Cy Young Award Projections
Projection System
About the Cy Young Award Projections:
These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)
- Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
- FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W
Data Export [Members Only]
American League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 110.0 | 10 | 3 | 30.5% | 4.6% | 2.37 | 2.54 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 49.2 | 73.2 | 186.0 | 15 | 7 | 29.7% | 5.1% | 2.66 | 2.68 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 75.0 | 112.7 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 112.1 | 9 | 3 | 23.6% | 5.6% | 2.33 | 3.35 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 46.6 | 60.9 | 200.1 | 14 | 7 | 24.4% | 6.2% | 2.88 | 3.36 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 69.8 | 95.2 |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | 105.0 | 6 | 6 | 34.8% | 5.5% | 3.08 | 2.42 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 37.1 | 61.4 | 168.0 | 11 | 9 | 33.6% | 6.5% | 3.05 | 2.69 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 60.7 | 94.5 |
| 4 | Seth Lugo | 122.0 | 11 | 3 | 22.5% | 5.9% | 2.21 | 3.29 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 53.0 | 69.4 | 196.0 | 15 | 7 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.89 | 3.54 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 67.5 | 88.3 |
| 5 | Tanner Houck | 111.0 | 7 | 6 | 23.3% | 5.1% | 2.68 | 2.68 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 40.1 | 62.5 | 182.0 | 12 | 10 | 23.1% | 6.0% | 3.16 | 3.06 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 56.5 | 85.7 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 111.1 | 7 | 6 | 24.3% | 2.5% | 3.40 | 2.87 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 31.5 | 51.6 | 193.1 | 13 | 10 | 23.8% | 2.9% | 3.40 | 3.10 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 55.2 | 85.2 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | 109.1 | 5 | 6 | 29.7% | 8.2% | 3.30 | 2.74 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 54.4 | 181.1 | 10 | 10 | 28.2% | 8.5% | 3.43 | 3.02 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 52.9 | 82.7 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 117.1 | 5 | 5 | 24.0% | 5.3% | 2.92 | 3.43 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 36.4 | 50.3 | 201.1 | 10 | 9 | 23.7% | 5.5% | 3.18 | 3.49 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 58.5 | 81.1 |
| 9 | Joe Ryan | 109.0 | 6 | 5 | 27.2% | 3.7% | 3.30 | 3.46 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 32.3 | 45.0 | 187.0 | 11 | 9 | 27.1% | 4.5% | 3.51 | 3.54 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 51.9 | 72.0 |
| 10 | Luis Castillo | 111.0 | 7 | 9 | 24.3% | 7.0% | 3.73 | 3.84 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 27.6 | 35.8 | 194.0 | 13 | 13 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 3.66 | 3.75 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 50.7 | 66.8 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Tarik Skubal | 110.0 | 10 | 3 | 30.5% | 4.6% | 2.37 | 2.54 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 49.2 | 73.2 | 186.0 | 15 | 7 | 29.7% | 5.1% | 2.66 | 2.68 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 75.0 | 112.7 |
| 2 | Corbin Burnes | 112.1 | 9 | 3 | 23.6% | 5.6% | 2.33 | 3.35 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 46.6 | 60.9 | 200.1 | 14 | 7 | 24.4% | 6.2% | 2.88 | 3.36 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 69.8 | 95.2 |
| 3 | Garrett Crochet | 105.0 | 6 | 6 | 34.8% | 5.5% | 3.08 | 2.42 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 37.1 | 61.4 | 168.0 | 11 | 9 | 33.6% | 6.5% | 3.05 | 2.69 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 60.7 | 94.5 |
| 4 | Seth Lugo | 122.0 | 11 | 3 | 22.5% | 5.9% | 2.21 | 3.29 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 53.0 | 69.4 | 196.0 | 15 | 7 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.89 | 3.54 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 67.5 | 88.3 |
| 5 | Tanner Houck | 111.0 | 7 | 6 | 23.3% | 5.1% | 2.68 | 2.68 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 40.1 | 62.5 | 182.0 | 12 | 10 | 23.1% | 6.0% | 3.16 | 3.06 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 56.5 | 85.7 |
| 6 | George Kirby | 111.1 | 7 | 6 | 24.3% | 2.5% | 3.40 | 2.87 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 31.5 | 51.6 | 193.1 | 13 | 10 | 23.8% | 2.9% | 3.40 | 3.10 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 55.2 | 85.2 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | 109.1 | 5 | 6 | 29.7% | 8.2% | 3.30 | 2.74 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 54.4 | 181.1 | 10 | 10 | 28.2% | 8.5% | 3.43 | 3.02 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 52.9 | 82.7 |
| 8 | Logan Gilbert | 117.1 | 5 | 5 | 24.0% | 5.3% | 2.92 | 3.43 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 36.4 | 50.3 | 201.1 | 10 | 9 | 23.7% | 5.5% | 3.18 | 3.49 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 58.5 | 81.1 |
| 9 | Joe Ryan | 109.0 | 6 | 5 | 27.2% | 3.7% | 3.30 | 3.46 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 32.3 | 45.0 | 187.0 | 11 | 9 | 27.1% | 4.5% | 3.51 | 3.54 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 51.9 | 72.0 |
| 10 | Luis Castillo | 111.0 | 7 | 9 | 24.3% | 7.0% | 3.73 | 3.84 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 27.6 | 35.8 | 194.0 | 13 | 13 | 24.6% | 7.0% | 3.66 | 3.75 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 50.7 | 66.8 |
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National League
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 99.1 | 11 | 3 | 32.7% | 4.9% | 2.72 | 2.25 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43.3 | 68.1 | 173.1 | 17 | 6 | 31.9% | 5.5% | 2.91 | 2.57 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 69.6 | 106.8 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 119.0 | 7 | 6 | 21.2% | 5.6% | 3.10 | 2.71 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 35.8 | 59.5 | 208.0 | 13 | 10 | 21.2% | 5.4% | 3.20 | 2.91 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 61.1 | 97.9 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 109.0 | 8 | 5 | 33.6% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 2.77 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 34.8 | 55.7 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 32.8% | 7.0% | 3.34 | 2.91 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 61.3 | 93.6 |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | 111.1 | 9 | 4 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 2.75 | 3.27 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 42.5 | 57.6 | 198.1 | 15 | 8 | 26.0% | 7.1% | 3.09 | 3.33 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 67.0 | 92.7 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 108.0 | 10 | 3 | 24.7% | 5.3% | 2.58 | 3.06 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 43.6 | 60.8 | 186.0 | 15 | 7 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 3.05 | 3.35 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 62.6 | 86.4 |
| 6 | Sonny Gray | 92.1 | 9 | 5 | 31.1% | 6.5% | 3.32 | 2.65 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 32.6 | 51.6 | 170.1 | 14 | 9 | 28.0% | 6.9% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 55.5 | 83.0 |
| 7 | Reynaldo López | 89.1 | 7 | 2 | 25.8% | 9.4% | 1.72 | 3.10 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 43.9 | 57.8 | 156.1 | 12 | 5 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 2.59 | 3.39 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 61.6 | 80.8 |
| 8 | Max Fried | 102.0 | 7 | 4 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 3.18 | 3.49 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 30.8 | 42.2 | 183.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.5% | 7.1% | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 53.8 | 75.1 |
| 9 | Cristopher Sánchez | 97.0 | 6 | 4 | 20.6% | 6.8% | 2.97 | 2.58 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 30.7 | 51.5 | 170.0 | 10 | 7 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 3.28 | 3.06 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 47.6 | 75.0 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | 113.1 | 10 | 4 | 23.8% | 5.6% | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 33.3 | 42.1 | 201.1 | 15 | 9 | 24.2% | 5.4% | 3.67 | 3.68 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 53.2 | 71.6 |
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Stats | Projected Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| # | Name | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP | IP | W | L | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9- WAR | CYP | FIP CYP |
| 1 | Chris Sale | 99.1 | 11 | 3 | 32.7% | 4.9% | 2.72 | 2.25 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43.3 | 68.1 | 173.1 | 17 | 6 | 31.9% | 5.5% | 2.91 | 2.57 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 69.6 | 106.8 |
| 2 | Logan Webb | 119.0 | 7 | 6 | 21.2% | 5.6% | 3.10 | 2.71 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 35.8 | 59.5 | 208.0 | 13 | 10 | 21.2% | 5.4% | 3.20 | 2.91 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 61.1 | 97.9 |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 109.0 | 8 | 5 | 33.6% | 6.8% | 3.47 | 2.77 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 34.8 | 55.7 | 183.0 | 14 | 8 | 32.8% | 7.0% | 3.34 | 2.91 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 61.3 | 93.6 |
| 4 | Zack Wheeler | 111.1 | 9 | 4 | 26.7% | 7.4% | 2.75 | 3.27 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 42.5 | 57.6 | 198.1 | 15 | 8 | 26.0% | 7.1% | 3.09 | 3.33 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 67.0 | 92.7 |
| 5 | Ranger Suárez | 108.0 | 10 | 3 | 24.7% | 5.3% | 2.58 | 3.06 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 43.6 | 60.8 | 186.0 | 15 | 7 | 23.2% | 6.2% | 3.05 | 3.35 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 62.6 | 86.4 |
| 6 | Sonny Gray | 92.1 | 9 | 5 | 31.1% | 6.5% | 3.32 | 2.65 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 32.6 | 51.6 | 170.1 | 14 | 9 | 28.0% | 6.9% | 3.33 | 3.04 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 55.5 | 83.0 |
| 7 | Reynaldo López | 89.1 | 7 | 2 | 25.8% | 9.4% | 1.72 | 3.10 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 43.9 | 57.8 | 156.1 | 12 | 5 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 2.59 | 3.39 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 61.6 | 80.8 |
| 8 | Max Fried | 102.0 | 7 | 4 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 3.18 | 3.49 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 30.8 | 42.2 | 183.0 | 13 | 8 | 21.5% | 7.1% | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 53.8 | 75.1 |
| 9 | Cristopher Sánchez | 97.0 | 6 | 4 | 20.6% | 6.8% | 2.97 | 2.58 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 30.7 | 51.5 | 170.0 | 10 | 7 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 3.28 | 3.06 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 47.6 | 75.0 |
| 10 | Aaron Nola | 113.1 | 10 | 4 | 23.8% | 5.6% | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 33.3 | 42.1 | 201.1 | 15 | 9 | 24.2% | 5.4% | 3.67 | 3.68 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 53.2 | 71.6 |
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