Abstract
IMF Country Report No. 23/195
Copyright Page
IMF Country Report No. 23/195
SOUTH AFRICA
SELECTED ISSUES
June 2023
This paper on South Africa was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 5, 2023.
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© 2023 International Monetary Fund
Title page
SOUTH AFRICA
SELECTED ISSUES
May 5, 2023
Approved By
Papa N’Diaye
Prepared By Ken Miyajima, Alejandro Simone, and Haonan Qu (AFR), Vybhavi Balasundharam, Suphachol Suphachalasai, and Sébastien Walker (FAD), Sneha Thube (RES).
Contents
THE LINK BETWEEN SOCIAL GRANTS AND EMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA
A. Introduction
B. The Literature
C. Data and Methodology
D. Estimation
E. Results From Dynamic Random-Effects Probit
F. Results From Propensity Score Matching
G. Discussion
FIGURES
1. Social Spending and Unemployment
2. Employment Probability by Age: Overall and Grant Recipients
3a. Impact of Grants on Employment Probability (by type, size, and education)
3b. Impact of Grants on Employment Probability (direct and indirect)
4. Impact of Grants on Indirect Recipient’s Employment Probability
TABLES
1. Average Per-capita Monthly Household Income and Expenditure
2. Weekly Transport Cost for Job Search, Interquartile Range
ANNEX
I. Data Summary
References
PUBLIC PROCUREMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA: ISSUES AND REFORM OPTIONS
A. Introduction
B. The South African Procurement System: Key Characteristics, Issues, and Reform Progress
C. International Experience with Procurement Reforms
D. An Assessment of the Draft New Procurement Bill
E. Procurement Reform Priorities Going Forward
References
SOUTH AFRICA CARBON PRICING AND CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICY
A. Existing Carbon Pricing in South Africa
B. Challenges in Meeting South Africa’s NDC
C. Complementary Climate Mitigation Measures to Carbon Tax
D. Distributional Consequences from Carbon Pricing
E. Use of Carbon Tax Revenues
F. Concluding Remarks
FIGURES
1. Historical GHG Emissions
2. Emission Tax-Free Thresholds for Selected Industries
3. Carbon Tax Rate
4. Environment-Related Taxes
5. Carbon Price, 2021
6. Transfers, Carbon Tax, and Electricity Levy, FY2020/21
7. Electricity Generation Capacity Projection
8. GHG Emissions under Alternative Carbon Tax Scenarios
9. Combined Effects of Current Policies and Sectoral Targets
10. Price Impacts Under Alternative Carbon Tax Scenarios
11. Sectoral Impacts under NDC scenarios
12. Average Effect on Consumption Deciles from Increasing CO2 price to $30 per ton, 2030
13. Carbon Tax Revenue Recycling
APPENDIX
I. Brief Description of the IMF-ENV CGE Model
References
