Analyst consensus
Consensus forecasts
FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY24 | FY24 | FY25 | FY25 | FY25 | |
Actual | Actual | Consensus | Min | Max | Consensus | Min | Max | |
Headline metrics – consensus and range | ||||||||
RevPAR YoY1 (%) | 36.6 | 16.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | (1.3) | 4.8 |
RevPAR vs 20191 (%) | (3.3) | 10.9 | n/a | n/a |
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Net System Size Growth (%) | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 5.3 |
Revenue from Reportable Segments2 ($m) | 1,843 | 2,164 | 2,312 | 2,274 | 2,333 | 2,472 | 2,391 | 2,536 |
Operating Profit from Reportable Segments2 ($m) | 828 | 1,019 | 1,117 | 1,083 | 1,137 | 1,220 | 1,134 | 1,280 |
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (cents) | 282.3 | 375.7 | 432 | 421 | 438 | 493 | 448 | 518 |
Ordinary Dividend Per Share (cents) | 138.4 | 152.3 | 172 | 139 | 216 | 195 | 155 | 248 |
Other key metrics - consensus | ||||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | 896 | 1,086 | 1,188 | 1,295 |
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Adjusted Interest3 ($m) | (122) | (131) | (160) | (170) | ||||
Adjusted Tax Rate4 (%) | 27 | 28 | 27 | 27 | ||||
Basic Weighted Average Number of Shares5 (m) | 181 | 169 | 161 | 155 | ||||
Net Debt6 | (1,851) | (2,272) | (2,620) | (2,952) | ||||
Notes: Definitions for non-GAAP measures can be found in the ‘use of non-GAAP measures’ section of IHG’s financial reporting, along with reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable line items within the Financial Statements |
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Contributors: based on 16 analysts | ||||||||
Last updated: 8 July 2024 |
The forecasts in consensus are based upon Visible Alpha*, an independent consensus service, from a number of registered investment analysts as at the date above. As such, this is information that is available publicly. In addition to the up to 16 analysts within the Visible Alpha consensus, IHG adjusts to take account of a further 4 analysts that publish forecasts on IHG but which are not part of the Visible Alpha consensus. IHG also adjusts to remove any forecasts that have not been updated in Visible Alpha or in published research since IHG’s last major reporting event, being the Q1 2024 Trading Update released on 3 May 2024.
Visible Alpha and investment analysts have had no access to IHG's internal budgets, forecasts or information which is not generally available. IHG has not commented on individual forecasts nor does it intend to do so in the future. IHG assumes no obligation to update or revise such information and nothing in this analysis should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell shares in IHG or to take any other action or place any reliance on the analysis.
Neither IHG nor any of its subsidiary undertakings nor any director, officer or employee of IHG or any of its subsidiary undertakings accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of forecasts used in this analysis and therefore shall have no liability whatsoever for the consequences of any reliance or actions taken or not taken based on any of the information in this analysis.
Consensus is calculated by taking the simple average of the constituent analyst forecasts.
For further information regarding consensus forecasts please contact the IHG Investor Relations Team.
*Disclaimer:THE INFORMATION PROVIDED BY VISIBLE ALPHA CITED HEREIN PROVIDED “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND. USE OF ANY VISIBLE ALPHA DATA IS AT YOUR OWN RISK AND VISIBLE ALPHA DISCLAIMS ANY LIABILITY FOR USE OF THE VISIBLE ALPHA DATA. ALTHOUGH THE INFORMATION IS OBTAINED OR COMPILED FROM RELAIABLE SOURCES VISIBLE NEITHER CAN NOR DOES GUARANTEE OR MAKE ANY REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, VALIDITY, SEQUENCE, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS OR CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF ANY INFORMATION OR DATA, INCLUDING THIRD-PARTY CONTENT, MADE AVAILABLE HEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL VISIBLE ALPHA BE LIABLE FOR ANY DECISION MADE OR ACTION OR INACTION TAKEN IN RELIANCE ON ANY INFORMATION OR DATA, INCLUDING THIRD-PARTY CONTENT. VISIBLE ALPHA FURTHER EXPLICITLY DISCLAIMS, TO THE FULLEST EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.
Analysts
Company | Name | Contact details |
---|---|---|
AlphaValue | Yi Zhong | T:+33 170 611 071 E:y.zhong@alphavalue.eu |
BofA | Muneeba Kayani |
T:+44 751 102 6109 E:muneeba.kayani@bofa.com |
Barclays | Vicki Stern | T: +44 203 134 6733 E:vicki.stern@barclayscapital.com |
Berenberg Bank | Jack Cummings | T: +44 203 753 3161 E:jack.cummings@berenberg.com |
Bernstein | Richard Clarke | T: +44 207 170 0536 E:richard.clarke@bernstein.com |
Citi | Leo Carrington | T: +44 207 986 0811 E:leo.carrington@citi.com |
Deutsche Bank | Andre Juillard | T: +33 1 4495 6585 E:andre.juillard@db.com |
EXANE BNP PARIBAS | Jaafar Mestari |
T: +44 203 430 8427 |
Goldman Sachs | Ben Andrews | T: +44 207 774 5489 E:ben.andrews@gs.com |
HSBC | Ali Naqvi | T: +44 207 992 2176 E:ali.naqvi@hsbc.com |
JP Morgan | Estelle Weingrod | T: +44 207 742 8502 E:estelle.weingrod@jpmorgan.com |
Jefferies International Limited | Jaina Mistry | T: +44 207 029 8913 E:jmistry@jefferies.com |
Kepler Chevreux | Julien Richer | T:+33 170 397 498 E:jricher@keplercheuvreux.com |
Morgan Stanley | Jamie Rollo | T: +44 207 425 3281 E:jamie.rollo@morganstanley.com |
Morningstar | Dan Wasiolek | T: +1 312 696 3822 E:dan.wasiolek@morningstar.com |
Oddo Asset Management | Johanna Jourdain | T: +33 155 354 263 E:johanna.jourdain@oddo-bhf.com |
Peel Hunt | Ivor Jones | T: +44 771 039 8772 E:ivor.jones@peelhunt.com |
Redburn Atlantic | Alex Brignall | T: +44 207 000 2097 E:alex.brignall@redburn.com |
Societe Generale | Sabrina Blanc | T: +33 142 134 732 E:sabrina.blanc@sgcib.com |
Stifel | Simon Lechipre | T: +33 170 983 968 E:Simon.Lechipre@stifel.com |
UBS | Jarrod Castle | T: +44 207 568 8883 E:jarrod.castle@ubs.com |