Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 123.0 | 11 | 3 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 2.34 | 2.50 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 55.1 | 82.4 | 187.0 | 15 | 6 | 29.2% | 4.8% | 2.70 | 2.62 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 74.3 | 113.3 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 111.0 | 6 | 7 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 3.08 | 2.29 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 39.2 | 66.5 | 167.0 | 11 | 9 | 34.4% | 6.5% | 3.07 | 2.52 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 60.7 | 97.5 |
| 3 | Seth Lugo | 136.0 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.38 | 3.21 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 56.2 | 75.7 | 205.0 | 16 | 8 | 21.8% | 5.9% | 2.90 | 3.43 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 70.7 | 95.1 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 124.1 | 10 | 4 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 2.39 | 3.44 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 50.7 | 65.4 | 198.1 | 14 | 7 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 2.86 | 3.35 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 69.4 | 94.6 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 139.0 | 6 | 6 | 25.0% | 4.9% | 2.72 | 3.27 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 46.7 | 65.7 | 210.0 | 10 | 9 | 24.3% | 5.3% | 2.96 | 3.35 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 65.9 | 92.7 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 123.1 | 7 | 7 | 24.7% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 2.73 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 36.8 | 61.0 | 191.1 | 12 | 10 | 24.1% | 3.0% | 3.25 | 2.87 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 57.2 | 91.8 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | 122.1 | 7 | 6 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 3.24 | 2.74 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 38.7 | 62.6 | 188.1 | 11 | 10 | 27.9% | 8.2% | 3.35 | 2.93 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 56.9 | 89.8 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 123.0 | 8 | 6 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.82 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 43.9 | 66.9 | 184.0 | 12 | 10 | 22.9% | 6.3% | 3.13 | 3.08 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 57.5 | 86.6 |
| 9 | Luis Castillo | 124.0 | 8 | 10 | 23.5% | 6.9% | 3.55 | 3.71 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 32.9 | 43.8 | 193.0 | 13 | 13 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 3.54 | 3.65 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 52.5 | 70.8 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 120.1 | 6 | 6 | 26.9% | 3.9% | 3.67 | 3.41 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 30.1 | 44.6 | 191.1 | 11 | 10 | 26.5% | 4.5% | 3.77 | 3.52 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 47.1 | 67.9 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 123.0 | 11 | 3 | 30.0% | 4.5% | 2.34 | 2.50 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 55.1 | 82.4 | 187.0 | 15 | 6 | 29.2% | 4.8% | 2.70 | 2.62 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 74.3 | 113.3 |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | 111.0 | 6 | 7 | 35.4% | 5.6% | 3.08 | 2.29 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 39.2 | 66.5 | 167.0 | 11 | 9 | 34.4% | 6.5% | 3.07 | 2.52 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 60.7 | 97.5 |
| 3 | Seth Lugo | 136.0 | 12 | 4 | 22.5% | 5.5% | 2.38 | 3.21 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 56.2 | 75.7 | 205.0 | 16 | 8 | 21.8% | 5.9% | 2.90 | 3.43 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 70.7 | 95.1 |
| 4 | Corbin Burnes | 124.1 | 10 | 4 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 2.39 | 3.44 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 50.7 | 65.4 | 198.1 | 14 | 7 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 2.86 | 3.35 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 69.4 | 94.6 |
| 5 | Logan Gilbert | 139.0 | 6 | 6 | 25.0% | 4.9% | 2.72 | 3.27 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 46.7 | 65.7 | 210.0 | 10 | 9 | 24.3% | 5.3% | 2.96 | 3.35 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 65.9 | 92.7 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 123.1 | 7 | 7 | 24.7% | 2.6% | 3.21 | 2.73 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 36.8 | 61.0 | 191.1 | 12 | 10 | 24.1% | 3.0% | 3.25 | 2.87 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 57.2 | 91.8 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | 122.1 | 7 | 6 | 29.1% | 8.0% | 3.24 | 2.74 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 38.7 | 62.6 | 188.1 | 11 | 10 | 27.9% | 8.2% | 3.35 | 2.93 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 56.9 | 89.8 |
| 8 | Tanner Houck | 123.0 | 8 | 6 | 22.5% | 5.7% | 2.71 | 2.82 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 43.9 | 66.9 | 184.0 | 12 | 10 | 22.9% | 6.3% | 3.13 | 3.08 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 57.5 | 86.6 |
| 9 | Luis Castillo | 124.0 | 8 | 10 | 23.5% | 6.9% | 3.55 | 3.71 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 32.9 | 43.8 | 193.0 | 13 | 13 | 24.0% | 6.9% | 3.54 | 3.65 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 52.5 | 70.8 |
| 10 | Joe Ryan | 120.1 | 6 | 6 | 26.9% | 3.9% | 3.67 | 3.41 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 30.1 | 44.6 | 191.1 | 11 | 10 | 26.5% | 4.5% | 3.77 | 3.52 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 47.1 | 67.9 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 110.0 | 13 | 3 | 32.4% | 5.6% | 2.70 | 2.21 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 49.0 | 77.0 | 175.0 | 19 | 5 | 31.7% | 6.0% | 2.93 | 2.51 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 71.7 | 110.3 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 123.1 | 10 | 4 | 27.0% | 7.5% | 2.56 | 3.21 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 49.9 | 67.5 | 195.1 | 15 | 7 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 2.95 | 3.25 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 69.4 | 96.5 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 130.0 | 7 | 8 | 20.7% | 6.0% | 3.60 | 2.91 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 54.1 | 205.0 | 12 | 11 | 20.7% | 5.8% | 3.51 | 2.97 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 52.1 | 87.0 |
| 4 | Ranger Suárez | 119.0 | 10 | 5 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 2.87 | 2.98 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 43.1 | 63.3 | 184.0 | 14 | 8 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 3.13 | 3.18 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 59.5 | 86.6 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 109.0 | 8 | 5 | 33.6% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 2.74 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 34.8 | 56.1 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 32.8% | 7.0% | 3.41 | 2.91 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 55.5 | 85.4 |
| 6 | Reynaldo López | 101.1 | 7 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.13 | 3.16 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 43.6 | 58.7 | 163.1 | 12 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 2.65 | 3.27 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 62.1 | 84.4 |
| 7 | Dylan Cease | 122.0 | 9 | 8 | 32.5% | 7.6% | 3.76 | 3.09 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 34.9 | 54.0 | 188.0 | 14 | 11 | 31.6% | 8.2% | 3.69 | 3.22 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 55.2 | 81.9 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 106.1 | 10 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.87 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 34.2 | 53.4 | 175.1 | 15 | 9 | 28.0% | 6.2% | 3.44 | 3.19 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 55.5 | 81.0 |
| 9 | Michael King | 118.0 | 8 | 6 | 27.5% | 8.8% | 3.28 | 3.56 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 37.5 | 49.8 | 193.0 | 13 | 9 | 28.4% | 8.8% | 3.36 | 3.59 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 60.3 | 79.8 |
| 10 | Shota Imanaga | 104.0 | 8 | 2 | 25.5% | 4.0% | 2.86 | 3.23 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 37.8 | 52.4 | 166.0 | 12 | 4 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 3.14 | 3.26 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 54.4 | 77.3 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 110.0 | 13 | 3 | 32.4% | 5.6% | 2.70 | 2.21 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 49.0 | 77.0 | 175.0 | 19 | 5 | 31.7% | 6.0% | 2.93 | 2.51 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 71.7 | 110.3 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | 123.1 | 10 | 4 | 27.0% | 7.5% | 2.56 | 3.21 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 49.9 | 67.5 | 195.1 | 15 | 7 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 2.95 | 3.25 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 69.4 | 96.5 |
| 3 | Logan Webb | 130.0 | 7 | 8 | 20.7% | 6.0% | 3.60 | 2.91 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 54.1 | 205.0 | 12 | 11 | 20.7% | 5.8% | 3.51 | 2.97 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 52.1 | 87.0 |
| 4 | Ranger Suárez | 119.0 | 10 | 5 | 24.1% | 5.6% | 2.87 | 2.98 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 43.1 | 63.3 | 184.0 | 14 | 8 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 3.13 | 3.18 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 59.5 | 86.6 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | 109.0 | 8 | 5 | 33.6% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 2.74 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 34.8 | 56.1 | 169.0 | 13 | 7 | 32.8% | 7.0% | 3.41 | 2.91 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 55.5 | 85.4 |
| 6 | Reynaldo López | 101.1 | 7 | 4 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 2.13 | 3.16 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 43.6 | 58.7 | 163.1 | 12 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 2.65 | 3.27 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 62.1 | 84.4 |
| 7 | Dylan Cease | 122.0 | 9 | 8 | 32.5% | 7.6% | 3.76 | 3.09 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 34.9 | 54.0 | 188.0 | 14 | 11 | 31.6% | 8.2% | 3.69 | 3.22 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 55.2 | 81.9 |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | 106.1 | 10 | 6 | 30.7% | 5.6% | 3.56 | 2.87 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 34.2 | 53.4 | 175.1 | 15 | 9 | 28.0% | 6.2% | 3.44 | 3.19 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 55.5 | 81.0 |
| 9 | Michael King | 118.0 | 8 | 6 | 27.5% | 8.8% | 3.28 | 3.56 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 37.5 | 49.8 | 193.0 | 13 | 9 | 28.4% | 8.8% | 3.36 | 3.59 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 60.3 | 79.8 |
| 10 | Shota Imanaga | 104.0 | 8 | 2 | 25.5% | 4.0% | 2.86 | 3.23 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 37.8 | 52.4 | 166.0 | 12 | 4 | 25.6% | 4.7% | 3.14 | 3.26 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 54.4 | 77.3 |
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