Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018
General election
General election for Governor of Idaho
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Brad Little (R) | 59.8 | 361,661 |
 | Paulette E. Jordan (D)  | 38.2 | 231,081 | |
 | Bev Boeck (L) | 1.1 | 6,551 | |
| Walter Bayes (Constitution Party) | 1.0 | 5,787 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 51 | ||
| Total votes: 605,131 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 12
- Early voting: Oct. 22 - Nov. 2
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2022 →
← 2014
|
| Governor of Idaho |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 9, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent(s): Butch Otter (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Idaho |
| Race ratings |
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| Federal and state primary competitiveness State executive elections in 2018 Impact of term limits in 2018 State government trifectas State government triplexes Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| Idaho executive elections |
| Governor Lieutenant governor |
Idaho held an election for governor on November 6, 2018. The candidate filing deadline was March 9, 2018.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
For more information about gubernatorial elections in 2018, click here.
| SETTING THE STAGE | |
Idaho was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election. Click here for more information on other 2018 gubernatorial elections.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for Governor of Idaho
Brad Little defeated Paulette E. Jordan, Bev Boeck, and Walter Bayes in the general election for Governor of Idaho on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Brad Little (R) | 59.8 | 361,661 |
| Paulette E. Jordan (D) | 38.2 | 231,081 | |
| Bev Boeck (L) | 1.1 | 6,551 | |
| Walter Bayes (Constitution Party) | 1.0 | 5,787 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 51 | ||
| Total votes: 605,131 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for Governor of Idaho
Paulette E. Jordan defeated A.J. Balukoff and Peter Dill in the Democratic primary for Governor of Idaho on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Paulette E. Jordan | 58.4 | 38,505 |
 | A.J. Balukoff | 40.1 | 26,423 | |
 | Peter Dill | 1.4 | 954 | |
| Total votes: 65,882 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for Governor of Idaho
The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for Governor of Idaho on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Brad Little | 37.3 | 72,548 |
 | Raúl Labrador | 32.6 | 63,478 | |
| Tommy Ahlquist | 26.2 | 51,008 | |
 | Lisa Marie | 1.7 | 3,397 | |
 | Steven Pankey | 1.4 | 2,704 | |
 | Harley Brown | 0.4 | 874 | |
| Ben Cannady | 0.3 | 527 | |
| Total votes: 194,536 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Context of the 2018 election
Race rating
| Race ratings: Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 5, 2018 | October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| Idaho Governor, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Brad Little (R) | Paulette Jordan (D) | Third-party candidate | Unsure | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Idaho Voices for Change Now (July 12-15, 2018) | 38% | 28% | 7% | 26% | +/-2.77 | 1,061 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Idaho Governor, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Raul Labrador | Brad Little | Tommy Ahlquist | Lisa Marie | Lawrence Wasden | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||
| Idaho Politics Weekly (November 8-15, 2017) | 17% | 21% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 41% | +/-3.94 | 619 | |||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Republican winning streak
Little's victory in the general election was the seventh in a series beginning with Philip Batt's (R) victory in 1994, continuing a record-long Republican winning streak in Idaho elections. The longest Democratic winning streak in state history was six elections, occurring between 1970 and 1990.
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to gubernatorial elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 gubernatorial waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| Gubernatorial wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Gubernatorial seats change | Elections analyzed[1] | |
| 1970 | Nixon | R | First midterm | -12 | 35 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -11 | 33 | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -10 | 35 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -10 | 36 | |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -10 | 36 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -9 | 33 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -9 | 33 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[2] | -9 | 35 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -8 | 33 | |
| 1982 | Reagan | R | First midterm | -7 | 36 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -7 | 33 | |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Idaho heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Idaho.
- Republicans held two of the two U.S. House seats in Idaho.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held seven of 14 state executive positions; the other seven were nonpartisan offices.
- Heading into the 2018 election, the sitting governor of Idaho was Butch Otter (R).
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Idaho State Legislature. They had a 59-11 majority in the state House and a 29-6 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
Idaho was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House.
2018 elections
- See also: Idaho elections, 2018
Idaho held elections for the following offices in 2018:
- U.S. House
- Governor
- Six lower state executive offices
- State Senate
- State House
- State Supreme Court
- Intermediate appellate courts
- Local judges
- School boards
- Municipal elections
Demographics
| Demographic data for Idaho | ||
|---|---|---|
| Idaho | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 1,652,828 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 82,643 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 91.7% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 0.6% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.3% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.6% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 11.8% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 89.5% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 25.9% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $47,583 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 16.9% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Idaho. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Idaho had a population of approximately 1,716,943 people, and its three largest cities were Boise (pop. est. 223,154), Meridian (pop. est. 95,623), and Nampa (pop. est. 91,382).[3]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Idaho from 2000 to 2016.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Idaho every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Idaho 2000-2016[4] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
59.26% | Hillary Clinton |
27.49% | 31.77% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
64.53% | Barack Obama |
32.62% | 31.91% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
61.52% | Barack Obama |
36.09% | 25.43% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
68.38% | John Kerry |
30.26% | 38.12% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
67.17% | Al Gore |
27.64% | 39.53% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Idaho from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Idaho 2000-2016[4] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Mike Crapo |
66.13% | Jerry Sturgill |
27.73% | 38.40% |
| 2014 | Jim Risch |
65.33% | Nels Mitchell |
34.67% | 30.66% |
| 2010 | Mike Crapo |
71.18% | Tom Sullivan |
24.93% | 46.25% |
| 2008 | Jim Risch |
57.65% | Larry LaRocco |
34.11% | 23.54% |
| 2004 | Mike Crapo |
99.18% | Scott McClure |
0.82% | 98.36% |
| 2002 | Larry Craig |
65.16% | Allan Blinken |
32.55% | 32.61% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2014
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2014. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Idaho.
| Election results (Governor), Idaho 2000-2016[5] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | C. L. 'Butch' Otter |
53.52% | A. J. Balukoff |
38.55% | 14.97% |
| 2010 | C. L. 'Butch' Otter |
59.11% | Keith Allred |
32.85% | 26.26% |
| 2006 | C. L. 'Butch' Otter |
52.67% | Jerry Brady |
44.11% | 8.56% |
| 2002 | C. Dirk Kempthorne |
56.28% | Jerry Brady |
41.73% | 14.55% |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Idaho Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Thirty years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
No counties in Idaho are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Idaho with 59.3 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.5 percent. Independent candidate Evan McMullin received 6.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican 70 percent of the time and Democratic 30 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Idaho voted Republican all five times.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Idaho. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 13.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 4 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 17 points. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 38.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 31 out of 35 state House districts in Idaho with an average margin of victory of 39 points. Trump won three seats controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | |
| 1 | 33.87% | 62.34% | R+28.5 | 26.01% | 65.46% | R+39.5 | |
| 2 | 26.93% | 70.62% | R+43.7 | 20.64% | 71.95% | R+51.3 | |
| 3 | 29.14% | 68.14% | R+39 | 21.06% | 70.57% | R+49.5 | |
| 4 | 39.16% | 57.97% | R+18.8 | 32.30% | 58.13% | R+25.8 | |
| 5 | 45.88% | 49.34% | R+3.5 | 39.67% | 46.41% | R+6.7 | |
| 6 | 37.09% | 60.34% | R+23.3 | 27.14% | 63.35% | R+36.2 | |
| 7 | 30.10% | 66.90% | R+36.8 | 19.98% | 72.55% | R+52.6 | |
| 8 | 29.55% | 67.36% | R+37.8 | 21.50% | 69.20% | R+47.7 | |
| 9 | 25.68% | 71.70% | R+46 | 17.21% | 74.09% | R+56.9 | |
| 10 | 38.47% | 58.37% | R+19.9 | 29.81% | 58.12% | R+28.3 | |
| 11 | 23.55% | 73.82% | R+50.3 | 17.04% | 72.09% | R+55.1 | |
| 12 | 31.70% | 65.46% | R+33.8 | 24.33% | 62.75% | R+38.4 | |
| 13 | 30.45% | 66.85% | R+36.4 | 25.08% | 62.48% | R+37.4 | |
| 14 | 28.40% | 69.37% | R+41 | 25.20% | 62.69% | R+37.5 | |
| 15 | 40.27% | 56.38% | R+16.1 | 36.12% | 49.48% | R+13.4 | |
| 16 | 51.36% | 45.03% | D+6.3 | 47.20% | 39.26% | D+7.9 | |
| 17 | 54.87% | 40.25% | D+14.6 | 48.92% | 35.61% | D+13.3 | |
| 18 | 50.74% | 45.74% | D+5 | 49.32% | 37.45% | D+11.9 | |
| 19 | 62.17% | 34.02% | D+28.2 | 61.76% | 27.06% | D+34.7 | |
| 20 | 31.96% | 65.66% | R+33.7 | 27.79% | 57.58% | R+29.8 | |
| 21 | 33.56% | 63.72% | R+30.2 | 29.26% | 57.07% | R+27.8 | |
| 22 | 28.40% | 68.66% | R+40.3 | 21.33% | 65.07% | R+43.7 | |
| 23 | 27.41% | 69.63% | R+42.2 | 18.40% | 72.24% | R+53.8 | |
| 24 | 30.28% | 66.54% | R+36.3 | 24.58% | 61.74% | R+37.2 | |
| 25 | 23.52% | 73.82% | R+50.3 | 17.71% | 70.40% | R+52.7 | |
| 26 | 45.05% | 52.29% | R+7.2 | 42.82% | 47.54% | R+4.7 | |
| 27 | 16.19% | 81.96% | R+65.8 | 14.64% | 72.01% | R+57.4 | |
| 28 | 31.76% | 66.06% | R+34.3 | 25.38% | 57.30% | R+31.9 | |
| 29 | 43.30% | 53.10% | R+9.8 | 36.52% | 46.08% | R+9.6 | |
| 30 | 19.06% | 78.92% | R+59.9 | 17.63% | 62.15% | R+44.5 | |
| 31 | 21.71% | 76.35% | R+54.6 | 17.59% | 65.61% | R+48 | |
| 32 | 17.05% | 81.10% | R+64.1 | 17.13% | 65.98% | R+48.9 | |
| 33 | 30.56% | 66.37% | R+35.8 | 26.72% | 54.03% | R+27.3 | |
| 34 | 6.92% | 92.00% | R+85.1 | 8.01% | 59.90% | R+51.9 | |
| 35 | 12.96% | 85.32% | R+72.4 | 9.79% | 72.97% | R+63.2 | |
| Total | 32.62% | 64.53% | R+31.9 | 27.49% | 59.26% | R+31.8 | |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
Recent news
The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Idaho governor election 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.
See also
|
Idaho government: |
Elections: |
Ballotpedia exclusives: |
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ The number of gubernatorial seats up for election varies, with as many as 36 seats and as few as 12 seats being up in a single even-numbered year.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Nampa city, Idaho; Meridian city, Idaho; Boise City city, Idaho; Idaho," accessed January 8, 2018
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Federal Election Commission, "Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed January 5, 2018
- ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Idaho Election Results," accessed January 5, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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