Massachusetts gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018

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General election

General election for Governor of Massachusetts

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CharlesBaker2015.jpg
Charles D. Baker (R)
 
64.7
 
1,781,341
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JayGonzalez.jpg
Jay Gonzalez (D)
 
32.2
 
885,770
 Other/Write-in votes
 
3.1
 
85,554

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 2,752,665
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: September 4, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent(s):
Gov. Charlie Baker (Republican)
Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Massachusetts
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness
State executive elections in 2018
Impact of term limits in 2018
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Massachusetts
executive elections
Governor

Lieutenant governor
Attorney general
Secretary of state
Treasurer
Auditor
Governor's Council

Massachusetts held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018.

Democratic Party Click here for more information on the Democratic gubernatorial primary and here for more information on the lieutenant gubernatorial primary.
Republican Party Click here for more information on the Republican gubernatorial primary and here for more information on the lieutenant gubernatorial primary.

For more information on gubernatorial elections in 2018, click here. For more information on lieutenant gubernatorial elections in 2018, click here.

SETTING THE STAGE
  • Heading into the 2018 election, the sitting governor was Charles D. Baker (R), who was first elected in 2014. On November 28, 2017, Baker announced that he would seek re-election in 2018.
  • At the time of the 2018 election, Massachusetts was under divided government. It first gained this status when Baker took office in 2015. Massachusetts was under divided triplex control in 2018.
  • Massachusetts was won by the Democratic candidate in each of the five presidential elections leading up to the 2018 election. The widest margin of victory was Al Gore's 27 percent margin in 2000 while the narrowest was Barack Obama's 23 percent margin in 2012.

    • Massachusetts was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election. Click here for more information on other 2018 gubernatorial elections.


    Candidates and election results

    See also: Statistics on gubernatorial candidates, 2018

    General election

    General election for Governor of Massachusetts

    Incumbent Charles D. Baker defeated Jay Gonzalez in the general election for Governor of Massachusetts on November 6, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    ✔
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CharlesBaker2015.jpg
    		Charles D. Baker (R)
     
    64.7
     
    		1,781,341
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JayGonzalez.jpg
    		Jay Gonzalez (D)
     
    32.2
     
    		885,770
     Other/Write-in votes
     
    3.1
     
    		85,554

    Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

    		Total votes: 2,752,665
    (100.00% precincts reporting)
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Democratic primary election

    Democratic primary for Governor of Massachusetts

    Jay Gonzalez defeated Robert Massie in the Democratic primary for Governor of Massachusetts on September 4, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    ✔
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JayGonzalez.jpg
    		Jay Gonzalez
     
    64.4
     
    		348,434
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    		Robert Massie
     
    35.6
     
    		192,404

    There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

    		Total votes: 540,838
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Republican primary election

    Republican primary for Governor of Massachusetts

    Incumbent Charles D. Baker defeated Scott Lively in the Republican primary for Governor of Massachusetts on September 4, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    ✔
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CharlesBaker2015.jpg
    		Charles D. Baker
     
    63.9
     
    		174,126
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/lively-profile.jpg
    		Scott Lively
     
    36.1
     
    		98,421

    Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

    		Total votes: 272,547
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Lieutenant governor

    General election candidates

    General election candidates

    Primary candidates

    Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates

    Republican Party Republican primary candidates


    Context of the 2018 election

    Race rating

    Race ratings: Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018
    Race trackerRace ratings
    November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
    The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

    Polls

    See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

    June 2017

    A June 2017 WBUR poll of 504 registered Massachusetts voters found sitting governor Charlie Baker with double-digit leads over every declared Democratic candidate. Baker led Jay Gonzalez by 33 percent, Robert Massie by 30 percent, Setti Warren by 27 percent, and Maura Healey by 12 percent. The poll also revealed higher name recognition for Baker than for the Democratic candidates. Of the surveyed voters, 22 percent had not heard of Healey, 65 percent had not heard of Warren, 61 percent had not heard of Massie, and 73 percent had not heard of Gonzalez. This compares to three percent of voters who had not heard of Baker.[1] Despite his performance in the polls, Baker had not yet committed to entering the 2018 race, having told voters to expect a decision in fall 2017.[2] Although Attorney General Maura Healey was included as a potential candidate in the poll, as of June 2017 she had not yet decided to run, suggesting that she would be more likely to pursue reelection as Attorney General.[3]

    Massachusetts Governor's Race 2018, Hypothetical Baker-Gonzalez Contest
    Poll Jay Gonzalez Charlie BakerAnother candidateWouldn't voteUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
    WBUR
    (March 16-18, 2018)    		 21%60%2%2%15%+/-4.4504
    WBUR
    (November 9-12, 2017)    		 19%59%3%0%19%+/-4.4503
    WBUR
    (June 19-22, 2017)    		 22%55%1%2%20%+/-4.4504
    AVERAGES 20.67% 58% 2% 1.33% 18% +/-4.4 503.67
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Massachusetts Governor's Race 2018, Hypothetical Baker-Massie Contest
    Poll Robert Massie Charlie BakerAnother candidateWouldn't voteUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
    WBUR
    (March 16-18, 2018)    		 22%59%1%2%16%+/-4.4504
    WBUR
    (November 9-12, 2017)    		 21%60%2%0%16%+/-4.4503
    WBUR
    (June 19-22, 2017)    		 25%55%1%2%17%+/-4.4504
    AVERAGES 22.67% 58% 1.33% 1.33% 16.33% +/-4.4 503.67
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Massachusetts Governor's Race 2018, Hypothetical Baker-Warren Contest
    Poll Setti Warren Charlie BakerAnother candidateWouldn't voteUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
    WBUR
    (March 16-18, 2018)    		 24%58%1%3%13%+/-4.4504
    WBUR
    (November 9-12, 2017)    		 24%58%2%0%16%+/-4.4503
    WBUR
    (June 19-22, 2017)    		 26%53%1%2%17%+/-4.4504
    AVERAGES 24.67% 56.33% 1.33% 1.67% 15.33% +/-4.4 503.67
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
    Massachusetts Governor's Race 2018, Hypothetical Baker-Healey Contest
    Poll Maura Healey Charlie BakerAnother candidateWouldn't voteUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
    WBUR
    (June 19-22, 2017)    		 36%48%1%3%13%+/-4.4504
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Other 2018 statewide elections

    See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

    This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

    A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

    Wave election analysis

    See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

    The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

    Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

    Applying this definition to gubernatorial elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

    The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 gubernatorial waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

    Gubernatorial wave elections
    Year President Party Election type Gubernatorial seats change Elections analyzed[4]
    1970 Nixon R First midterm -12 35
    1922 Harding R First midterm -11 33
    1932 Hoover R Presidential -10 35
    1920 Wilson D Presidential -10 36
    1994 Clinton D First midterm -10 36
    1930 Hoover R First midterm -9 33
    1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -9 33
    1966 Johnson D First midterm[5] -9 35
    1954 Eisenhower R First midterm -8 33
    1982 Reagan R First midterm -7 36
    2010 Obama D First midterm -7 33

    State overview

    Partisan control

    This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Massachusetts heading into the 2018 elections.

    Congressional delegation

    State executives

    State legislature

    • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Massachusetts General Court. They had a 117-34 majority in the state House and a 31-7 majority in the state Senate.

    Trifecta status

    • Massachusetts was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Charlie Baker (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

    2018 elections

    See also: Massachusetts elections, 2018

    Massachusetts held elections for the following positions in 2018:

    Demographics

    Demographic data for Massachusetts
     MassachusettsU.S.
    Total population:6,784,240316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):7,8003,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:79.6%73.6%
    Black/African American:7.1%12.6%
    Asian:6%5.1%
    Native American:0.2%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:2.9%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:10.6%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:89.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:40.5%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$68,563$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:13.1%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Massachusetts.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    As of July 2016, Massachusetts' three largest cities were Boston (pop. est. 685,000), Worcester (pop. est. 186,000), and Springfield (pop. est. 155,000).[6]

    State election history

    This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Massachusetts Secretary of State.

    Historical elections

    Presidential elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Massachusetts every year from 2000 to 2016.

    Election results (President of the United States), Massachusetts 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 60.0% Republican Party Donald Trump 32.8% 27.2%
    2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 37.5% 23.2%
    2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 61.8% Republican Party John McCain 36.0% 25.8%
    2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 61.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 36.8% 25.1%
    2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 59.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 32.5% 27.3%

    U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

    Election results (U.S. Senator), Massachusetts 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2014 Democratic Party Ed Markey 61.9% Republican Party Brian Herr 38.0% 23.9%
    2013[7] Democratic Party Ed Markey 57.3% Republican Party Gabriel Gomez 44.6% 12.7%
    2012 Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren 53.7% Republican Party Scott Brown 46.2% 7.5%
    2010[7] Republican Party Scott Brown 51.9% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 47.1% 4.8%
    2008 Democratic Party John Kerry 65.9% Republican Party Jeffrey Beatty 30.9% 35.0%
    2006 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 69.3% Republican Party Kenneth Chase 30.5% 38.8%
    2002 Democratic Party John Kerry Unopposed -- -- Unopposed
    2000 Democratic Party Ted Kennedy 72.7% Republican Party Jack E. Robinson III 12.9% 59.8%

    Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Massachusetts.

    Election results (Governor), Massachusetts 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2014 Republican Party Charlie Baker 48.4% Democratic Party Martha Coakley 46.5% 1.9%
    2010 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 48.4% Republican Party Charlie Baker 42.0% 6.4%
    2006 Democratic Party Deval Patrick 55.6% Republican Party Kerry Healey 35.3% 20.3%
    2002 Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.8% Democratic Party Shannon P. O'Brien 44.9% 4.9%

    Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

    Congressional delegation, Massachusetts 2000-2016
    Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
    2016 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
    2014 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
    2012 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 9 100% D+9
    2010 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
    2008 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
    2006 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
    2004 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
    2002 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10
    2000 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 10 100% D+10

    Trifectas, 1992-2017

    A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

    Massachusetts Party Control: 1992-2024
    Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
    Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D
    Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
    House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties by state

    There are no Pivot Counties in Massachusetts. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

    In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Massachusetts with 60 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 32.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Republican 36.2 percent of the time and Democratic 34.4 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Massachusetts voted Democratic all five times.[8]

    Presidential results by legislative district

    The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Massachusetts. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[9][10]

    In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 135 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 31.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 141 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 34.1 points. Clinton won 21 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
    In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 4.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 160 state House districts in Massachusetts with an average margin of victory of 5.5 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Massachusetts governor election 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    Massachusetts gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 - Google News

    See also

    Massachusetts government:

    Elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ WBUR, "WBUR Poll: Survey of 504 registered voters in Massachusetts," accessed June 29, 2017
    2. ↑ The Salem News, "Baker, Polito to decide on re-election bid this fall," May 23, 2017
    3. ↑ Boston Globe, "Democrats play wait-and-see on gubernatorial field," March 13, 2017
    4. ↑ The number of gubernatorial seats up for election varies, with as many as 36 seats and as few as 12 seats being up in a single even-numbered year.
    5. ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
    6. ↑ Massachusetts Demographics, "Massachusetts Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
    7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Special election
    8. ↑ 270towin.com, "Massachusetts," accessed June 29, 2017
    9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
    10. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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