Ujjal Ghosh, Ph.D’s Post

📈 Weekly Energy Market Update After several weeks of steady price declines in the forward gas and power markets, prices were notably more stable this week as the markets plateaued. Baseload power for Summer-24 decreased 0.8% over the week, closing at £64.01 /MWh, alongside Winter 24 which fell 2% to close at £81.24 /MWh. In the gas markets, Summer-24 shed 0.3% to close at 70.66 p/therm and Winter-24 increased marginally by 0.3% to 87.70 p/therm. 🔻 Bearish drivers - The EU has set out 68 onshore grid projects with priority permit access this week to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy capacity, likely to benefit Great Britain alongside increasing investment in interconnector capacity. - Although wind generation is expected to dip slightly today it is forecasted to recover quickly and remain at or above seasonal average until the end of this week. Mild temperatures are also expected until mid-February. 🔺Bullish drivers: - The 3.2 GW Hinkley Point C nuclear plant has been delayed again until at least 2029 and is going to rise in cost to as much as £46bn. The company's previous estimate was 2027. - The LNG supply picture has weakened slightly this week as approximately half the imports are expected compared to the previous three week average. In addition, Freeport terminal in Texas is undergoing a month-long unplanned outage.   🔍Industry insights: - JOGMEC, Japan's state-owned energy organisation, is set to provide financial support for new LNG projects as they aim to boost its self-sufficiency for oil and gas to over 50% by 2030. - Following the news that EDF's Hinkley Point C is delayed the French government has asked for a contribution from its UK counterpart to plug the gap.   #power #gas #energy #riskmanagement #wind #LNG #renewables

Slight rise in energy prices Every week, we inform you about the latest news on the energy markets 👉 Hereunder the summary of this November 21. Gas Gas prices have risen slightly due to lower renewable energy production and forecasts of colder weather. However, comfortable gas inventories and strong Norwegian supply are helping to limit the rise. Electricity Spot electricity prices in Europe rose yesterday, supported by : ✔ a combined drop in wind, solar and hydroelectric production ✔ lower temperature forecasts ✔ higher gas prices. Forward prices were highly volatile during the day yesterday. They finally came down thanks to comfortable market fundamentals: ✔ gas stocks are almost full ✔ availability of French nuclear power is recovering rapidly ✔ demand remains weak overall. Prices on 20.11.2023 Electricity: BE CAL24: 112.06 €/MWh Gas: TTF CAL 24: 47.032 €/MWh How will the markets behave in the coming weeks? 👉 Subscribe to the Energy Market News https://bit.ly/33hGt68 to receive your complete analysis by e-mail every week. 👈 #electricity #gas #energymarket #CO2

In July 2023, gas consumption in the European Union (EU) fell by 12% year-on-year (y-o-y), totalling 18 bcm. A significant factor contributing to this decline was the enactment of the EU regulation encouraging a voluntary 15% reduction in gas demand, effective from April 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024. Additionally, the rise in renewable energy production, especially solar, led to a decrease in the reliance on gas within the EU's power generation mix. Despite a decline in gas prices over the course of the month, the industrial sector's demand has yet to return to levels seen in the previous years. This lingering shortfall can be traced back to a noticeable erosion of gas demand observed over the past two years. Gas-based electricity production within the EU fell by 16% y-o-y, while total electricity production decreased by 5% y-o-y, reaching 196 TWh. The decrease in gas-fired power generation was driven by the rising output from other renewable energy sources. Hydro, solar and wind power generation witnessed substantial growth of 4%, 13% and 22% y-o-y, respectively. Additionally, there was a significant decrease of 43% y-o-y (equivalent to 14 TWh) in electricity generation from coal. Electricity generation from nuclear power rose by 7% y-o-y. Renewables accounted for the largest share of the power mix at 35%, followed by nuclear (24%), gas (19.5%), hydro (11.5%) and coal (10%). For the period from January to July 2023, EU's gas consumption fell by 11% y-o-y, reaching 197 bcm. (Monthly Gas Market Report August 2023 – GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum) – August 2023) #Eugasconsumption #gasconsumption #naturalgas #Euelectricityproduction #gas #coal #wind #solar #nuclear #hydro

Although oil and natural gas prices have fallen in recent months, the return of cheap fossil fuels to the global market should not impact the overall long-term deployment of renewable energy, analysts with S&P Global Commodity Insights said during a Thursday webinar. The Inflation Reduction Act boosted the percentage of U.S. energy expected to come from renewable resources in the 2040s from 65% to 75%, according to @Katherine Nelson , a senior research analyst with the S&P Global Commodity Insights energy research team. For the U.S. to reach 90% clean energy will likely require advances in still-nascent technologies such as long duration storage, advanced nuclear and hydrogen, but these resources may be more sensitive to fluctuations in oil and gas markets, said Steve Piper, director of energy research for S&P Global Market Intelligence. I can add bit more colour around the above spending: a) EPA is working energy providers on natural gas policies - https://lnkd.in/ghs4wzRZ b) There are challenges with Hydrogen including environmental issues along with supply issues - https://lnkd.in/gRbWMSaz or https://lnkd.in/gGGAmDTN or https://lnkd.in/gzFJGvNr c) Expanding hydro capacity is a concerned due to its impact on biodiversity - https://lnkd.in/epnJsEWe d) Nuclear power is an option. https://lnkd.in/gZCYDqGe e) Wind and Solar have their own issues - https://lnkd.in/gr8mgp-5 The path forward with energy needs to be involve the producers, indigenous groups, environmental groups, and all levels of government. This ties nicely into my work managing energy costs: Blog - 3 ways manufacturers can save on energy costs - https://lnkd.in/gZ7P-VfK #wind #solar #scope1 #scope2 #scope3 #ESG #energymanagement #emissions #biodiversity #hydro #VPP #virtualpowerplant #microgrid #vegetationmanagement #climatechange #nuclear #naturalgas #moltensalt #oilandgas #diesel #propane

Energy markets on a downward trend Every week, we inform you about the latest news on the energy markets 👉 Hereunder the summary of this November 28. Gas ✔ European prices fell yesterday thanks to comfortable levels at storage sites and strong supply from Norway and LNG. ✔ Falling coal and oil prices helped the downward trend. Electricity ✔ Spot prices in Europe rose slightly yesterday, supported by colder temperatures and a drop in wind generation coinciding with the evening peak in demand. They should continue their upward trend today, given forecasts of further falls in temperatures and wind generation in the short term. ✔ On the futures market, on the other hand, prices have declined sharply due to the fall in gas prices and CO2 emissions linked to the revision of the weather forecast for mid-December, which is milder and windier. ✔ The outlook for a rapid improvement in the availability of French nuclear power, slightly above-normal temperatures and a good level of renewable energy production also had a strong influence on the markets. Prices on 27.11.2023 Electricity: BE CAL24: 106.77 €/MWh Gas: TTF CAL 24: 45.117 €/MWh How will the markets behave in the coming weeks? 👉 Subscribe to the Energy Market News https://bit.ly/33hGt68 to receive your complete analysis by e-mail every week. 👈 #electricity #gas #energymarket #CO2

In 2022, 29,165.2 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity was generated around the world, an increase of 2.3% from the previous year. In this visualization, we look at data from the latest Statistical Review of World Energy, and ask what powered the world in 2022. Coal still leads the charge when it comes to electricity, representing 35.4% of global power generation in 2022, followed by natural gas at 22.7%, and hydroelectric at 14.9%. https://lnkd.in/gUPNxpHr

-The European gas market has experienced significant changes since the onset of the energy crisis last year, with prices falling sharply from record highs. -The Dutch TTF gas price, the European benchmark, averaged €83 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in May 2023, down from a peak of €300/MWh in December 2022. -The TTF forward curve shows a transition to a "two-part" curve structure, with front-year prices much lower but longer-dated prices remaining elevated. For example, the TTF price for delivery in 2024 is around €90/MWh, while the price for delivery in 2025 is around €100/MWh. -European gas demand is down around 20% from pre-crisis levels due to structural effects, such as the switch to renewable energy and energy efficiency measures. However, there has been some recovery in industrial demand as prices eased. -Record high gas storage inventories in Europe are constraining storage demand and price responsiveness this summer. According to the European Gas Infrastructure Group, gas storage levels in Europe are the highest level for this time of year since 2018. -Asian LNG demand recovered slower than expected in 2023, enabling sustained high LNG imports to Europe but diverting cargoes as prices adjust. LNG imports to Europe in the first quarter of 2023 were up 50% year-on-year. -The TTF price has moved to a discount relative to Asian hubs, such as the Japan Korea Marker (JKM). This is due to the stronger demand in Europe and the lower LNG prices in Asia. -Volatility is expected to remain elevated as the market tightens into winter 2023/24 and beyond due to ongoing supply/demand inelasticity. This means that small changes in supply or demand can have a big impact on prices. #europeangasmarket #energysecurity #gasprices #lng #russiaukrainewar #renewableenergy #energytransition #climatechange #sustainability #globalenergy #marketanalysis #industrynews

Power Demand and Freezing Temperatures Today is 2nd December 2023 and the freezing temperatures are putting a high demand on gas for power generation, averaging approximately 60% gas, renewables 10% - 5% wind and less than 5% solar. At night with no solar combined with light or no wind, gas supply becomes critical. The North Sea gas fields are declining, most of the Southern Gas Basin fields are decommissioned or facing the end of field life. Some would applaud this in support of climate change objectives, but what will replace the gas supply for power generation (and heating) when the gas supply from the North Sea runs out (including that from the UK/Norway/Netherlands). There is not and there will not be sufficient renewable energy to make up the shortfall. Current nuclear supplies about 10%-15% of the needs and biomass 5%. How are we to survive longer term under such circumstances? If we are not to suffer severe power cuts and have a critical situation impacting life when electricity (or gas) provides the primary means of heating, we either need to discover large new domestic gas resources from the North Sea or import expensive liquified natural gas (LNG) from other parts of the world. We cannot rely on domestic renewable resources to consistently fill the gap. Horizon Energy has the Dabinett prospect in the northern sector of the UK Southern North Sea containing prospective gas resources independently assessed at 663 billion cubic feet in a primary reservoir target and the potential of over one trillion cubic feet of gas including a secondary target. Dabinett represents one of the largest undrilled prospects currently recognised in the Southern Gas Basin. With success a development would supply gas to 2050 and generate in the region of a £500 million to £1,000 million in tax revenues to the UK government, as well as providing gas for heating about 2.5 million homes for one year or 250,000 homes for 10 years. Horizon plans an exploration well to evaluate the Dabinett prospect in 2025. If you are interested in learning more please get in contact.

coal consumption of India and China together is presenting such a major carbon footprint..

𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗜𝗧𝗬 𝗦𝗢𝗨𝗥𝗖𝗘𝗦 𝗣𝗢𝗪𝗘𝗥 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗟𝗗💡 29,500 TWh of electricity was generated in 2022, an increase of 2.3% from the previous year. 𝗘𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹) 🪨 Coal - 35.4% ⛽️ Natural gas - 22.7% 🌊 Hydroelectric - 14.9% ☢️ Nuclear - 9.2 % 💨 Wind - 7.2% ☀️ Solar - 4.5% 🛢️ Oil - 2.5% ➡️ Others - 5.4% 𝟳𝟱% of the world’s coal generated electricity is used in only 𝟯 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀. 🇨🇳China - 53.3% 🇮🇳 India - 13.6% 🇺🇸 U.S. - 8.9%. 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 (in terms of share of coal in total energy consumption) 🇧🇼 Botswana - 99% 🇽🇰 Kosovo - 95% 🇿🇦 South Africa - 89% 🇵🇱 Poland - 81% 🇨🇳 China - 55% 🇮🇳 India - 55% Burning coal is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗖𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱? 👉 Inexpensive to solar and wind power. 👉 Widely available around the world. 👉 Constant source of electricity, 24/7. 👉 Difficult to transition from something used for centuries. 𝗥𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 ♻️ Wind, solar, and geothermal energy represented 14.4% of total electricity generation (annual growth rate of 14.7%). Note: Hydro-electric should be treated as Renewable energy. This link tackles the dilemma (https://lnkd.in/dyd5frDc) #energy #electricity #world