Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	188.0	16	6	30.4%	5.0%	2.54	2.57	5.7	6.0	79.6	120.0
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	164.0	9	10	34.1%	6.2%	3.07	2.56	5.4	4.5	57.4	92.8
3	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	189.1	12	11	24.6%	3.0%	3.23	2.88	5.3	4.4	57.2	91.3
4	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	198.1	15	8	23.1%	6.3%	2.91	3.53	4.0	5.5	68.6	90.1
5	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	204.0	16	8	21.8%	5.8%	3.09	3.50	4.1	5.9	66.1	88.8
6	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	192.1	12	10	28.0%	8.1%	3.42	3.05	5.0	4.7	57.3	88.3
7	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	191.0	12	10	22.1%	6.3%	3.16	3.16	4.5	4.3	58.1	86.5
8	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	199.0	11	9	24.7%	5.0%	3.12	3.44	4.0	5.1	60.7	84.0
9	Jack Flaherty	100.1	7	5	32.4%	4.3%	3.14	3.16	2.3	2.5	34.8	49.8	170.1	12	9	30.3%	5.7%	3.44	3.34	3.6	3.7	52.8	74.7
10	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	194.0	13	14	23.4%	7.0%	3.62	3.72	3.4	3.4	50.7	67.6

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	188.0	16	6	30.4%	5.0%	2.54	2.57	5.7	6.0	79.6	120.0
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	164.0	9	10	34.1%	6.2%	3.07	2.56	5.4	4.5	57.4	92.8
3	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	189.1	12	11	24.6%	3.0%	3.23	2.88	5.3	4.4	57.2	91.3
4	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	198.1	15	8	23.1%	6.3%	2.91	3.53	4.0	5.5	68.6	90.1
5	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	204.0	16	8	21.8%	5.8%	3.09	3.50	4.1	5.9	66.1	88.8
6	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	192.1	12	10	28.0%	8.1%	3.42	3.05	5.0	4.7	57.3	88.3
7	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	191.0	12	10	22.1%	6.3%	3.16	3.16	4.5	4.3	58.1	86.5
8	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	199.0	11	9	24.7%	5.0%	3.12	3.44	4.0	5.1	60.7	84.0
9	Jack Flaherty	100.1	7	5	32.4%	4.3%	3.14	3.16	2.3	2.5	34.8	49.8	170.1	12	9	30.3%	5.7%	3.44	3.34	3.6	3.7	52.8	74.7
10	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	194.0	13	14	23.4%	7.0%	3.62	3.72	3.4	3.4	50.7	67.6

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	179.0	19	5	32.2%	6.0%	2.97	2.54	5.6	5.4	72.5	111.5
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	193.1	16	8	26.1%	7.0%	3.03	3.39	4.7	5.3	68.0	91.8
3	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	170.0	14	7	33.0%	6.9%	3.44	2.91	4.7	3.8	56.1	86.2
4	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	195.0	15	11	32.1%	8.0%	3.69	3.20	4.6	3.4	57.8	86.0
5	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	201.0	12	11	20.5%	5.6%	3.54	2.99	4.5	3.8	50.5	84.2
6	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	186.0	14	9	22.2%	6.3%	3.29	3.34	4.2	4.3	56.0	80.0
7	Paul Skenes	66.0	6	0	34.9%	5.1%	1.91	2.56	1.9	3.0	33.9	48.2	129.0	10	3	31.8%	5.9%	2.58	2.78	3.7	4.5	53.7	78.4
8	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	174.1	14	10	28.1%	6.2%	3.62	3.12	4.1	2.8	51.0	77.6
9	Michael King	118.0	8	6	27.5%	8.8%	3.28	3.57	2.3	2.3	37.5	49.7	185.0	13	9	27.1%	8.2%	3.45	3.56	3.6	3.4	55.3	74.6
10	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.64	3.3	2.8	34.4	56.9	166.0	11	8	19.7%	6.4%	3.31	3.06	4.2	3.5	46.5	73.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	179.0	19	5	32.2%	6.0%	2.97	2.54	5.6	5.4	72.5	111.5
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	193.1	16	8	26.1%	7.0%	3.03	3.39	4.7	5.3	68.0	91.8
3	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	170.0	14	7	33.0%	6.9%	3.44	2.91	4.7	3.8	56.1	86.2
4	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	195.0	15	11	32.1%	8.0%	3.69	3.20	4.6	3.4	57.8	86.0
5	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	201.0	12	11	20.5%	5.6%	3.54	2.99	4.5	3.8	50.5	84.2
6	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	186.0	14	9	22.2%	6.3%	3.29	3.34	4.2	4.3	56.0	80.0
7	Paul Skenes	66.0	6	0	34.9%	5.1%	1.91	2.56	1.9	3.0	33.9	48.2	129.0	10	3	31.8%	5.9%	2.58	2.78	3.7	4.5	53.7	78.4
8	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	174.1	14	10	28.1%	6.2%	3.62	3.12	4.1	2.8	51.0	77.6
9	Michael King	118.0	8	6	27.5%	8.8%	3.28	3.57	2.3	2.3	37.5	49.7	185.0	13	9	27.1%	8.2%	3.45	3.56	3.6	3.4	55.3	74.6
10	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.64	3.3	2.8	34.4	56.9	166.0	11	8	19.7%	6.4%	3.31	3.06	4.2	3.5	46.5	73.1

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG