2024 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

Going through the Guardians’ projections this winter reminds me quite a bit of going through the Diamondbacks’ projections last year, when I wrote:

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: ZiPS really, really likes the Diamondbacks. As I mentioned in the early standings run I did a few weeks ago, I actually went back and re-checked everything that was Arizona-specific to make sure that the optimism was correct, and while I can’t say for sure that the computer’s love for this roster is warranted, I can at least say that it was properly generated!

Obviously, Cleveland and Arizona aren’t in identical situations — the Guardians don’t have a Corbin Carroll equivalent about to hit the majors — but there’s a surprising lot to like about this team if you’re a believer in the ZiPS projections.

I guess we can start with the weakest part of the offense: the outfield. While center and right field project as extremely ordinary, ZiPS has a long history of cordially disliking Cleveland’s outfield, and this is far from some of the trash fires we’ve seen in past projections. Bottom line, these are the Guardians’ best outfield ZiPS projections since 2015, back in Michael Brantley’s prime. Last year, Steven Kwan projecting for a 103 OPS+ caused a good bit of consternation, but he finished 2023 at 100, serving as a reminder that BABIP Regression is second only to the eternal meat grinder known as time in its deadliness. The scouts, however, may have defeated ZiPS in terms of George Valera, and after a .211/.343/.375 line, the computer has jumped off the bandwagon (even accounting for the fact that at least some of that was probably due to nagging hamstring and wrist injuries).

ZiPS remains a big fan of Andrés Giménez, and based on his peripherals, sees his 2022 as being a lot closer to who he is than his weaker 2023 season. Also helping his projection is the fact that he’s still young enough to have some unknown upside remaining.

Cleveland doesn’t project as having serious holes anywhere else in the lineup, either. ZiPS isn’t quite as interested in Kyle Manzardo as it was a year ago, but he still projects as a league-average first baseman, and Josh Naylor still projects as a solid player even if 2023 may have been a career year. José Ramírez remains José Ramírez, and Austin Hedges‘ projection isn’t bad enough to counteract all the good in Bo Naylor’s forecast.

Pitchers

Teams don’t typically give me their projections, but I’d be especially interested in how ZiPS compares to the Guardians’ internal projections here — I wonder how much those numbers are what made them comfortable with trading Aaron Civale while still technically in a playoff race and at least listening to offers for Shane Bieber. The Guardians have some really solid defensive players, which is reflected in their pitching projections; from the ERA-FIP differences, ZiPS thinks Cleveland will be a +25 run defensive team in 2024. Even ignoring Daniel Espino’s projection given the nature of his shoulder injury and assuming a Bieber trade (which very well might not happen), Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams project as a solid rotation by themselves. Williams is the big name, but ZiPS likes Cleveland’s second-tier pitching prospects to be able to get some innings in and avoid train-wreck status.

Running down the top nine names on our depth charts for Cleveland’s ‘pen, the worst projected ERA of the bunch is Cody Morris‘ at 4.19 and even that’s misleading, as it still includes some starts that project for a higher ERA. The Guardians are the 16th team to receive a ZiPS projection this offseason; of those 16, they have the third-best projected bullpen, behind the Braves and Rays.

All in all, ZiPS projects a very strong bounce back from the team’s 76 wins in 2023, and unless the computer’s missing on its sleeper pick this year, the Twins shouldn’t rest too easy on their nine-game lead. Some people might have the Royals as a sleeper pick given their activity in free agency, but I think Cleveland’s got a case for being built significantly better from tip to tail.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.