at 4.2 years for Fortune 500 CMOs. It's intriguing that B2B CMOs tend to have longer tenures compared to their B2C counterparts, with 4.5 years versus 4.0 years respectively. This difference likely reflects the distinct challenges and market dynamics each sector faces. The study also highlights the increasing trend of CMOs taking on broader responsibilities and the significant number of first-time CMOs being promoted internally, suggesting a strong emphasis on leadership development and succession planning within organizations. It is great to see that women now represent half of Fortune 500 CMOs. I believe it's important now for companies to turn their attention to improving development and support systems for diverse high-potential leaders. #CMOtenure #B2BMarketing #Leadership #WomeninMarketing

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🔥Deepfake summer 🔥 This summer is fast approaching - where GenAl capabilities are so good (particularly audio cloning and facial mapping), and the world is flooded with content, that it will be hard to tell real from fake. ✅ Brands need a proactive approach involving content credibility, brand monitoring and rapid response to prepare now for what's to come (#Gartner's TrustOps Model) 💲Creators need to prepare with new digital monetization strategies. Thanks to Trishla Ostwal at ADWEEK for a great conversation on this rising #Al Influencer Space. #CMO #GartnerMKTG #GenAI #InfluencerMarketing

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This is the natural progression of AI chatbots, and Character.AI type friends merging with social media. Interesting to what sort of Butterflies AI are created to 'live' on the platform, and see how their backstory evolves as they interact with others. Ultimately it's going to get harder to differentiate between who is real and who is not, and whether that even matters to many users? #ai #socialmedia #consumertrends #innovation #technology #culture #creativity #friendship #lonliness #virtualworlds #virtualfriends https://lnkd.in/dDVqd7tr

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EdTech giant 2U's recent struggles reflect the shifting landscape of marketing and delivering online degrees and programs. Once valued at $5 billion, 2U is currently valued at $30 million and a staggering $900 million debt. This WSJ podcast highlights the company's journey, citing increased competition and changing university capabilities post-pandemic. Partnering with specialized providers ensures graduate programs the expertise and stability desired to deliver positive enrollment outcomes. #graduateadmissions #legalmasters

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A busy morning in the podcast world as the IAB has released the 2023 podcast advertising study & iHeartMedia reported Q1 earnings. Let's dive in! First: IAB The headlines are simple: - Podcast ad revenue grew by 5% in '23, just shy of $2b (US). Yes, this is slower growth than we have seen previously (I can hear those misinformed headlines being typed as we speak!). If you look at the major players and their quarterly earnings over the last year, they all saw growth. So, what slowed down overall revenue? Simply, it was the middle & lower tier of podcasting. Brand dollars went to Spotify, iHeartMedia, SiriusXM, etc., increasing the delta between those platforms & the independent publisher. - But wait, there's more... Podcast revenue is projected to more than double its 2023 ad revenue growth rate in 2024 and is tracking to a total spend of $2.6b by 2026. So what does this mean? This means that podcasting remains very healthy and the best revenue growth opportunity in digital media for the foreseeable future. We're seeing increased revenue growth from all the big players, and those dollars do trickle down to the mid-tier, especially as they tap into existing marketplaces. All is good. https://lnkd.in/eCGxgnUs --- Now, onto iHeartMedia: Overall, the company made $799 million, down YoY by 1.5%. If you take out political revenue, they're down 2.5% (and the stock reflects that, down ≈31% today as of writing this... eesh). Their Digital Audio Group saw revenue of $239m, up 7%. Not bad! Thankfully, iHeart breaks out their podcast numbers, which were $91m, up 18%! If you remove podcast revenue, the digital group is only up 1%. So, like with SiriusXM, we see podcast revenue as the tide raising all boats. So what does that mean? It's the same story as SXM: a declining business focused on radio that is desperately trying to grow its digital initiatives to offset losses from its bread and butter. And podcasting is the only digital venture that is working—and it's working well! But will it work quickly enough? That's a tough one. Podcasting now makes up 11.3% of the overall revenue, which is tremendous growth but needs to be bigger to offset the rest. So, what happens? While the company tries to grow digitally as quickly as possible, it is also creating quite a valuable asset that could be attractive to an outside buyer. $400-500m/yr in revenue with an extensive podcast network, ad marketplace, and technology could be quite the bundle for larger companies that have yet to enter the podcast space... 👀 Never a dull moment! --- I'm the CEO and founder of DWNLOAD Media, a fund focused on acquiring majority stakes in podcast companies. With continued audience and revenue growth, podcasting continues to be the most under-valued medium, making it time to invest in audio. If you're interested in investing in the podcast space, DM me! #podcasts #audio #investing #podcasting #iheart #radio

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https://lnkd.in/eRsW6V_9 Must-have bundle indeed, and further reinforces the value of BrightLine's inter-operable CTV ad formats that work across both streamers - the only advanced ad experiences that advertisers can build and execute across both. #ctv #ctvadvertising #thestandard

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Friday☀️ wake-up call for creative talents in our biz. 💻 AI prompt: "What can't AI do that human creative artists can?" 💡Response: 💫 Originality and Innovation: Human artists can create entirely new styles, genres, and concepts, pushing the boundaries of creativity in ways that AI, which relies on existing data and patterns, struggles to match. True innovation often comes from breaking rules and thinking outside the box, something AI is not inherently equipped to do. 💜 Emotional Depth and Nuance: Human creativity is deeply intertwined with personal experiences, emotions, and cultural contexts. This allows human artists to infuse their work with emotional depth and subtlety that resonates on a personal level with audiences. AI can mimic emotions but lacks genuine understanding and the ability to experience emotions. 📝 Intentional Imperfection: Human artists often use imperfections intentionally to add character and uniqueness to their work. AI-generated content tends to aim for technical perfection, sometimes missing the charm and authenticity that imperfections can provide. 🧠 Contextual Understanding: Humans have a broad understanding of cultural, historical, and social contexts, enabling them to create art that reflects and critiques society in a meaningful way. AI can incorporate data about contexts but doesn't understand them on a fundamental level. 🧐 Ethical and Philosophical Insight: Human artists can explore and express complex ethical and philosophical issues through their art. They can engage in reflective and critical thinking that provokes thought and discussion, something that AI currently cannot do at the same depth. 🙏 Personal Expression: Each human artist has a unique perspective and voice shaped by their individual experiences, beliefs, and personalities. This personal expression results in art that is deeply personal and distinct. AI can emulate styles but lacks a personal perspective or identity. 💥Interactive Creativity: Human artists often engage in collaborative and interactive creative processes, drawing inspiration from interactions with others and responding to real-time feedback. This dynamic and adaptive creativity is challenging for AI, which typically operates within predefined parameters. 📗Narrative and Storytelling: While AI can generate stories, human storytellers excel in crafting complex, layered narratives with intricate character development and thematic depth. Humans understand the subtleties of pacing, tone, and dramatic tension in ways that AI struggles to replicate fully. ⁉️Symbolism and Metaphor: Human artists use symbolism and metaphor to convey deeper meanings and abstract concepts. This ability to imbue art with multiple layers of meaning, often drawing on a wide range of cultural references, is an area where AI is still quite limited. p.s. MvVO ART- AD ART SHOW is calling for fine artists in our industry. A.P.P.L.Y. @ www.mvvoart.com 🎨

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What do you think, is it worth the hype? A colleague shared this article with me today, and it is too good not to share more broadly. IMHO, most public sector orgs are far from ready for GenAI: 1.) because the tools are not mature enough, and 2.) because most orgs have some housekeeping to first (e.g. data, policy, processes). As my colleague pointed out, we haven't even really tapped into the full potential of more mature types of AI yet and some are ready to leap ahead to the unknown of GenAI. I'm here for it and excited about it, BUT...use caution when running toward the shiny new thing! https://lnkd.in/ePsappRB

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#Memphis is in the A.I. race! (kind of) In a landmark announcement, xAI has picked Memphis to get the (presumed) largest (at this time) supercomputer. 👉 It will be exciting to see what this offers the city and what (if any) advantages there might be to being close to computing and #AI this powerful. ❄️ One thing is for certain, if an ice storm hits to shut down the city's power grid, we know where the priority will now lie! Ha #MLGW https://lnkd.in/ecKmWRgs

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💡 #Brands Take note how the #NYPost mitigated #cookiepocalypse risk by using Aqfer's identity resolution tech, informed by Prohaska Consulting. In a post 3rd party cookie 🍪 world killer content and segmentation hooked to an adtech #frankenstack results in risk & loss. Pubs and brands need their own 1st party IDR systems to avoid fragmented customer views that result from multiple ID providers & other partners who are all hooked to each other in an attempt to create their own scale. This many-to-many-middlemen scenario has plagued adtech from the start. The result is redundancy, media waste, inconsistent customer experiences and inaccurate measurement. Think of Aqfer IDR like Data tech’s version of SPO 😉 #DPO, enabling clients like the NYPost, to get a single, deduplicated, omnichannel view of their customers. More here - https://lnkd.in/ggjDGWn5 https://lnkd.in/gTNURTu2

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Ever curious about what's under the curtain? Dailymotion has just unveiled Auto Path, a groundbreaking high-impact creative tailored specifically for the Auto Industry. By leveraging our Predictive Targeting audience insights and vast scale, we've crafted activations that resonate with car buyers, all while providing measurable in-ad actions with OLV and CTV. Key Standard Features: - Custom Multi-touchpoint elements envelop your video creative - Product feature hotspots seamlessly integrated within the video environment to capture attention - Outbound click features to enhance data collection, site traffic, and conversion rates Experience an exclusive peek behind the scenes... Let us guide you on a test drive and engage seamlessly across all screens! Hit me or our exceptional sales team Brenda Rodriguez Valeria Basmagi Edivaldo Junior to introduce you to this exceptional innovation in Latin America #autopath #Dailymotion #creativeinnovation #predictivetargeting

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Last week at the Music Business Association's Nashville conference, I talked to industry leaders about AI's potential impact on the music business: TL;DR - the "AI" genie is out of the bottle. Platforms will emerge challenging existing copyright laws, majors will be forced to react. Big tech creating extra pressure on top of a well funded startup ecosystem. Tools are getting more powerful, and regulation needs to catch up. 1. Big tech is offering everyone $$$ for training rights ...But rightsholders worry it might be a one way door. Let someone train on your catalog, and that might be the last paycheck you see as trained models could dilute and devalue catalog revenues. 2. Ethics vs. Profit Music executives are feeling uneasy about the second "digitization" of music (the first being mp3s), using human created works as training material to generate AI-created ones with no artist involvement. But the money is real, and some are afraid of getting left behind. 3. Artist-Friendly Companies Double Down Founder of BandLab Technologies Meng Ru Kuok drew a clear line in the sand that BandLab values artist rights and respects music copyright. BandLab, like Tuney, believes traceability of source material is essential to ethical music AI. It isn't a surprise that companies who already have an engaged user base of musicians are assuring those customers they are in their corner. 4. An Axe Is Being Sharpened (maybe?) The industry is waiting to see if the major music companies and trade organizations will litigate against companies allegedly training on public data they did not acquire or license legally. But some are also aware that if unethical AI platforms get enough user or revenue traction, they could be in a position to fight or settle lawsuits, or even strike agreements with the majors. 5. Copyright Office Guidelines due This Fall You won't see much legal activity from the trade orgs and incumbents until after US Copyright Office issues its guidelines on AI and copyright. If training isn't deemed "fair use" (and I'm sure it won't), you will likely see a string of court cases against models trained on copyright protected music without licenses. 6. Not All Doom and Gloom There's tons of exciting innovation happening around creation, marketing, fraud prevention, music discovery and scalable tech infrastructure for the music business. Companies like SoundCloud Deezer and Tuned Global are using AI and ML in ethical ways to improve the consumer experience for streaming and social media. Also companies like Beatdapp AudioShake Chartmetric innovating in fraud detection, stem separation and analytics. Shout out to all the friends I saw last week, old and new. Paul Sampson Gareth Deakin Jessica Powell Baylor Baugh Victoria Sheckler Jon Bahr Dae Bogan David Tauber Rob Abelow Nicolas Sincaglia Jordan Pettinato Chuka Chase Christopher Nolte Nicholas Salomone Jonathan Parks (ALIBI Music) Richard Slatter Patrick Ross

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The Neighborhood Studios team spent the last few days thinking about our new idea pipeline and its output. Tons of thoughts on this after being in a venture studio for 2 years. Here are some summary stats... - 1,750 new (raw) ideas considered per year. - 110 of those are given a second glance. - 66 of those are seriously considered. - 10 of those become experiments...real products in the hands of customers. - 2 of those are spun-out into studio companies. What the studio team has been discussing over the past few days is that 66 number. That's the number of ideas that 3 people on the team can dig into every year. Venture studios can be perceived as a "startup factory"...an engine to launch startups. The reality is that venture studios are a machine to invalidate ideas. We invalidate many more ideas than we validate. We touch 1,750 ideas per year, seriously dive into 66 of them, build experiments for 10 of them and only launch 2 of them. All that work turns into 2 studio companies per year that have a way higher success rate than the average startup in the wild. Said another way...startups are hard. Talk with Tapan Patel Gabe Hart Whit Anderson IV Jonathan Brinson if you wanna talk about this. They are world class.

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Robert Frank’s latest article on CNBC reveals that Generation X will benefit the most from the $84 trillion wealth transfer over the next decade. My thoughts: 🔍 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆: While much media attention and marketing efforts have been directed towards Millennials and Gen Z, Gen X has often been overlooked. This group has established careers and financial acumen, making them ready to manage and grow inherited wealth effectively. 🌱 𝗦𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: Gen X prioritizes tech, clean energy, and impact investing, creating opportunities for specialized financial products. 👐 𝗣𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀: Expect a surge in charitable giving as Gen X directs wealth towards social justice and environmental causes. 🔗 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eur557ur #FamilyOffice #CNBC #WealthTransfer #GenX #WealthManagement #Inheritance #UHNW #ImpactInvesting #CleanEnergy #Philanthropy #FinancialPlanning

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Disney Calendar Q1 2024 Earnings (FY Q2): DTC streaming business of Disney+ and Hulu had an operating income profit of $47M, ESPN+ lost $65 million. Added 6.3M Disney+ Core subs (117.6M total), excluding Disney+ Hotstar, which lost 2.3M subs. Hulu SVOD gained 700,000 subs (45.8M total), Hulu + Live TV lost 100,000 subs (4.5M total). ESPN+ lost 400,000 subs (24.8M total). Will add an ESPN Plus tile to Disney+ this fall, giving subscribers access to "select live games and studio programming" within the Disney+ app. Disney will begin cracking down on password sharing starting in some markets in June, followed by a wide rollout in September. UPDATED 11:28am EST - Stock is down almost 10%. Earnings release: https://lnkd.in/ea58MB2n -- #hulu #streamingmedia #disneyplus #espnplus #SVOD #AVOD

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Someone said that I was on a quest to be on every cap table in the industry. It is true that I have found my way on to a few but have never had any that have exited. Not super focused on it; It is a bad way to live. In the past, I have worried a lot about when this or that company was going to exit. But I now try really hard to be all "one-day-at-a-time" and "accept the things you cannot change" about the various equity pieces. I have a lot of sleepless nights, and it is a regret of mine. At one point, I gave myself a panic attack and had to consciously shift my thinking. Cautionary tale. Moving on. When starting companies, I have been part of teams where we wanted to build something that we thought clients would very much want, was hard to replicate by large companies in the space and required extreme domain expertise. Neither of the tech companies that I helped found were "built-to-sell" as their primary focus. They are technology/product companies where there are real assets that would be hard for someone to duplicate. However, I have observed that if your company survives in AdTech, you have a strong technology, and you are not too big (a very experienced founder told me sub-300MM in valuation), you likely get bought; otherwise, you have to take the leap and go public. I think this dynamic is part of Aperiam's success. They have a higher probability of exits, but at more modest valuations. I think this is a very smart model. Not zero to one, but zero to .6., but they have had some power law type exits. Let's see if anyone from there corrects me. I can think of a few cases where companies have not sold or gone public, and the founders are operating solid companies. And that is why you don't build to sell. You could be operating the company for a while and you don't want to get burned out and angry that you are stuck with something that is worth a lot but can't exit. Regardless, I would be up for an M&A surge.

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What does it take for a startup to succeed in music-tech? More than Product-Market fit -- you also need Industry Market fit and Investor Market fit. I wrote about these patterns https://lnkd.in/gF4wBSfX

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We see a lot of media mix modeling RFPs here at Recast. Unfortunately, a lot of them put a ton of emphasis on things that don’t actually matter that much to rolling out a successful MMM practice. Every MMM RFP should focus on 3 things: • Verifiability of the model The first (and most important) thing that you should be thinking about is verifiability and how are you going to validate the results are actually correct. It is trivially easy to run “an MMM”, and it is very, very difficult to run a good one. You want to ask every vendor you meet how transparent are the results going to be and how –specifically– are you going to be able to verify and validate them. What you should look for here is a way to validate the vendor’s results outside of the model itself. • Model operations You also want to think about all the operational components of your MMM. Make sure you’re asking questions like: - What's the refresh cadence going to be? - How often are you actually going to be re-estimating the model and re-estimating all of the models' parameters, or are you just re-using stale parameters on fresh data? - What's the procedure for identifying when things have changed? Beware that a lot of MMM vendors use confusing terms here or have different types of refreshes that aren’t actually refreshers… put simply, you really want to be clear on exactly what's happening. • Usability of the results Here, you want to ask questions like: - How are we going to have access to the results of the model? Is it a PDF / powerpoint? What is available in the dashboard? - How will we actually use these results in our planning workflow? - What underlying data are you going to have access to? If you want to use MMM in a fast-paced, on-demand way, great usability is what unlocks it. If every time you want something you have to ask a support question and they have to ask their team in some foreign country to pull the data, it will slow you down a lot. Whether you use Recast or not, I highly recommend you ask all these questions in your MMM RFP. Now, question for you: would it be useful if we made a free MMM RFP template you could download? If so, we’ll do it. Just let me know in the comments.

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