Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.50	3.7	4.2	55.1	82.4	188.0	15	7	30.2%	5.0%	2.54	2.57	5.7	6.0	78.5	118.8
2	Garrett Crochet	111.0	6	7	35.4%	5.6%	3.08	2.29	4.1	3.2	39.2	66.5	168.0	9	12	34.2%	6.4%	3.11	2.52	5.7	4.6	58.1	95.1
3	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.73	3.6	2.9	36.8	61.0	189.1	11	11	24.6%	3.0%	3.23	2.87	5.3	4.4	56.2	90.5
4	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.4	198.1	14	9	23.1%	6.3%	2.91	3.52	4.0	5.5	67.6	89.3
5	Logan Gilbert	139.0	6	6	25.0%	4.9%	2.72	3.27	2.8	3.7	46.7	65.7	206.0	10	10	24.9%	5.0%	3.06	3.38	4.2	4.9	62.9	88.6
6	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.21	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.7	204.0	16	9	21.8%	5.8%	3.04	3.55	4.1	5.9	67.1	88.5
7	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.74	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.6	192.1	11	10	28.0%	8.1%	3.42	3.04	5.0	4.6	56.3	87.5
8	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.82	3.4	3.2	43.9	66.9	191.0	12	10	22.0%	6.3%	3.20	3.16	4.5	4.1	57.0	85.4
9	Jack Flaherty	100.1	7	5	32.4%	4.3%	3.14	3.15	2.3	2.5	34.8	49.9	170.1	11	9	30.5%	5.7%	3.44	3.32	3.6	3.7	51.9	74.2
10	Joe Ryan	120.1	6	6	26.9%	3.9%	3.67	3.41	2.8	2.0	30.1	44.6	192.1	10	11	26.8%	4.4%	3.75	3.52	4.3	3.1	46.9	67.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	123.0	11	3	30.0%	4.5%	2.34	2.50	3.7	4.2	55.1	82.4	188.0	15	7	30.2%	5.0%	2.54	2.57	5.7	6.0	78.5	118.8
2	Garrett Crochet	111.0	6	7	35.4%	5.6%	3.08	2.29	4.1	3.2	39.2	66.5	168.0	9	12	34.2%	6.4%	3.11	2.52	5.7	4.6	58.1	95.1
3	George Kirby	123.1	7	7	24.7%	2.6%	3.21	2.73	3.6	2.9	36.8	61.0	189.1	11	11	24.6%	3.0%	3.23	2.87	5.3	4.4	56.2	90.5
4	Corbin Burnes	124.1	10	4	23.4%	5.8%	2.39	3.44	2.6	4.2	50.7	65.4	198.1	14	9	23.1%	6.3%	2.91	3.52	4.0	5.5	67.6	89.3
5	Logan Gilbert	139.0	6	6	25.0%	4.9%	2.72	3.27	2.8	3.7	46.7	65.7	206.0	10	10	24.9%	5.0%	3.06	3.38	4.2	4.9	62.9	88.6
6	Seth Lugo	136.0	12	4	22.5%	5.5%	2.38	3.21	3.2	5.3	56.2	75.7	204.0	16	9	21.8%	5.8%	3.04	3.55	4.1	5.9	67.1	88.5
7	Cole Ragans	122.1	7	6	29.1%	8.0%	3.24	2.74	3.5	3.4	38.7	62.6	192.1	11	10	28.0%	8.1%	3.42	3.04	5.0	4.6	56.3	87.5
8	Tanner Houck	123.0	8	6	22.5%	5.7%	2.71	2.82	3.4	3.2	43.9	66.9	191.0	12	10	22.0%	6.3%	3.20	3.16	4.5	4.1	57.0	85.4
9	Jack Flaherty	100.1	7	5	32.4%	4.3%	3.14	3.15	2.3	2.5	34.8	49.9	170.1	11	9	30.5%	5.7%	3.44	3.32	3.6	3.7	51.9	74.2
10	Joe Ryan	120.1	6	6	26.9%	3.9%	3.67	3.41	2.8	2.0	30.1	44.6	192.1	10	11	26.8%	4.4%	3.75	3.52	4.3	3.1	46.9	67.8

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.21	3.7	3.9	49.0	77.0	179.0	19	6	32.2%	6.0%	2.97	2.53	5.6	5.4	72.5	111.7
2	Zack Wheeler	123.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.56	3.21	3.2	4.2	49.9	67.5	194.1	15	7	26.1%	7.0%	2.92	3.30	4.9	5.6	69.6	95.4
3	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.09	2.9	2.0	34.9	54.0	195.0	14	11	32.2%	8.0%	3.69	3.18	4.6	3.4	56.9	85.5
4	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.74	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.1	170.0	13	7	33.0%	6.9%	3.44	2.90	4.7	3.8	55.1	85.4
5	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.91	2.8	2.3	31.2	54.1	201.0	12	12	20.5%	5.4%	3.54	2.96	4.5	3.8	50.5	84.8
6	Paul Skenes	74.1	6	1	34.2%	4.6%	1.94	2.57	2.2	3.3	36.8	52.7	137.1	10	5	31.8%	5.6%	2.56	2.76	3.9	4.9	56.7	83.2
7	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.98	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.3	186.0	15	9	22.4%	6.3%	3.29	3.30	4.2	4.3	57.1	81.9
8	Michael King	118.0	8	6	27.5%	8.8%	3.28	3.56	2.3	2.3	37.5	49.8	185.0	13	10	27.1%	8.2%	3.45	3.55	3.6	3.4	55.3	74.7
9	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.87	2.7	1.5	34.2	53.4	168.1	14	10	28.3%	6.3%	3.64	3.16	4.0	2.6	49.5	74.6
10	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.63	3.3	2.8	34.4	57.0	166.0	11	8	19.7%	6.4%	3.31	3.05	4.2	3.5	46.5	73.3

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.21	3.7	3.9	49.0	77.0	179.0	19	6	32.2%	6.0%	2.97	2.53	5.6	5.4	72.5	111.7
2	Zack Wheeler	123.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.56	3.21	3.2	4.2	49.9	67.5	194.1	15	7	26.1%	7.0%	2.92	3.30	4.9	5.6	69.6	95.4
3	Dylan Cease	122.0	9	8	32.5%	7.6%	3.76	3.09	2.9	2.0	34.9	54.0	195.0	14	11	32.2%	8.0%	3.69	3.18	4.6	3.4	56.9	85.5
4	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.74	3.1	2.5	34.8	56.1	170.0	13	7	33.0%	6.9%	3.44	2.90	4.7	3.8	55.1	85.4
5	Logan Webb	130.0	7	8	20.7%	6.0%	3.60	2.91	2.8	2.3	31.2	54.1	201.0	12	12	20.5%	5.4%	3.54	2.96	4.5	3.8	50.5	84.8
6	Paul Skenes	74.1	6	1	34.2%	4.6%	1.94	2.57	2.2	3.3	36.8	52.7	137.1	10	5	31.8%	5.6%	2.56	2.76	3.9	4.9	56.7	83.2
7	Ranger Suárez	119.0	10	5	24.1%	5.6%	2.87	2.98	3.2	3.4	43.1	63.3	186.0	15	9	22.4%	6.3%	3.29	3.30	4.2	4.3	57.1	81.9
8	Michael King	118.0	8	6	27.5%	8.8%	3.28	3.56	2.3	2.3	37.5	49.8	185.0	13	10	27.1%	8.2%	3.45	3.55	3.6	3.4	55.3	74.7
9	Sonny Gray	106.1	10	6	30.7%	5.6%	3.56	2.87	2.7	1.5	34.2	53.4	168.1	14	10	28.3%	6.3%	3.64	3.16	4.0	2.6	49.5	74.6
10	Cristopher Sánchez	109.0	7	5	20.0%	6.3%	2.97	2.63	3.3	2.8	34.4	57.0	166.0	11	8	19.7%	6.4%	3.31	3.05	4.2	3.5	46.5	73.3

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG