Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	192.0	16	6	29.5%	5.0%	2.63	2.68	5.6	5.9	78.6	117.5
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	167.0	11	9	34.2%	6.3%	3.02	2.53	5.5	4.8	61.4	98.0
3	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	201.1	15	8	24.1%	6.3%	2.86	3.43	4.1	5.4	71.2	95.2
4	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	208.0	16	8	21.9%	5.9%	2.94	3.47	4.3	6.4	70.6	94.3
5	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	193.1	12	11	24.3%	3.0%	3.26	2.93	5.1	4.1	57.5	91.1
6	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	192.1	11	10	28.0%	8.3%	3.37	3.00	4.9	4.9	57.4	89.4
7	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	188.0	12	10	22.5%	6.3%	3.16	3.08	4.5	4.3	57.6	87.3
8	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	204.0	10	9	24.3%	5.3%	3.04	3.45	3.8	5.1	62.5	86.3
9	Jack Flaherty	100.1	7	5	32.4%	4.3%	3.14	3.16	2.3	2.5	34.8	49.8	169.1	11	9	29.8%	5.9%	3.46	3.42	3.3	3.6	50.9	71.1
10	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	195.0	13	14	23.8%	7.0%	3.55	3.66	3.3	3.4	52.6	70.9

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	192.0	16	6	29.5%	5.0%	2.63	2.68	5.6	5.9	78.6	117.5
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	167.0	11	9	34.2%	6.3%	3.02	2.53	5.5	4.8	61.4	98.0
3	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	201.1	15	8	24.1%	6.3%	2.86	3.43	4.1	5.4	71.2	95.2
4	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	208.0	16	8	21.9%	5.9%	2.94	3.47	4.3	6.4	70.6	94.3
5	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	193.1	12	11	24.3%	3.0%	3.26	2.93	5.1	4.1	57.5	91.1
6	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	192.1	11	10	28.0%	8.3%	3.37	3.00	4.9	4.9	57.4	89.4
7	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	188.0	12	10	22.5%	6.3%	3.16	3.08	4.5	4.3	57.6	87.3
8	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	204.0	10	9	24.3%	5.3%	3.04	3.45	3.8	5.1	62.5	86.3
9	Jack Flaherty	100.1	7	5	32.4%	4.3%	3.14	3.16	2.3	2.5	34.8	49.8	169.1	11	9	29.8%	5.9%	3.46	3.42	3.3	3.6	50.9	71.1
10	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	195.0	13	14	23.8%	7.0%	3.55	3.66	3.3	3.4	52.6	70.9

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	178.0	18	6	31.8%	5.9%	2.88	2.50	5.3	5.6	72.5	112.0
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	191.1	15	7	26.3%	7.1%	3.01	3.34	4.7	5.3	67.0	91.6
3	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	173.0	13	8	32.9%	7.0%	3.38	2.90	4.7	4.0	57.0	87.8
4	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	206.0	12	12	20.7%	5.7%	3.49	3.04	4.3	3.8	52.8	86.3
5	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	186.0	14	8	23.0%	6.3%	3.14	3.26	4.4	4.7	59.6	85.3
6	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	191.0	14	11	31.5%	8.1%	3.63	3.21	4.3	3.2	56.9	84.3
7	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	177.1	15	9	28.1%	6.2%	3.50	3.17	4.0	3.1	54.9	81.1
8	Reynaldo López	101.1	7	4	24.2%	8.7%	2.13	3.17	2.3	4.1	43.6	58.6	166.1	12	7	24.2%	8.7%	2.82	3.37	3.2	5.1	59.8	80.7
9	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.64	3.3	2.8	34.4	56.9	172.0	11	8	20.3%	6.6%	3.24	3.01	4.4	4.0	49.4	77.9
10	Paul Skenes	66.0	6	0	34.9%	5.1%	1.91	2.56	1.9	3.0	33.9	48.2	129.0	10	3	31.4%	6.0%	2.65	2.80	3.4	4.3	52.6	77.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	178.0	18	6	31.8%	5.9%	2.88	2.50	5.3	5.6	72.5	112.0
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	191.1	15	7	26.3%	7.1%	3.01	3.34	4.7	5.3	67.0	91.6
3	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	173.0	13	8	32.9%	7.0%	3.38	2.90	4.7	4.0	57.0	87.8
4	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	206.0	12	12	20.7%	5.7%	3.49	3.04	4.3	3.8	52.8	86.3
5	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	186.0	14	8	23.0%	6.3%	3.14	3.26	4.4	4.7	59.6	85.3
6	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	191.0	14	11	31.5%	8.1%	3.63	3.21	4.3	3.2	56.9	84.3
7	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	177.1	15	9	28.1%	6.2%	3.50	3.17	4.0	3.1	54.9	81.1
8	Reynaldo López	101.1	7	4	24.2%	8.7%	2.13	3.17	2.3	4.1	43.6	58.6	166.1	12	7	24.2%	8.7%	2.82	3.37	3.2	5.1	59.8	80.7
9	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.64	3.3	2.8	34.4	56.9	172.0	11	8	20.3%	6.6%	3.24	3.01	4.4	4.0	49.4	77.9
10	Paul Skenes	66.0	6	0	34.9%	5.1%	1.91	2.56	1.9	3.0	33.9	48.2	129.0	10	3	31.4%	6.0%	2.65	2.80	3.4	4.3	52.6	77.1

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG