Marc Lawn

The 1.5 deg argument! Murphy's Law: whatever can go wrong, will go wrong O'Leary's Law : ………... Murphy was an optimist Immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors are needed urgently. According to the IPCC report, limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires a peak before 2025, reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035 and reach net-zero in early 2050. What is each one of us doing to help the reduction cause ? #climateactionnow #sustainability #esg

41

4 Comments

MUST is a strong word “EU hydrogen plans must be supported by subsidies, regulations- energy execs say” Ambiguity in the word “must” here— Mild interpretation: without subsidies, there will not be green hydrogen production. (This is a simple statement of fact, and should not be controversial). Strong interpretation: it is imperative to produce green hydrogen. (This is a complex statement requiring many assumptions and a long, convoluted and vulnerable chain of logic. As such, it is highly controversial). Quote after quote below indicates that without subsidies, there is no green H2. ‘Blue’-label hydrogen will always be more expensive than natural gas. ‘Green’-label hydrogen will always be more expensive than ‘blue’-label hydrogen. Basic physics, chemistry, mathematics, engineering and economics tells us this. Those things won’t change. More hydrogen: more subsidies. Is this sustainable? What is not mentioned below is that ‘green’-label hydrogen will always be more expensive than ‘pink’-label hydrogen (made using nuclear energy). In a comment below and discussion with Kathryn Porter, Morten Frisch links this problem with the question in my article from last year: https://lnkd.in/gavpw4PP #green #label #hydrogen #subsidies

6

6 Comments

The UK Labour Party is betting on the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) to finance its #greenspending plan, including #hydrogen and #CCUS projects. However, the potential changes to the EPL coupled with the party's promise to end new #oilandgas licensing on the UK Continental Shelf could result in lower offshore activity, further limiting tax receipts from the upstream industry and compromising the Labour Party's decarbonization commitments. Deltic Energy JERSEY OIL AND GAS PLC Viaro Energy Carlos Bellorin C H Hunter Roderick Bruce Juan Agudelo #unitedkingdom #elections2024 #labourmanifesto #energypolicy #fiscalterms #labourparty #decarbonization https://lnkd.in/eSXQ8etp

12

The Quarterly Gas Review by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies monitors crucial indicators within gas and #LNG markets. Here are some notable insights into EU gas demand: - EU gas demand in 2023 dropped to 395 Bcm despite lower prices, raising concerns about potential permanent demand losses. - Q4 2023 saw a 1.1 Bcm (0.9%) year-on-year decrease in gas use, primarily driven by the power sector. - Despite signs of a rebound, gas demand in Q1 2024 dropped by 2.9 Bcm (2.2%) year-on-year. - Gas demand in 2024 is expected to remain nearly flat compared to the previous year. - Gas use for power generation in 2023 decreased by 20% due to low electricity demand, improved renewables availability, and return of the French nuclear fleet. - Industrial gas demand was down by 4% in 2023 but showed a 4% increase in Q1 2024. However, recovery may be limited by EU manufacturing output trends and economic outlook. - Gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 2% in 2023 but decreased by almost 2% in Q1 2024 due to mild temperatures. - European gas market experienced falling prices throughout winter 2023-24 due to steady supply, weakened demand, and mild temperatures. - Global LNG supply outlook for 2024-2025 is mostly stable, with limited new projects and some volatility from players like Nigeria and Egypt. - European gas demand has seen a multi-year decline, particularly in gas-to-power, due to price impacts, weak macro-economic outlook, and shift towards renewables. #gasmarket #EuropeanUnion #gasdemand #macroeconomy #Gasconsumption #gastopower

2

Is the current sustainable energy transition viable? Is it in fact sustainable? And what are the implications of resource scarcity? These questions were explored by an excellent 2-hour expert panel on the »Access to rare minerals for energy transition« within ENERGY 2024 conference on 4 June. A uniquely grounded, nuanced and insightful discussion focusing on the realities of space, time, labour and resources availability. A non-polarising debate free from ideology, populism and wishful thinking. Thought-provoking statements forcing to (re)think: > »The green energy transition will not work, because there are not enough resources. We need a new plan.« >       »Renewable energy is not the same as sustainable energy. A resource's power density matters.« >     »Innovations must provide durable and sustainable solutions, and while some already exist, they remain overlooked and neglected because they are not easy.« >       »We are hugely dependent on resources and energy, and are not prepared for supply shortages, which are inevitable. Overshoot will be followed by collapse.« >       »EU Critical Raw Materials Act only looks at securing supply for Europe. Other countries are obviously trying to do the same.« >       »The current mindset is defined by willful ignorance and reality blindness. Reality must be faced even if it is unpleasant.« >       »Instead of unrealistic targets, the right question would perhaps be »What resources do we have (time, space, minerals) and what can we achieve with that in the next ... years?«« >       »The North needs shrinking in consumption to give space for the South to develop«. I highly recommend watching the full session to anyone interested in the topic, and especially to those working in energy and energy-dependent industries. The online recording can be accessed until 17 June subject to registration at: www.energy2024.org. 

3

2 Comments

EVs powered by Sodium: Time to look beyond Lithium -- Researchers are considering the possibility of using abundant elements like sodium as substitutes for scarce and environmentally harmful materials like lithium, cobalt and nickel in battery production. 📌 Two million litres of water are needed to extract 1,000 kilos of lithium. Tiamat Energy is developing sodium-ion batteries, and while they cannot compete with the range of current storage systems, they could be suitable for shorter car trips. 🤟 User behaviour is programmed While many people demand large batteries with long ranges, research shows that smaller batteries with shorter ranges are often sufficient for most trips, as extremely long journeys that require additional range are relatively rare. Therefore, an over-emphasis on range leads to increased vehicle costs and unnecessary resource consumption for electric cars. A shift in mentality towards smaller batteries with less range could further promote sodium as an alternative. This would allow the technology to be deployed in homes and workplaces as energy storage systems from renewable sources. 💡 Sodium-ion batteries are based on more abundant and safer materials. Key initiatives in this space: - The European SIMBA project is developing a sodium-ion battery for homes, with a prototype already in laboratory tests. - The Basque Research Center CIC energiGUNE has developed a sodium metal anode that is 70 times thinner than current ones, reducing the amount of sodium needed and the costs, weight and dimensions of the batteries, while increasing energy density and safety. 🖌 The Bottomline The energy density of lithium-ion batteries makes them ideal for portable devices like smartphones and electric vehicles. Sodium-ion batteries, although larger, offer a potentially cost-effective solution for storing energy in various settings, including residential homes, power tools, and smaller vehicles. What do you think about this? #sknotes #EV #mobility #climatechange #WhatIf? #innomantra #businessdesign #renewableenergy #lithium #tesla Lokesh Venkataswamy Rakesh Babu K.L Tojin Thomas Eapen, PhD Hiten Pal Saklani Innomantra

9

2 Comments

Energy investment in the Middle East is projected to reach approximately $175 billion in 2024, with clean resources accounting for around 15 percent of the total, a new report from IEA disclosed. The International Energy Agency’s analysis highlighted that clean energy investment in the announced pledges scenario is expected to more than triple by 2030 compared to 2024.  The report indicated that by the end of the decade, every dollar invested in fossil fuels in this scenario would be matched by 70 cents going to clean energy.  Five of the 12 countries in the region have set net zero emission targets. The UAE and Oman aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, while Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait have set a target for 2060. 

2

Not just numbers. 🔢 ..  but a challenge that requires ALL our attention AND immediate action. 💥 The latest graphic from Visual Capitalist by James Eagle starkly illustrates the scale of the problem with #Carbon Emissions and China/USA/India leading as the top emitters in 2022. This data represent the impact of our industrial activities on the planet which all contribute to the global carbon footprint. This underscores the need for concerted efforts in #sustainability across borders. ✅At Perfesco, subsidiary of the EDF Group, we are committed to being part of the climate solution. Our innovative financing model empowers industrial sites in France to achieve substantial energy savings without the upfront capital expenditure that often hinders them. We contribute to actively reducing their global #CO2 emissions. These projects not only decrease energy consumption but also promote green reindustrialization and support the national energy #transition. Act Now. #ESG #RSE #climatechange #environnement #energytransition #environment Roberta

40

1 Comment

The Guardian - Oliver Milman: Climate Crisis — Economic damage from climate change 6 times worse than thought – report. A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product, researchers have found Oliver Milman The economic damage wrought by climate change is six times worse than previously thought, with global heating set to shrink wealth at a rate consistent with the level of financial losses of a continuing permanent war, research has found. A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C (1.8F) since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C (5.4F) rise will occur by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost. A 3C temperature increase will cause “precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100” the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is “comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently”, it adds. “There will still be some economic growth happening but by the end of the century people may well be 50% poorer than they would’ve been if it wasn’t for climate change,” said Adrien Bilal, an economist at Harvard who wrote the paper with Diego Känzig, an economist at Northwestern University. “I think everyone could imagine what they would do with an income that is twice as large as it is now. It would change people’s lives.” Bilal said that purchasing power, which is how much people are able to buy with their money, would already be 37% higher than it is now without global heating seen over the past 50 years. This lost wealth will spiral if the climate crisis deepens, comparable to the sort of economic drain often seen during wartime. “Let’s be clear that the comparison to war is only in terms of consumption and GDP – all the suffering and death of war is the important thing and isn’t included in this analysis,” Bilal said. “The comparison may seem shocking, but in terms of pure GDP there is an analogy there. It’s a worrying thought.” The paper places a much higher estimate on economic losses than previous research, calculating a social cost of carbon, which is the cost in dollars of damage done per each additional ton of carbon emissions, to be $1,056 per ton. This compares to a range set out by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that estimates the cost to be around $190 per ton. Bilal said the new research takes a more “holistic” look at the economic cost of climate change by analyzing it on a global scale, rather than on an individual country basis.

1

EU takes the lead once again in development and implementation of Climate Action regulations though the compliance bar has been set for entities with a staff of 1000+ and Turnover exceeding €450 M. This bar will need to be lowered in the next few years in order for broadening the base of CSSSD enabling medium large size entities with higher emissions and carbon intensive business and operational processes.

1

Hopium needs no miracles? I’m afraid this post ignores the demographic reality of the world. While western economies can switch over to renewables and produce the same with less energy, the economy in Africa is still in its infancy, while the population is exploding. And one could say the Asian economy is in a juvenile stage, the point being it is still growing but much closer to maturity. World energy consumption will likely rise for at least for another half a century or so (that is if natural support systems hold out and global conflict is contained). I think we need to get real about the continued demand for ff, in particular in the developing world. Also we cannot ignore the dwindling ore densities of critical minerals that will at some point make renewables more expensive and more environmentally damaging. Since ff is still an abundant and cheap energy resource I think we need to worry about avoiding emissions from the ff stocks. That’s why I support a carbon takeback obligation (#CTBO). This policy proposal aims to phase out emissions and in my opinion would make the ff industry an active player in the energy transition

3

1 Comment

After lengthy negotiations, the #Ampel coalition has agreed reforms to the #Climate Protection Act and a #support package for the #solar industry to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and abolish sector-specific targets. Federal Transport Minister Volker #Wissing declared that #driving bans are off the table. The reforms are intended to promote the implementation of renewable energies, but Claudia Kemfert from DIW criticizes the need for such "horse-trading". EU Climate Commissioner Wopke #Hoekstra emphasized Germany's leading role in climate policy despite challenges in transport and agriculture. A report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research #PiK shows that the economic damage caused by inaction on climate protection could amount to up to 36 trillion euros a year globally, which would hit poorer countries particularly hard. In Germany, the use of small, safe and cost-effective modulated #nuclear power plants is being discussed, although experts question their economic viability and practical implementation. For continuous updates on climate, sustainability, transformation and environmental policy, #FAIReconomics delivers news every Monday in both German and English. https://lnkd.in/dx9B39jg

1

Ipieca has always been a key player in our industry. It’s the industry association that focus on environmental and social issues in the oil and gas sector. Local Content is an important topic, and two guidance documents have been issued in the past years. I’m proud to reference Ipieca in my job as it set the industry standards that are useful for the private and pucblic sector. #localcontent #oilandgas #ppp #industrystandards

16