Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 123.0 | 11 | 3 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 2.34 | 2.51 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 55.1 | 82.3 | 195.0 | 16 | 7 | 29.8% | 5.0% | 2.54 | 2.65 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 81.6 | 121.7 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 107.0 | 6 | 6 | 35.2% | 5.4% | 3.03 | 2.34 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 38.5 | 64.2 | 169.0 | 10 | 9 | 34.4% | 6.4% | 2.98 | 2.54 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 61.7 | 98.6 |
| 3 | Seth Lugo | 136.0 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.38 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 56.2 | 75.5 | 210.0 | 16 | 8 | 22.0% | 5.8% | 2.96 | 3.45 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 70.8 | 95.3 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 124.1 | 10 | 4 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 2.39 | 3.44 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 50.7 | 65.3 | 201.1 | 15 | 8 | 24.1% | 6.3% | 2.86 | 3.48 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 71.3 | 94.1 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 122.1 | 7 | 6 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 3.24 | 2.75 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 38.7 | 62.5 | 194.1 | 12 | 10 | 28.0% | 8.3% | 3.34 | 3.06 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 59.6 | 90.6 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 123.1 | 7 | 7 | 24.7% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 2.74 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 36.8 | 60.9 | 194.1 | 11 | 11 | 24.3% | 3.0% | 3.29 | 3.00 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 56.0 | 88.3 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 123.0 | 8 | 6 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.83 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 43.9 | 66.7 | 192.0 | 12 | 10 | 22.1% | 6.3% | 3.14 | 3.15 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 58.7 | 87.5 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 132.0 | 6 | 5 | 24.8% | 5.0% | 2.79 | 3.36 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 43.5 | 60.2 | 204.0 | 10 | 9 | 24.5% | 5.2% | 3.09 | 3.43 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 61.6 | 85.9 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 100.1 | 7 | 5 | 32.4% | 4.3% | 3.14 | 3.16 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 34.8 | 49.8 | 169.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.8% | 5.7% | 3.30 | 3.33 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 53.9 | 75.9 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 120.1 | 6 | 6 | 26.9% | 3.9% | 3.67 | 3.42 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 30.1 | 44.5 | 193.1 | 11 | 10 | 27.2% | 4.6% | 3.63 | 3.44 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 50.9 | 73.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 123.0 | 11 | 3 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 2.34 | 2.51 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 55.1 | 82.3 | 195.0 | 16 | 7 | 29.8% | 5.0% | 2.54 | 2.65 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 81.6 | 121.7 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 107.0 | 6 | 6 | 35.2% | 5.4% | 3.03 | 2.34 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 38.5 | 64.2 | 169.0 | 10 | 9 | 34.4% | 6.4% | 2.98 | 2.54 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 61.7 | 98.6 |
| 3 | Seth Lugo | 136.0 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.38 | 3.22 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 56.2 | 75.5 | 210.0 | 16 | 8 | 22.0% | 5.8% | 2.96 | 3.45 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 70.8 | 95.3 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 124.1 | 10 | 4 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 2.39 | 3.44 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 50.7 | 65.3 | 201.1 | 15 | 8 | 24.1% | 6.3% | 2.86 | 3.48 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 71.3 | 94.1 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | 122.1 | 7 | 6 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 3.24 | 2.75 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 38.7 | 62.5 | 194.1 | 12 | 10 | 28.0% | 8.3% | 3.34 | 3.06 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 59.6 | 90.6 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 123.1 | 7 | 7 | 24.7% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 2.74 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 36.8 | 60.9 | 194.1 | 11 | 11 | 24.3% | 3.0% | 3.29 | 3.00 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 56.0 | 88.3 |
| 7 | Tanner Houck | 123.0 | 8 | 6 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.83 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 43.9 | 66.7 | 192.0 | 12 | 10 | 22.1% | 6.3% | 3.14 | 3.15 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 58.7 | 87.5 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 132.0 | 6 | 5 | 24.8% | 5.0% | 2.79 | 3.36 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 43.5 | 60.2 | 204.0 | 10 | 9 | 24.5% | 5.2% | 3.09 | 3.43 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 61.6 | 85.9 |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | 100.1 | 7 | 5 | 32.4% | 4.3% | 3.14 | 3.16 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 34.8 | 49.8 | 169.1 | 11 | 9 | 29.8% | 5.7% | 3.30 | 3.33 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 53.9 | 75.9 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 120.1 | 6 | 6 | 26.9% | 3.9% | 3.67 | 3.42 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 30.1 | 44.5 | 193.1 | 11 | 10 | 27.2% | 4.6% | 3.63 | 3.44 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 50.9 | 73.6 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 110.0 | 13 | 3 | 32.4% | 5.6% | 2.70 | 2.22 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 49.0 | 76.9 | 180.0 | 18 | 6 | 31.9% | 5.9% | 2.90 | 2.55 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 72.8 | 111.9 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 116.1 | 10 | 4 | 27.0% | 7.5% | 2.71 | 3.29 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 45.7 | 61.3 | 191.1 | 15 | 8 | 26.5% | 7.0% | 2.97 | 3.31 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 68.1 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 109.0 | 8 | 5 | 33.6% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 2.75 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 34.8 | 56.0 | 176.0 | 13 | 8 | 33.0% | 7.1% | 3.32 | 2.82 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 58.9 | 91.8 |
| 4 | Paul Skenes | 66.0 | 6 | 0 | 34.9% | 5.1% | 1.91 | 2.56 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 33.9 | 48.2 | 134.0 | 11 | 3 | 33.8% | 6.1% | 2.28 | 2.60 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 61.8 | 90.1 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 130.0 | 7 | 8 | 20.7% | 6.0% | 3.60 | 2.92 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 53.9 | 206.0 | 12 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.8% | 3.49 | 3.03 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 52.9 | 86.6 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 119.0 | 10 | 5 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 2.87 | 2.99 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 43.1 | 63.2 | 187.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.0% | 6.4% | 3.13 | 3.26 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 60.2 | 85.9 |
| 7 | Dylan Cease | 122.0 | 9 | 8 | 32.5% | 7.6% | 3.76 | 3.10 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 34.9 | 53.9 | 191.0 | 14 | 12 | 31.4% | 8.0% | 3.63 | 3.22 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 56.8 | 84.0 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 106.1 | 10 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.88 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 34.2 | 53.3 | 178.1 | 15 | 10 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 3.54 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 54.7 | 83.2 |
| 9 | Cristopher Sánchez | 109.0 | 7 | 5 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 34.4 | 56.9 | 172.0 | 11 | 8 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 3.19 | 3.01 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 50.5 | 78.9 |
| 10 | Reynaldo López | 101.1 | 7 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.13 | 3.17 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 43.6 | 58.6 | 169.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 2.98 | 3.53 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 56.5 | 74.7 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 110.0 | 13 | 3 | 32.4% | 5.6% | 2.70 | 2.22 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 49.0 | 76.9 | 180.0 | 18 | 6 | 31.9% | 5.9% | 2.90 | 2.55 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 72.8 | 111.9 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 116.1 | 10 | 4 | 27.0% | 7.5% | 2.71 | 3.29 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 45.7 | 61.3 | 191.1 | 15 | 8 | 26.5% | 7.0% | 2.97 | 3.31 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 68.1 | 93.3 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 109.0 | 8 | 5 | 33.6% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 2.75 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 34.8 | 56.0 | 176.0 | 13 | 8 | 33.0% | 7.1% | 3.32 | 2.82 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 58.9 | 91.8 |
| 4 | Paul Skenes | 66.0 | 6 | 0 | 34.9% | 5.1% | 1.91 | 2.56 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 33.9 | 48.2 | 134.0 | 11 | 3 | 33.8% | 6.1% | 2.28 | 2.60 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 61.8 | 90.1 |
| 5 | Logan Webb | 130.0 | 7 | 8 | 20.7% | 6.0% | 3.60 | 2.92 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 53.9 | 206.0 | 12 | 12 | 20.9% | 5.8% | 3.49 | 3.03 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 52.9 | 86.6 |
| 6 | Ranger Suárez | 119.0 | 10 | 5 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 2.87 | 2.99 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 43.1 | 63.2 | 187.0 | 14 | 9 | 23.0% | 6.4% | 3.13 | 3.26 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 60.2 | 85.9 |
| 7 | Dylan Cease | 122.0 | 9 | 8 | 32.5% | 7.6% | 3.76 | 3.10 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 34.9 | 53.9 | 191.0 | 14 | 12 | 31.4% | 8.0% | 3.63 | 3.22 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 56.8 | 84.0 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 106.1 | 10 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.88 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 34.2 | 53.3 | 178.1 | 15 | 10 | 28.4% | 6.2% | 3.54 | 3.06 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 54.7 | 83.2 |
| 9 | Cristopher Sánchez | 109.0 | 7 | 5 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 2.97 | 2.64 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 34.4 | 56.9 | 172.0 | 11 | 8 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 3.19 | 3.01 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 50.5 | 78.9 |
| 10 | Reynaldo López | 101.1 | 7 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.13 | 3.17 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 43.6 | 58.6 | 169.1 | 11 | 8 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 2.98 | 3.53 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 56.5 | 74.7 |
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