Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	189.0	15	6	29.3%	4.8%	2.67	2.63	5.5	5.7	75.5	114.7
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	165.0	11	8	34.1%	6.3%	3.00	2.56	5.4	4.6	61.1	96.8
3	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	206.0	16	8	21.9%	5.8%	2.88	3.42	4.2	6.4	71.4	96.2
4	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	200.1	14	7	24.1%	6.3%	2.88	3.37	4.2	5.5	69.5	94.7
5	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	192.1	12	10	24.1%	3.0%	3.28	2.87	5.2	4.2	56.8	91.6
6	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	189.1	11	10	27.9%	8.2%	3.38	2.99	4.9	4.8	56.5	88.2
7	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	204.0	10	8	24.1%	5.3%	3.04	3.41	3.8	5.2	62.3	87.1
8	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	185.0	12	10	22.9%	6.2%	3.16	3.08	4.4	4.2	57.1	86.4
9	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	194.0	13	14	24.1%	7.0%	3.52	3.65	3.5	3.4	53.2	71.5
10	Tanner Bibee	110.1	8	4	27.8%	6.6%	3.59	3.35	2.3	2.0	31.7	45.8	176.1	12	7	26.5%	6.9%	3.63	3.48	3.4	3.1	48.4	68.5

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	189.0	15	6	29.3%	4.8%	2.67	2.63	5.5	5.7	75.5	114.7
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	165.0	11	8	34.1%	6.3%	3.00	2.56	5.4	4.6	61.1	96.8
3	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	206.0	16	8	21.9%	5.8%	2.88	3.42	4.2	6.4	71.4	96.2
4	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	200.1	14	7	24.1%	6.3%	2.88	3.37	4.2	5.5	69.5	94.7
5	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	192.1	12	10	24.1%	3.0%	3.28	2.87	5.2	4.2	56.8	91.6
6	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	189.1	11	10	27.9%	8.2%	3.38	2.99	4.9	4.8	56.5	88.2
7	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	204.0	10	8	24.1%	5.3%	3.04	3.41	3.8	5.2	62.3	87.1
8	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	185.0	12	10	22.9%	6.2%	3.16	3.08	4.4	4.2	57.1	86.4
9	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	194.0	13	14	24.1%	7.0%	3.52	3.65	3.5	3.4	53.2	71.5
10	Tanner Bibee	110.1	8	4	27.8%	6.6%	3.59	3.35	2.3	2.0	31.7	45.8	176.1	12	7	26.5%	6.9%	3.63	3.48	3.4	3.1	48.4	68.5

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	175.0	19	5	31.7%	6.0%	2.93	2.52	5.3	5.4	71.7	110.1
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	189.1	15	7	26.2%	7.3%	3.09	3.31	4.7	5.1	64.8	89.8
3	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	206.0	13	11	20.7%	5.8%	3.49	3.03	4.4	4.0	53.7	87.3
4	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	170.0	13	7	32.9%	7.0%	3.39	2.89	4.4	3.9	56.2	86.5
5	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	185.0	14	8	23.2%	6.2%	3.16	3.17	4.3	4.7	59.1	86.4
6	Reynaldo López	101.1	7	4	24.2%	8.7%	2.13	3.17	2.3	4.1	43.6	58.6	163.1	12	7	24.4%	8.7%	2.65	3.28	3.4	5.3	62.1	84.2
7	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	189.0	14	11	31.6%	8.2%	3.67	3.21	4.2	3.1	55.9	83.0
8	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	176.1	15	9	27.9%	6.1%	3.47	3.19	3.8	3.1	55.1	80.8
9	Michael King	118.0	8	6	27.5%	8.8%	3.28	3.57	2.3	2.3	37.5	49.7	194.0	13	9	28.3%	8.8%	3.39	3.58	3.6	3.5	59.9	79.6
10	Shota Imanaga	104.0	8	2	25.5%	4.0%	2.86	3.24	2.5	2.7	37.8	52.3	167.0	12	4	25.5%	4.8%	3.13	3.27	3.8	3.9	55.0	77.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	175.0	19	5	31.7%	6.0%	2.93	2.52	5.3	5.4	71.7	110.1
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	189.1	15	7	26.2%	7.3%	3.09	3.31	4.7	5.1	64.8	89.8
3	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	206.0	13	11	20.7%	5.8%	3.49	3.03	4.4	4.0	53.7	87.3
4	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	170.0	13	7	32.9%	7.0%	3.39	2.89	4.4	3.9	56.2	86.5
5	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	185.0	14	8	23.2%	6.2%	3.16	3.17	4.3	4.7	59.1	86.4
6	Reynaldo López	101.1	7	4	24.2%	8.7%	2.13	3.17	2.3	4.1	43.6	58.6	163.1	12	7	24.4%	8.7%	2.65	3.28	3.4	5.3	62.1	84.2
7	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	189.0	14	11	31.6%	8.2%	3.67	3.21	4.2	3.1	55.9	83.0
8	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	176.1	15	9	27.9%	6.1%	3.47	3.19	3.8	3.1	55.1	80.8
9	Michael King	118.0	8	6	27.5%	8.8%	3.28	3.57	2.3	2.3	37.5	49.7	194.0	13	9	28.3%	8.8%	3.39	3.58	3.6	3.5	59.9	79.6
10	Shota Imanaga	104.0	8	2	25.5%	4.0%	2.86	3.24	2.5	2.7	37.8	52.3	167.0	12	4	25.5%	4.8%	3.13	3.27	3.8	3.9	55.0	77.8

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG