Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	192.0	16	7	29.8%	5.1%	2.67	2.66	5.6	5.8	77.8	117.1
2	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	201.1	15	7	24.5%	6.4%	2.82	3.41	4.1	5.7	72.5	96.9
3	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	206.0	16	8	21.7%	5.9%	2.97	3.49	4.0	6.2	69.2	92.4
4	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	195.1	12	11	24.3%	2.9%	3.32	2.98	5.1	4.1	56.6	89.6
5	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	193.1	11	10	27.9%	8.5%	3.45	3.10	4.8	4.7	55.9	86.0
6	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	205.0	11	8	24.9%	5.3%	3.12	3.47	3.8	4.9	62.4	85.7
7	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	164.0	9	9	33.1%	6.8%	3.24	2.77	5.1	4.2	53.9	85.4
8	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	185.0	12	10	22.4%	6.5%	3.16	3.13	4.3	4.2	56.8	85.1
9	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	199.0	13	14	24.6%	7.0%	3.48	3.66	3.5	3.7	55.4	73.9
10	Joe Ryan	120.1	6	6	26.9%	3.9%	3.67	3.42	2.8	2.0	30.1	44.5	194.1	11	10	27.5%	4.7%	3.71	3.50	4.2	3.1	49.6	71.1

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.51	3.8	4.2	55.1	82.3	192.0	16	7	29.8%	5.1%	2.67	2.66	5.6	5.8	77.8	117.1
2	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.3	201.1	15	7	24.5%	6.4%	2.82	3.41	4.1	5.7	72.5	96.9
3	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.22	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.5	206.0	16	8	21.7%	5.9%	2.97	3.49	4.0	6.2	69.2	92.4
4	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.74	3.6	2.9	36.8	60.9	195.1	12	11	24.3%	2.9%	3.32	2.98	5.1	4.1	56.6	89.6
5	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.75	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.5	193.1	11	10	27.9%	8.5%	3.45	3.10	4.8	4.7	55.9	86.0
6	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.36	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.2	205.0	11	8	24.9%	5.3%	3.12	3.47	3.8	4.9	62.4	85.7
7	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.34	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.2	164.0	9	9	33.1%	6.8%	3.24	2.77	5.1	4.2	53.9	85.4
8	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.83	3.3	3.2	43.9	66.7	185.0	12	10	22.4%	6.5%	3.16	3.13	4.3	4.2	56.8	85.1
9	Luis Castillo	124.0	8	10	23.5%	6.9%	3.55	3.72	2.1	2.3	32.9	43.7	199.0	13	14	24.6%	7.0%	3.48	3.66	3.5	3.7	55.4	73.9
10	Joe Ryan	120.1	6	6	26.9%	3.9%	3.67	3.42	2.8	2.0	30.1	44.5	194.1	11	10	27.5%	4.7%	3.71	3.50	4.2	3.1	49.6	71.1

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	177.0	18	6	31.4%	5.9%	3.00	2.60	5.1	5.3	69.7	107.0
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	193.1	15	8	26.6%	6.8%	2.98	3.26	4.9	5.5	68.3	94.9
3	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	174.0	13	8	33.0%	7.2%	3.41	2.91	4.6	3.9	56.6	87.4
4	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	207.0	12	12	20.9%	5.7%	3.52	3.02	4.3	3.8	52.5	86.6
5	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	188.0	14	8	23.1%	6.5%	3.16	3.27	4.3	4.7	59.8	85.6
6	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	179.1	15	10	28.2%	6.3%	3.52	3.09	4.0	3.1	55.1	83.2
7	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	192.0	13	11	31.2%	8.5%	3.70	3.28	4.2	3.2	54.3	80.3
8	Reynaldo López	101.1	7	4	24.2%	8.7%	2.13	3.17	2.3	4.1	43.6	58.6	166.1	11	7	24.7%	8.8%	2.82	3.42	3.2	5.1	59.0	78.9
9	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.64	3.3	2.8	34.4	56.9	170.0	11	8	20.7%	6.6%	3.28	3.07	4.3	3.7	48.5	75.5
10	Shota Imanaga	104.0	8	2	25.5%	4.0%	2.86	3.24	2.5	2.7	37.8	52.3	172.0	12	5	25.2%	5.1%	3.24	3.52	3.4	3.8	53.7	72.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.22	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.9	177.0	18	6	31.4%	5.9%	3.00	2.60	5.1	5.3	69.7	107.0
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.29	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.3	193.1	15	8	26.6%	6.8%	2.98	3.26	4.9	5.5	68.3	94.9
3	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.75	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.0	174.0	13	8	33.0%	7.2%	3.41	2.91	4.6	3.9	56.6	87.4
4	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.92	2.8	2.3	31.2	53.9	207.0	12	12	20.9%	5.7%	3.52	3.02	4.3	3.8	52.5	86.6
5	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.99	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.2	188.0	14	8	23.1%	6.5%	3.16	3.27	4.3	4.7	59.8	85.6
6	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.88	2.7	1.6	34.2	53.3	179.1	15	10	28.2%	6.3%	3.52	3.09	4.0	3.1	55.1	83.2
7	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.10	2.9	2.0	34.9	53.9	192.0	13	11	31.2%	8.5%	3.70	3.28	4.2	3.2	54.3	80.3
8	Reynaldo López	101.1	7	4	24.2%	8.7%	2.13	3.17	2.3	4.1	43.6	58.6	166.1	11	7	24.7%	8.8%	2.82	3.42	3.2	5.1	59.0	78.9
9	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.64	3.3	2.8	34.4	56.9	170.0	11	8	20.7%	6.6%	3.28	3.07	4.3	3.7	48.5	75.5
10	Shota Imanaga	104.0	8	2	25.5%	4.0%	2.86	3.24	2.5	2.7	37.8	52.3	172.0	12	5	25.2%	5.1%	3.24	3.52	3.4	3.8	53.7	72.3

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG