2024 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves
For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Atlanta Braves.
Batters
Gosh, what do you even say about this lineup? The top six starters — Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Ozzie Albies — basically get you two-thirds of the way to a playoff spot all by themselves. ZiPS puts a 50/50 season in reach for Acuña, and his projected WAR is more than a win better than anyone else in baseball. Eight of his top 10 comps ought to be Hall of Famers (Betts is still playing), and ZiPS now has him finishing with a mean career projection in excess of 650 homers, with nearly 600 stolen bases and more than 3,000 hits. And he’s locked up for the next five years, so there’s no chance of him taking a mystery plane ride to a sushi restaurant in Toronto.
You could lop Acuña off the top and this would still look like one of the top teams in baseball. The other five guys mentioned so far are all in their primes, and only Olson has hit age 30. ZiPS isn’t completely sold on Orlando Arcia, though it does have greater confidence in him being a league-average player than it did before last season; the computer is still casting a side eye at Marcell Ozuna, whose production has been rather up-and-down over the years. The only real weak spot in the starting lineup is Jarred Kelenic’s tepid projection; even with his performance slumping after April, I expected a rosier outlook, though this isn’t out of whack with what Steamer sees for the former Mariner.
Vaughn Grissom is on the depth chart in a sub role, but I can’t help but think that he ought to be a prime trade candidate this winter. David Fletcher is a suitable backup who can fake being a starter for a while if need be, and ZiPS sees the team’s other minor league shortstop options as more than adequate candidates for being dragooned into utility duties. I can’t say exactly why Atlanta pulled the trigger, but ZiPS certainly sees the lure of Ignacio Alvarez and Luke Waddell over hanging on to Braden Shewmake and Nicky Lopez.
The farm system is pretty empty when it comes to hitters, but the Braves are only looking for emergency reinforcements.
Pitchers
Spencer Strider and Max Fried are a scary one-two out of the rotation, and ZiPS sees Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder as perfectly adequate complementary talent, even after the latter’s late-season swoon. Allan Winans looks like a reasonable no. 5 starter and Ian Anderson ought to be back sometime in 2024. ZiPS is less bullish about AJ Smith-Shawver, but that projection would still be just fine for a fifth or sixth starter. With the offense looking nearly otherworldly, it would definitely make sense to focus any trade talks or cash splashings on bringing in another pitcher or two. And not just for 2024; Fried and Morton are both free agents after this season and Morton is in his 40s now. It would be a lot of fun to see the Braves go after someone like Yoshinobu Yamamoto with all the savings they’ve gotten from the very team-friendly contracts Acuña and Albies signed.
Reynaldo López is the wild card here, and it’s still uncertain how the Braves will use him when push comes to shove. ZiPS projects him to have a 4.20 ERA if he’s used as a full-time starter compared to a 3.10 mark as a full-time reliever.
The bullpen isn’t flashy, but it’s deep and perhaps still underrated. ZiPS forecasts all of the Braves’ relievers with ERA+ numbers over 100 until you get pretty far down the depth chart (Daysbel Hernández). Even Aaron Bummer (who White Sox fans seem to hate more than any person or thing that has ever existed, at least if my social media after the trade is any indication) projects for a nice little bounce-back season and a sub .600 OPS against lefties. The relief corps will also get a reinforcement or two depending on who ends up getting starts this year.
The depth chart suggests a >100 win projection, which is exceedingly rare in ZiPS (or any projection system). That number will probably come down a bit, as I’m not quite as bullish on the Iron Man playing time as the depth charts are, and I suspect a few more closer-to-replacement names will get some plate appearances/innings in 2024. Still, this is a very dangerous team. Unfortunately for the Braves, being a very dangerous team only gives you about a 20% chance of winning the World Series, baseball being baseball.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | R | 26 | RF | 688 | 585 | 140 | 178 | 34 | 2 | 43 | 116 | 88 | 114 | 51 | 10 |
Austin Riley | R | 27 | 3B | 655 | 582 | 96 | 164 | 32 | 2 | 34 | 103 | 55 | 156 | 2 | 1 |
Sean Murphy | R | 29 | C | 484 | 418 | 64 | 106 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 72 | 49 | 111 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Olson | L | 30 | 1B | 661 | 565 | 95 | 147 | 31 | 1 | 37 | 116 | 86 | 146 | 1 | 1 |
Michael Harris II | L | 23 | CF | 578 | 538 | 81 | 150 | 33 | 3 | 20 | 79 | 30 | 119 | 21 | 4 |
Ozzie Albies | B | 27 | 2B | 636 | 579 | 93 | 158 | 33 | 4 | 26 | 97 | 45 | 106 | 12 | 4 |
Vaughn Grissom | R | 23 | SS | 560 | 503 | 73 | 134 | 27 | 3 | 10 | 68 | 42 | 95 | 11 | 3 |
Travis d’Arnaud | R | 35 | C | 311 | 284 | 35 | 71 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 43 | 21 | 73 | 0 | 1 |
Marcell Ozuna | R | 33 | LF | 506 | 454 | 62 | 115 | 22 | 0 | 25 | 78 | 48 | 117 | 1 | 1 |
Orlando Arcia | R | 29 | SS | 466 | 425 | 55 | 107 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 36 | 89 | 2 | 1 |
Ignacio Alvarez | R | 21 | SS | 491 | 434 | 53 | 105 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 51 | 45 | 103 | 8 | 3 |
David Fletcher | R | 30 | SS | 489 | 459 | 53 | 126 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 50 | 25 | 43 | 6 | 2 |
Luke Waddell | L | 25 | SS | 511 | 455 | 57 | 115 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 48 | 76 | 12 | 6 |
Drake Baldwin | L | 23 | C | 458 | 407 | 48 | 95 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 55 | 43 | 117 | 0 | 1 |
Forrest Wall | L | 28 | CF | 421 | 380 | 54 | 92 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 34 | 117 | 33 | 7 |
Alejo Lopez | B | 28 | 2B | 490 | 438 | 56 | 114 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 53 | 43 | 74 | 8 | 2 |
Mitchell Tolman | L | 30 | 3B | 377 | 334 | 42 | 75 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 30 | 99 | 3 | 2 |
Yolmer Sánchez | B | 32 | 3B | 424 | 365 | 41 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 49 | 116 | 3 | 2 |
Jarred Kelenic | L | 24 | LF | 492 | 439 | 59 | 105 | 26 | 2 | 15 | 70 | 48 | 139 | 13 | 5 |
Dalton Guthrie | R | 28 | CF | 376 | 341 | 40 | 83 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 94 | 6 | 3 |
Luis Liberato | L | 28 | CF | 342 | 303 | 41 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 31 | 98 | 5 | 3 |
Eli White | R | 30 | CF | 265 | 236 | 33 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 25 | 90 | 10 | 2 |
Joe Hudson | R | 33 | C | 244 | 213 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 26 | 86 | 1 | 1 |
Kevin Pillar | R | 35 | LF | 289 | 270 | 40 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 13 | 64 | 5 | 2 |
Daniel Robertson | R | 30 | 3B | 238 | 210 | 26 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
Cody Milligan | L | 25 | CF | 430 | 385 | 56 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 38 | 105 | 13 | 4 |
Chadwick Tromp | R | 29 | C | 274 | 252 | 29 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 1 |
Dominic Miroglio | R | 29 | C | 250 | 225 | 23 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 55 | 0 | 1 |
Joe Dunand | R | 28 | 1B | 379 | 342 | 35 | 72 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 28 | 125 | 2 | 1 |
Luke Williams | R | 27 | SS | 389 | 352 | 49 | 82 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 31 | 103 | 19 | 5 |
Ryan Casteel | R | 33 | C | 248 | 226 | 23 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 19 | 84 | 0 | 1 |
Eddie Rosario | L | 32 | LF | 465 | 432 | 51 | 106 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 67 | 28 | 93 | 5 | 3 |
Magneuris Sierra | L | 28 | RF | 319 | 295 | 37 | 67 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 79 | 14 | 3 |
Cade Bunnell | L | 27 | 3B | 457 | 404 | 45 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 48 | 208 | 3 | 1 |
Jesse Franklin V | L | 25 | LF | 390 | 356 | 43 | 74 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 53 | 23 | 136 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Velazquez | R | 29 | SS | 333 | 298 | 38 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 27 | 113 | 20 | 3 |
Keshawn Ogans | R | 22 | 3B | 444 | 397 | 38 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 29 | 105 | 5 | 4 |
Justin Dean | R | 27 | CF | 418 | 368 | 51 | 73 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 39 | 156 | 18 | 5 |
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. | R | 23 | CF | 531 | 479 | 61 | 99 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 41 | 163 | 15 | 3 |
Ehire Adrianza | B | 34 | SS | 148 | 131 | 17 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 31 | 1 | 1 |
Chad Pinder | R | 32 | 3B | 287 | 268 | 31 | 62 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 17 | 85 | 1 | 1 |
Jesús Aguilar | R | 34 | DH | 397 | 358 | 34 | 86 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 51 | 32 | 98 | 0 | 1 |
David McCabe | B | 24 | 3B | 506 | 453 | 48 | 104 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 139 | 4 | 2 |
Sebastián Rivero | R | 25 | C | 260 | 241 | 22 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
Charlie Culberson | R | 35 | 1B | 165 | 153 | 14 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 53 | 3 | 1 |
Tyler Tolve | L | 23 | C | 251 | 231 | 29 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 16 | 85 | 2 | 1 |
Drew Campbell | L | 26 | RF | 331 | 307 | 33 | 68 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 14 | 95 | 6 | 5 |
Andrew Moritz | L | 27 | LF | 272 | 251 | 29 | 60 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 18 | 66 | 4 | 2 |
Landon Stephens | R | 26 | RF | 429 | 382 | 41 | 72 | 15 | 1 | 17 | 55 | 37 | 183 | 1 | 2 |
Arden Pabst | R | 29 | C | 169 | 157 | 12 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 1 |
Jacob Pearson | L | 26 | LF | 286 | 260 | 25 | 50 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 88 | 6 | 3 |
Joshua Fuentes | R | 31 | 1B | 351 | 330 | 35 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 15 | 97 | 2 | 1 |
Brandon Parker | R | 25 | LF | 266 | 236 | 28 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 22 | 100 | 4 | 2 |
Beau Philip | R | 25 | 3B | 358 | 323 | 33 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 139 | 4 | 2 |
Javier Valdes | R | 25 | C | 297 | 258 | 30 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 27 | 73 | 1 | 1 |
Hendrik Clementina | R | 27 | C | 250 | 234 | 19 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 11 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
Geraldo Quintero | B | 22 | 2B | 507 | 460 | 54 | 106 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 39 | 115 | 14 | 8 |
Cal Conley | L | 24 | SS | 553 | 508 | 67 | 112 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 32 | 141 | 16 | 7 |
Hudson Potts | R | 25 | 1B | 317 | 294 | 26 | 52 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 19 | 133 | 0 | 1 |
Bryson Worrell | B | 25 | RF | 278 | 250 | 24 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 23 | 125 | 7 | 1 |
Bryson Horne | L | 25 | 1B | 400 | 376 | 29 | 77 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 140 | 2 | 1 |
Player | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | Def | WAR | wOBA | RC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 688 | .304 | .403 | .590 | 164 | .285 | .315 | 2 | 7.3 | .417 | 153 |
Austin Riley | 655 | .282 | .351 | .519 | 132 | .237 | .332 | -1 | 4.4 | .368 | 107 |
Sean Murphy | 484 | .254 | .349 | .476 | 121 | .222 | .295 | 7 | 4.0 | .355 | 70 |
Matt Olson | 661 | .260 | .360 | .515 | 134 | .255 | .288 | 2 | 3.6 | .370 | 105 |
Michael Harris II | 578 | .279 | .322 | .463 | 110 | .184 | .326 | 8 | 3.6 | .336 | 86 |
Ozzie Albies | 636 | .273 | .327 | .478 | 115 | .206 | .295 | -1 | 3.2 | .342 | 95 |
Vaughn Grissom | 560 | .266 | .336 | .392 | 97 | .125 | .312 | -4 | 1.8 | .319 | 70 |
Travis d’Arnaud | 311 | .250 | .312 | .430 | 98 | .180 | .300 | 3 | 1.6 | .321 | 38 |
Marcell Ozuna | 506 | .253 | .326 | .467 | 112 | .214 | .288 | -1 | 1.5 | .340 | 70 |
Orlando Arcia | 466 | .252 | .311 | .400 | 91 | .148 | .289 | 1 | 1.5 | .310 | 54 |
Ignacio Alvarez | 491 | .242 | .326 | .332 | 79 | .090 | .305 | 2 | 1.2 | .296 | 50 |
David Fletcher | 489 | .275 | .314 | .346 | 79 | .072 | .298 | 3 | 1.1 | .291 | 52 |
Luke Waddell | 511 | .253 | .325 | .343 | 82 | .090 | .290 | -1 | 1.0 | .298 | 56 |
Drake Baldwin | 458 | .233 | .317 | .373 | 86 | .140 | .301 | -3 | 1.0 | .305 | 49 |
Forrest Wall | 421 | .242 | .310 | .345 | 77 | .103 | .337 | 3 | 0.9 | .290 | 50 |
Alejo Lopez | 490 | .260 | .333 | .340 | 83 | .080 | .306 | 0 | 0.9 | .301 | 52 |
Mitchell Tolman | 377 | .225 | .302 | .344 | 75 | .120 | .301 | 6 | 0.7 | .286 | 36 |
Yolmer Sánchez | 424 | .214 | .313 | .310 | 70 | .096 | .296 | 6 | 0.6 | .283 | 37 |
Jarred Kelenic | 492 | .239 | .315 | .410 | 95 | .171 | .316 | 0 | 0.6 | .313 | 61 |
Dalton Guthrie | 376 | .243 | .307 | .349 | 78 | .106 | .322 | 2 | 0.5 | .291 | 39 |
Luis Liberato | 342 | .231 | .301 | .380 | 83 | .149 | .315 | 1 | 0.5 | .297 | 37 |
Eli White | 265 | .208 | .291 | .331 | 68 | .123 | .302 | 3 | 0.3 | .278 | 26 |
Joe Hudson | 244 | .192 | .287 | .310 | 62 | .117 | .289 | 3 | 0.3 | .269 | 20 |
Kevin Pillar | 289 | .244 | .287 | .415 | 87 | .170 | .286 | 2 | 0.3 | .302 | 34 |
Daniel Robertson | 238 | .214 | .303 | .314 | 68 | .100 | .279 | 3 | 0.2 | .279 | 20 |
Cody Milligan | 430 | .239 | .312 | .314 | 71 | .075 | .324 | 1 | 0.2 | .280 | 42 |
Chadwick Tromp | 274 | .222 | .281 | .365 | 73 | .143 | .277 | -1 | 0.2 | .282 | 26 |
Dominic Miroglio | 250 | .222 | .292 | .347 | 72 | .124 | .273 | -1 | 0.1 | .282 | 23 |
Joe Dunand | 379 | .211 | .282 | .351 | 70 | .140 | .300 | 9 | 0.1 | .279 | 35 |
Luke Williams | 389 | .233 | .298 | .344 | 74 | .111 | .310 | -5 | 0.0 | .283 | 42 |
Ryan Casteel | 248 | .212 | .278 | .394 | 79 | .181 | .288 | -4 | 0.0 | .290 | 25 |
Eddie Rosario | 465 | .245 | .291 | .419 | 89 | .174 | .276 | -2 | -0.1 | .304 | 55 |
Magneuris Sierra | 319 | .227 | .278 | .308 | 59 | .081 | .300 | 9 | -0.1 | .259 | 29 |
Cade Bunnell | 457 | .183 | .274 | .332 | 63 | .149 | .333 | 3 | -0.1 | .269 | 38 |
Jesse Franklin V | 390 | .208 | .269 | .396 | 77 | .188 | .288 | 2 | -0.1 | .287 | 41 |
Andrew Velazquez | 333 | .201 | .269 | .309 | 56 | .107 | .306 | 0 | -0.1 | .257 | 30 |
Keshawn Ogans | 444 | .234 | .303 | .338 | 74 | .103 | .302 | -3 | -0.2 | .285 | 43 |
Justin Dean | 418 | .198 | .288 | .291 | 58 | .092 | .325 | 2 | -0.2 | .263 | 37 |
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. | 531 | .207 | .278 | .294 | 56 | .088 | .304 | 6 | -0.3 | .257 | 43 |
Ehire Adrianza | 148 | .244 | .318 | .359 | 83 | .115 | .306 | -6 | -0.3 | .299 | 16 |
Chad Pinder | 287 | .231 | .279 | .373 | 75 | .142 | .309 | -4 | -0.4 | .283 | 28 |
Jesús Aguilar | 397 | .240 | .302 | .374 | 82 | .134 | .301 | 0 | -0.4 | .294 | 41 |
David McCabe | 506 | .230 | .302 | .358 | 78 | .128 | .305 | -10 | -0.6 | .291 | 51 |
Sebastián Rivero | 260 | .220 | .266 | .320 | 58 | .100 | .292 | -4 | -0.7 | .258 | 21 |
Charlie Culberson | 165 | .222 | .264 | .320 | 57 | .098 | .327 | -1 | -0.7 | .256 | 14 |
Tyler Tolve | 251 | .212 | .267 | .359 | 68 | .147 | .297 | -9 | -0.8 | .272 | 23 |
Drew Campbell | 331 | .221 | .263 | .339 | 62 | .117 | .298 | 4 | -0.8 | .261 | 31 |
Andrew Moritz | 272 | .239 | .294 | .291 | 60 | .052 | .321 | 0 | -0.8 | .263 | 23 |
Landon Stephens | 429 | .188 | .273 | .366 | 71 | .178 | .302 | 0 | -0.8 | .280 | 39 |
Arden Pabst | 169 | .166 | .219 | .274 | 33 | .108 | .262 | -1 | -0.8 | .219 | 10 |
Jacob Pearson | 286 | .192 | .256 | .285 | 47 | .092 | .278 | 5 | -0.9 | .242 | 21 |
Joshua Fuentes | 351 | .221 | .262 | .318 | 56 | .097 | .295 | 5 | -0.9 | .255 | 28 |
Brandon Parker | 266 | .191 | .274 | .305 | 57 | .114 | .305 | -1 | -1.0 | .261 | 21 |
Beau Philip | 358 | .180 | .254 | .272 | 43 | .093 | .292 | 2 | -1.1 | .238 | 24 |
Javier Valdes | 297 | .229 | .323 | .364 | 86 | .136 | .292 | -21 | -1.1 | .306 | 31 |
Hendrik Clementina | 250 | .201 | .244 | .321 | 51 | .120 | .296 | -9 | -1.3 | .247 | 19 |
Geraldo Quintero | 507 | .230 | .298 | .315 | 67 | .085 | .299 | -11 | -1.4 | .275 | 49 |
Cal Conley | 553 | .220 | .275 | .307 | 58 | .087 | .294 | -8 | -1.4 | .258 | 49 |
Hudson Potts | 317 | .177 | .230 | .316 | 46 | .139 | .283 | 3 | -1.5 | .239 | 22 |
Bryson Worrell | 278 | .164 | .245 | .268 | 39 | .104 | .306 | -2 | -1.6 | .232 | 18 |
Bryson Horne | 400 | .205 | .245 | .306 | 48 | .101 | .306 | -1 | -2.2 | .242 | 29 |
Player | Hit Comp 1 | Hit Comp 2 | Hit Comp 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | Frank Robinson | Willie Mays | Mookie Betts |
Austin Riley | Whitey Kurowski | Vern Stephens | Jim Ray Hart |
Sean Murphy | Geovany Soto | Sherm Lollar | Dave Nilsson |
Matt Olson | Mark Teixeira | David Ortiz | Carlos Delgado |
Michael Harris II | Bobby Tolan | Rich Coggins | Vada Pinson |
Ozzie Albies | Jorge Polanco | Dickie Thon | Robin Yount |
Vaughn Grissom | Tony Fernandez | Dave Cash | Derek Jeter |
Travis d’Arnaud | Bill Freehan | Ray Mueller | Tim Thompson |
Marcell Ozuna | Chuck Klein | Eddie Robinson | Ben Oglivie |
Orlando Arcia | Ray Boone | David Bell | Mike Rex |
Ignacio Alvarez | Rich Aurilia | John Busco | David Garcia |
David Fletcher | Luis Figueroa | José Iglesias | Chico Fernandez |
Luke Waddell | Jeff Huson | Sonny Jackson | Tim Jones |
Drake Baldwin | George Kottaras | Jerry Willard | Bill Freehan |
Forrest Wall | Michael Bourn | Micah Johnson | Thomas Milone |
Alejo Lopez | Marty Barrett | Donovan Walton | Walter Fiala |
Mitchell Tolman | Tug Hulett | Frank Quilici | Craig Stansberry |
Yolmer Sánchez | Paul Runge | Dick Schofield | Dave Owen |
Jarred Kelenic | Andy Van Slyke | Josh Lowe | Willie Crawford |
Dalton Guthrie | Stephen Douglas | Eddie Christian | James Tomlin |
Luis Liberato | Skye Bolt | Brian Goodwin | Joe Wallis |
Eli White | Reggie Thomas | Gale Wade | Bert Hamric |
Joe Hudson | Joe Lonnett | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Wes Westrum |
Kevin Pillar | Carl Reynolds | Cesar Cedeno | Mitch Webster |
Daniel Robertson | Rich Morales | Ricky Magdaleno | Mike Reynolds |
Cody Milligan | Kevin Reese | Mallex Smith | Reggie West |
Chadwick Tromp | Wyatt Toregas | Matt Lauderdale | Michael Perez |
Dominic Miroglio | Buddy Booker | J.C. Martin | Mark Strittmatter |
Joe Dunand | Mike Gonzales | Brock Peterson | Tyler Brilinski |
Luke Williams | Mike Brumley | Jimmy Sexton | Alfredo Amezaga |
Ryan Casteel | Sal Fasano | Geovany Soto | Art Kusnyer |
Eddie Rosario | Ken Landreaux | Carl Reynolds | Ken Walters |
Magneuris Sierra | Chris Cosbey | Gary Villacres | David Hulse |
Cade Bunnell | Andy Tracy | Shanie Dugas | Tom Quinlan 퀸란 |
Jesse Franklin V | Edwin Chasteen | Jerry Gil | Dick Sharon |
Andrew Velazquez | Jimmy Sexton | Chris Owings | Connor Kopach |
Keshawn Ogans | Gersan Jarquin | William Wagner | Aaron Ledesma |
Justin Dean | Jeff Duncan | Dwaine Bacon | Bernie Walker |
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. | Eric Johnson | Terrell Lowery | Tony Russell |
Ehire Adrianza | Ramon Santiago | Jeff Reboulet | Tom Foley |
Chad Pinder | Luis Aguayo | Scott Seabol 스캇 | Tyler Houston |
Jesús Aguilar | John Rodriguez | Wil Cordero | Willie Montanez |
David McCabe | Pedro Castellano | Mike Edwards | George Weicker |
Sebastián Rivero | Rick Wrona | Sean Rooney | Henry Gatewood |
Charlie Culberson | Chris Jones | Charlie Fox | Joe Rossi |
Tyler Tolve | Nephtale Mora | Frank Lucy | Ralph DiMeglio |
Drew Campbell | Darryl Monroe | Pete Pirman | Joe Holden |
Andrew Moritz | Andrew Simunic | Danny Oh | Sean Danielson |
Landon Stephens | Rich Barry | Mike Hocutt | Matt Gundelfinger |
Arden Pabst | Gary Tremblay | Jeff Hearron | Jared Price |
Jacob Pearson | Jeff DeBlieux | Marcus Knight | Ken Cameron |
Joshua Fuentes | Jose Arcia | Myles Schroder | Jim Lynn |
Brandon Parker | Bret Berglund | Brandon Copeland | Steve Haake |
Beau Philip | Stu Cole | Mike Hampton | Mickey Micelotta |
Javier Valdes | Dave Valle | Bob Bonalewicz | Wynston Sawyer |
Hendrik Clementina | Ryan Sienko | Joseph Muich | Mike Wright |
Geraldo Quintero | Jesmuel Valentín | Paul Plinski | Tyler Pastornicky |
Cal Conley | Juan Perez | Wilson Batista | Cleatus Davidson |
Hudson Potts | John Westmoreland | Mike Burns | Dave Pregon |
Bryson Worrell | Jayson Bass | Bo Williams | Anthony Vega |
Bryson Horne | Steve Cordner | Raul Padron | Manuel Rodriguez |
Player | 80th BA | 80th OBP | 80th SLG | 80th OPS+ | 80th WAR | 20th BA | 20th OBP | 20th SLG | 20th OPS+ | 20th WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | .331 | .431 | .660 | 187 | 9.3 | .279 | .376 | .536 | 143 | 5.4 |
Austin Riley | .306 | .375 | .584 | 152 | 6.1 | .255 | .326 | .468 | 113 | 3.0 |
Sean Murphy | .278 | .374 | .540 | 143 | 5.3 | .226 | .324 | .425 | 102 | 2.9 |
Matt Olson | .281 | .385 | .578 | 155 | 5.4 | .234 | .334 | .469 | 117 | 2.3 |
Michael Harris II | .307 | .350 | .516 | 130 | 5.0 | .247 | .295 | .405 | 88 | 1.8 |
Ozzie Albies | .297 | .354 | .534 | 135 | 4.8 | .250 | .302 | .428 | 97 | 1.7 |
Vaughn Grissom | .293 | .361 | .443 | 116 | 3.2 | .242 | .310 | .352 | 80 | 0.7 |
Travis d’Arnaud | .281 | .337 | .489 | 119 | 2.4 | .221 | .284 | .377 | 78 | 0.8 |
Marcell Ozuna | .281 | .353 | .522 | 133 | 2.8 | .227 | .299 | .410 | 93 | 0.3 |
Orlando Arcia | .281 | .339 | .449 | 111 | 2.6 | .228 | .284 | .352 | 73 | 0.5 |
Ignacio Alvarez | .266 | .353 | .372 | 96 | 2.2 | .212 | .298 | .295 | 61 | 0.0 |
David Fletcher | .304 | .344 | .387 | 96 | 2.1 | .243 | .286 | .307 | 61 | -0.1 |
Luke Waddell | .281 | .353 | .383 | 97 | 2.1 | .227 | .297 | .306 | 65 | -0.1 |
Drake Baldwin | .262 | .343 | .421 | 103 | 1.9 | .208 | .290 | .322 | 67 | -0.1 |
Forrest Wall | .271 | .333 | .389 | 96 | 2.0 | .216 | .281 | .301 | 61 | 0.0 |
Alejo Lopez | .289 | .358 | .382 | 102 | 2.0 | .234 | .307 | .307 | 68 | 0.0 |
Mitchell Tolman | .251 | .331 | .390 | 92 | 1.5 | .198 | .276 | .300 | 56 | -0.1 |
Yolmer Sánchez | .239 | .342 | .351 | 85 | 1.5 | .190 | .288 | .272 | 54 | -0.2 |
Jarred Kelenic | .265 | .342 | .462 | 112 | 1.7 | .210 | .290 | .356 | 75 | -0.6 |
Dalton Guthrie | .271 | .334 | .394 | 96 | 1.3 | .216 | .279 | .308 | 59 | -0.4 |
Luis Liberato | .255 | .328 | .427 | 101 | 1.2 | .203 | .269 | .336 | 64 | -0.3 |
Eli White | .240 | .323 | .379 | 88 | 1.0 | .181 | .258 | .279 | 47 | -0.3 |
Joe Hudson | .223 | .318 | .368 | 81 | 0.9 | .165 | .255 | .260 | 42 | -0.3 |
Kevin Pillar | .272 | .314 | .474 | 111 | 1.1 | .212 | .257 | .359 | 68 | -0.5 |
Daniel Robertson | .243 | .335 | .362 | 88 | 0.8 | .184 | .272 | .267 | 48 | -0.4 |
Cody Milligan | .263 | .337 | .350 | 85 | 1.0 | .210 | .284 | .277 | 53 | -0.7 |
Chadwick Tromp | .252 | .308 | .426 | 95 | 0.9 | .196 | .251 | .313 | 53 | -0.6 |
Dominic Miroglio | .259 | .322 | .407 | 94 | 0.8 | .194 | .258 | .294 | 51 | -0.6 |
Joe Dunand | .237 | .311 | .402 | 90 | 0.9 | .185 | .253 | .310 | 53 | -0.8 |
Luke Williams | .261 | .329 | .400 | 94 | 1.0 | .203 | .269 | .304 | 57 | -0.9 |
Ryan Casteel | .237 | .304 | .457 | 101 | 0.6 | .184 | .252 | .327 | 56 | -0.8 |
Eddie Rosario | .272 | .319 | .478 | 110 | 1.1 | .212 | .261 | .361 | 66 | -1.4 |
Magneuris Sierra | .252 | .303 | .347 | 75 | 0.6 | .202 | .253 | .276 | 44 | -0.7 |
Cade Bunnell | .212 | .301 | .389 | 85 | 1.0 | .153 | .245 | .279 | 43 | -1.3 |
Jesse Franklin V | .236 | .294 | .454 | 99 | 0.9 | .181 | .241 | .341 | 56 | -1.2 |
Andrew Velazquez | .229 | .302 | .365 | 77 | 0.9 | .175 | .243 | .264 | 38 | -0.9 |
Keshawn Ogans | .261 | .326 | .378 | 89 | 0.7 | .208 | .278 | .298 | 56 | -1.2 |
Justin Dean | .227 | .318 | .341 | 76 | 0.6 | .167 | .263 | .250 | 40 | -1.2 |
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. | .232 | .302 | .334 | 72 | 0.9 | .181 | .253 | .254 | 40 | -1.3 |
Ehire Adrianza | .271 | .348 | .402 | 103 | 0.1 | .215 | .287 | .311 | 64 | -0.6 |
Chad Pinder | .260 | .308 | .422 | 94 | 0.3 | .203 | .251 | .327 | 57 | -1.0 |
Jesús Aguilar | .268 | .328 | .420 | 99 | 0.4 | .212 | .275 | .327 | 62 | -1.4 |
David McCabe | .251 | .325 | .401 | 94 | 0.3 | .201 | .272 | .316 | 62 | -1.7 |
Sebastián Rivero | .252 | .299 | .368 | 77 | 0.0 | .191 | .238 | .276 | 41 | -1.3 |
Charlie Culberson | .255 | .298 | .370 | 78 | -0.3 | .189 | .234 | .272 | 36 | -1.2 |
Tyler Tolve | .239 | .297 | .413 | 88 | -0.1 | .185 | .242 | .304 | 47 | -1.4 |
Drew Campbell | .248 | .289 | .394 | 81 | 0.1 | .201 | .238 | .295 | 44 | -1.5 |
Andrew Moritz | .272 | .325 | .328 | 76 | -0.2 | .211 | .265 | .255 | 43 | -1.4 |
Landon Stephens | .219 | .299 | .426 | 91 | 0.3 | .158 | .244 | .309 | 50 | -1.9 |
Arden Pabst | .197 | .251 | .343 | 56 | -0.3 | .140 | .190 | .231 | 13 | -1.3 |
Jacob Pearson | .222 | .289 | .331 | 67 | -0.2 | .167 | .227 | .248 | 30 | -1.5 |
Joshua Fuentes | .251 | .290 | .368 | 76 | -0.1 | .194 | .235 | .278 | 39 | -1.7 |
Brandon Parker | .218 | .301 | .349 | 75 | -0.4 | .163 | .248 | .257 | 40 | -1.5 |
Beau Philip | .205 | .280 | .318 | 59 | -0.4 | .152 | .229 | .233 | 26 | -1.9 |
Javier Valdes | .265 | .357 | .426 | 112 | -0.2 | .196 | .296 | .309 | 65 | -1.8 |
Hendrik Clementina | .229 | .275 | .375 | 70 | -0.7 | .172 | .214 | .274 | 31 | -2.0 |
Geraldo Quintero | .259 | .325 | .356 | 85 | -0.3 | .207 | .274 | .277 | 51 | -2.4 |
Cal Conley | .243 | .300 | .341 | 72 | -0.4 | .196 | .252 | .274 | 42 | -2.5 |
Hudson Potts | .203 | .257 | .359 | 64 | -0.7 | .148 | .205 | .267 | 28 | -2.2 |
Bryson Worrell | .192 | .276 | .317 | 60 | -0.9 | .133 | .215 | .226 | 21 | -2.3 |
Bryson Horne | .231 | .269 | .348 | 65 | -1.3 | .179 | .217 | .265 | 30 | -3.1 |
Player | BA vs. L | OBP vs. L | SLG vs. L | BA vs. R | OBP vs. R | SLG vs. R |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | .304 | .412 | .602 | .304 | .399 | .585 |
Austin Riley | .288 | .363 | .548 | .279 | .346 | .506 |
Sean Murphy | .254 | .355 | .458 | .254 | .346 | .486 |
Matt Olson | .253 | .347 | .476 | .263 | .366 | .532 |
Michael Harris II | .266 | .311 | .435 | .285 | .328 | .476 |
Ozzie Albies | .295 | .343 | .512 | .264 | .321 | .465 |
Vaughn Grissom | .265 | .340 | .389 | .267 | .332 | .394 |
Travis d’Arnaud | .261 | .330 | .420 | .245 | .304 | .434 |
Marcell Ozuna | .254 | .328 | .475 | .253 | .325 | .464 |
Orlando Arcia | .255 | .322 | .416 | .250 | .306 | .392 |
Ignacio Alvarez | .248 | .341 | .329 | .238 | .317 | .333 |
David Fletcher | .278 | .320 | .352 | .273 | .311 | .343 |
Luke Waddell | .243 | .313 | .333 | .257 | .330 | .347 |
Drake Baldwin | .229 | .311 | .358 | .235 | .318 | .379 |
Forrest Wall | .227 | .295 | .333 | .251 | .318 | .351 |
Alejo Lopez | .257 | .335 | .323 | .262 | .331 | .351 |
Mitchell Tolman | .219 | .297 | .332 | .241 | .316 | .379 |
Yolmer Sánchez | .212 | .314 | .314 | .215 | .312 | .308 |
Jarred Kelenic | .235 | .307 | .403 | .241 | .319 | .414 |
Dalton Guthrie | .247 | .316 | .354 | .240 | .300 | .344 |
Luis Liberato | .224 | .295 | .362 | .235 | .305 | .390 |
Eli White | .204 | .297 | .347 | .210 | .286 | .319 |
Joe Hudson | .200 | .305 | .333 | .187 | .273 | .293 |
Kevin Pillar | .256 | .299 | .456 | .239 | .281 | .394 |
Daniel Robertson | .220 | .312 | .341 | .211 | .297 | .297 |
Cody Milligan | .226 | .297 | .297 | .248 | .322 | .326 |
Chadwick Tromp | .230 | .298 | .389 | .216 | .267 | .345 |
Dominic Miroglio | .227 | .301 | .355 | .217 | .283 | .339 |
Joe Dunand | .217 | .291 | .376 | .205 | .275 | .330 |
Luke Williams | .240 | .313 | .356 | .228 | .288 | .335 |
Ryan Casteel | .213 | .288 | .404 | .212 | .271 | .386 |
Eddie Rosario | .237 | .279 | .377 | .248 | .295 | .434 |
Magneuris Sierra | .226 | .270 | .310 | .227 | .281 | .308 |
Cade Bunnell | .177 | .272 | .323 | .187 | .274 | .337 |
Jesse Franklin V | .198 | .263 | .380 | .213 | .272 | .404 |
Andrew Velazquez | .210 | .282 | .328 | .196 | .260 | .296 |
Keshawn Ogans | .242 | .317 | .329 | .230 | .295 | .343 |
Justin Dean | .202 | .298 | .306 | .195 | .279 | .277 |
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. | .208 | .286 | .292 | .206 | .273 | .296 |
Ehire Adrianza | .250 | .333 | .364 | .241 | .309 | .356 |
Chad Pinder | .239 | .289 | .398 | .226 | .271 | .355 |
Jesús Aguilar | .242 | .314 | .379 | .239 | .296 | .372 |
David McCabe | .224 | .299 | .347 | .232 | .304 | .363 |
Sebastián Rivero | .224 | .274 | .316 | .217 | .261 | .322 |
Charlie Culberson | .231 | .275 | .354 | .216 | .255 | .295 |
Tyler Tolve | .211 | .265 | .355 | .213 | .268 | .361 |
Drew Campbell | .215 | .261 | .318 | .225 | .264 | .350 |
Andrew Moritz | .230 | .287 | .253 | .244 | .298 | .311 |
Landon Stephens | .194 | .284 | .378 | .183 | .262 | .356 |
Arden Pabst | .176 | .233 | .294 | .157 | .208 | .258 |
Jacob Pearson | .188 | .248 | .281 | .195 | .261 | .287 |
Joshua Fuentes | .226 | .267 | .343 | .218 | .259 | .301 |
Brandon Parker | .200 | .286 | .324 | .183 | .265 | .290 |
Beau Philip | .184 | .265 | .289 | .175 | .245 | .257 |
Javier Valdes | .230 | .328 | .372 | .228 | .319 | .359 |
Hendrik Clementina | .202 | .248 | .312 | .200 | .241 | .328 |
Geraldo Quintero | .225 | .296 | .302 | .234 | .300 | .323 |
Cal Conley | .209 | .262 | .299 | .227 | .281 | .311 |
Hudson Potts | .183 | .246 | .325 | .173 | .218 | .310 |
Bryson Worrell | .159 | .242 | .256 | .167 | .246 | .274 |
Bryson Horne | .197 | .234 | .299 | .209 | .251 | .310 |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Strider | R | 25 | 15 | 6 | 3.28 | 30 | 28 | 161.7 | 122 | 59 | 19 | 49 | 234 |
Max Fried | L | 30 | 11 | 5 | 3.27 | 23 | 23 | 129.3 | 119 | 47 | 11 | 35 | 118 |
Charlie Morton | R | 40 | 12 | 8 | 4.09 | 27 | 27 | 149.7 | 134 | 68 | 19 | 64 | 166 |
Bryce Elder | R | 25 | 9 | 6 | 4.22 | 29 | 29 | 157.7 | 154 | 74 | 19 | 59 | 130 |
Allan Winans | R | 28 | 7 | 6 | 4.34 | 24 | 18 | 120.3 | 123 | 58 | 16 | 35 | 100 |
Ian Anderson | R | 26 | 8 | 7 | 4.44 | 24 | 24 | 121.7 | 116 | 60 | 16 | 54 | 114 |
Reynaldo López | R | 30 | 7 | 4 | 3.67 | 52 | 7 | 76.0 | 67 | 31 | 9 | 28 | 84 |
Raisel Iglesias | R | 34 | 6 | 3 | 3.09 | 57 | 0 | 55.3 | 47 | 19 | 7 | 13 | 70 |
AJ Smith-Shawver | R | 21 | 5 | 4 | 4.54 | 26 | 25 | 101.0 | 92 | 51 | 14 | 53 | 104 |
Luis De Avila | L | 23 | 8 | 7 | 4.75 | 25 | 25 | 115.7 | 120 | 61 | 15 | 53 | 92 |
Dylan Dodd | L | 26 | 7 | 7 | 4.67 | 22 | 20 | 104.0 | 112 | 54 | 15 | 33 | 78 |
Kolby Allard | L | 26 | 5 | 4 | 4.40 | 23 | 15 | 86.0 | 84 | 42 | 13 | 28 | 83 |
Darius Vines | R | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4.46 | 17 | 15 | 78.7 | 80 | 39 | 12 | 27 | 69 |
Huascar Ynoa | R | 26 | 5 | 4 | 4.35 | 16 | 14 | 70.3 | 66 | 34 | 9 | 29 | 71 |
A.J. Minter | L | 30 | 6 | 3 | 3.66 | 70 | 0 | 64.0 | 55 | 26 | 8 | 19 | 77 |
Hurston Waldrep | R | 22 | 1 | 1 | 4.45 | 19 | 19 | 64.7 | 60 | 32 | 9 | 34 | 68 |
Penn Murfee | R | 30 | 4 | 3 | 4.08 | 37 | 7 | 64.0 | 59 | 29 | 9 | 26 | 73 |
Nolan Kingham | R | 27 | 5 | 5 | 4.75 | 25 | 14 | 83.3 | 96 | 44 | 12 | 26 | 52 |
Matt Swarmer | R | 30 | 5 | 4 | 4.73 | 23 | 13 | 80.0 | 86 | 42 | 13 | 35 | 70 |
Dylan Lee | L | 29 | 4 | 2 | 3.38 | 44 | 0 | 48.0 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 52 |
Drew Parrish | L | 26 | 7 | 7 | 5.04 | 25 | 21 | 105.3 | 112 | 59 | 15 | 51 | 77 |
Yonny Chirinos | R | 30 | 5 | 5 | 4.78 | 22 | 12 | 92.3 | 100 | 49 | 14 | 29 | 59 |
Scott Blewett | R | 28 | 5 | 4 | 4.84 | 20 | 15 | 80.0 | 88 | 43 | 11 | 34 | 59 |
Zach Logue | L | 28 | 6 | 7 | 5.05 | 26 | 21 | 101.7 | 112 | 57 | 16 | 37 | 79 |
Collin McHugh | R | 37 | 3 | 2 | 4.19 | 40 | 3 | 58.0 | 59 | 27 | 8 | 20 | 55 |
Joe Jiménez | R | 29 | 3 | 1 | 3.61 | 56 | 0 | 52.3 | 44 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 68 |
Tyler Owens | R | 23 | 3 | 4 | 4.80 | 31 | 12 | 65.7 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 25 | 48 |
Pierce Johnson | R | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4.03 | 56 | 0 | 51.3 | 47 | 23 | 8 | 21 | 70 |
Aaron Bummer | L | 30 | 5 | 3 | 4.12 | 56 | 0 | 54.7 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 25 | 69 |
Nick Margevicius | L | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.84 | 22 | 11 | 61.3 | 71 | 33 | 9 | 19 | 42 |
Patrick Halligan | R | 24 | 5 | 5 | 4.90 | 26 | 8 | 64.3 | 71 | 35 | 9 | 24 | 46 |
Daniel Martinez | R | 25 | 4 | 5 | 5.20 | 22 | 15 | 81.3 | 90 | 47 | 13 | 35 | 61 |
Jose Montilla | R | 26 | 2 | 3 | 4.70 | 28 | 6 | 59.3 | 67 | 31 | 8 | 17 | 34 |
Jackson Stephens | R | 30 | 3 | 2 | 4.44 | 30 | 4 | 50.7 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 45 |
Beau Burrows | R | 27 | 4 | 5 | 5.11 | 30 | 11 | 74.0 | 77 | 42 | 10 | 37 | 62 |
Domingo Gonzalez | R | 24 | 4 | 5 | 4.91 | 31 | 7 | 69.7 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 34 | 62 |
Jake McSteen | L | 28 | 3 | 2 | 4.82 | 31 | 5 | 61.7 | 70 | 33 | 10 | 19 | 45 |
Dereck Rodríguez | R | 32 | 4 | 4 | 5.04 | 26 | 9 | 69.7 | 77 | 39 | 11 | 28 | 54 |
Grant Holmes | R | 28 | 4 | 3 | 4.50 | 40 | 3 | 56.0 | 58 | 28 | 8 | 24 | 52 |
Justus Sheffield | L | 28 | 5 | 5 | 5.23 | 23 | 15 | 75.7 | 86 | 44 | 11 | 40 | 60 |
Brooks Wilson | R | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4.46 | 21 | 2 | 36.3 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 17 | 41 |
Hayden Harris | L | 25 | 5 | 4 | 4.19 | 38 | 0 | 53.7 | 49 | 25 | 7 | 23 | 59 |
Jesse Chavez | R | 40 | 2 | 1 | 4.50 | 39 | 2 | 42.0 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
Angel Perdomo | L | 30 | 3 | 3 | 4.12 | 42 | 0 | 43.7 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 25 | 62 |
Tyler Matzek | L | 33 | 2 | 1 | 4.20 | 49 | 0 | 45.0 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 24 | 47 |
Coleman Huntley III | R | 31 | 3 | 2 | 4.60 | 25 | 2 | 45.0 | 47 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 41 |
Ty Tice | R | 27 | 2 | 2 | 4.70 | 39 | 2 | 51.7 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 25 | 52 |
Lucas Luetge | L | 37 | 3 | 2 | 4.43 | 38 | 0 | 42.7 | 47 | 21 | 6 | 14 | 40 |
Hayden Deal | L | 29 | 2 | 3 | 5.18 | 26 | 8 | 57.3 | 64 | 33 | 8 | 25 | 39 |
Ben Bowden | L | 29 | 4 | 3 | 4.59 | 46 | 0 | 49.0 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 26 | 57 |
Tommy Doyle | R | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4.67 | 43 | 0 | 52.0 | 51 | 27 | 8 | 24 | 50 |
Seth Elledge | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.65 | 41 | 0 | 50.3 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 22 | 47 |
Daysbel Hernández | R | 27 | 2 | 3 | 4.64 | 31 | 0 | 33.0 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 19 | 39 |
Roel Ramírez | R | 29 | 1 | 1 | 4.72 | 26 | 1 | 34.3 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 31 |
Brian Moran | L | 35 | 2 | 1 | 4.69 | 36 | 0 | 40.3 | 39 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 40 |
Danny Young | L | 30 | 1 | 1 | 4.67 | 32 | 0 | 34.7 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 18 | 38 |
Brad Hand | L | 34 | 4 | 3 | 4.82 | 52 | 0 | 46.7 | 45 | 25 | 7 | 21 | 44 |
Mike Morin | R | 33 | 1 | 0 | 5.20 | 26 | 1 | 27.7 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 23 |
Peyton Williams | R | 26 | 1 | 2 | 4.81 | 31 | 0 | 43.0 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 20 | 40 |
Alex Segal | L | 26 | 1 | 1 | 5.40 | 18 | 0 | 20.0 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 14 | 19 |
Miguel Pena | R | 25 | 3 | 3 | 5.23 | 30 | 0 | 41.3 | 43 | 24 | 6 | 21 | 36 |
Joe Harvey | R | 32 | 1 | 2 | 5.65 | 27 | 0 | 28.7 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 20 | 27 |
Jorge Juan | R | 25 | 2 | 3 | 5.77 | 27 | 1 | 39.0 | 37 | 25 | 6 | 32 | 40 |
Trey Riley | R | 26 | 2 | 3 | 5.62 | 36 | 0 | 41.7 | 43 | 26 | 6 | 30 | 35 |
Nick Howard | R | 31 | 1 | 1 | 6.26 | 22 | 0 | 23.0 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 19 | 17 |
Player | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | FIP | ERA- | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Strider | 161.7 | 13.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 7.5% | 35.7% | .299 | 132 | 2.96 | 75 | 3.8 |
Max Fried | 129.3 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 6.5% | 21.9% | .293 | 133 | 3.44 | 75 | 3.1 |
Charlie Morton | 149.7 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 10.0% | 25.9% | .296 | 106 | 4.23 | 94 | 2.4 |
Bryce Elder | 157.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 8.6% | 19.0% | .290 | 103 | 4.45 | 97 | 2.3 |
Allan Winans | 120.3 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.7% | 19.2% | .298 | 100 | 4.39 | 100 | 1.6 |
Ian Anderson | 121.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 10.1% | 21.4% | .292 | 98 | 4.45 | 102 | 1.5 |
Reynaldo López | 76.0 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 8.7% | 26.1% | .294 | 119 | 3.77 | 84 | 1.4 |
Raisel Iglesias | 55.3 | 11.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5.8% | 31.1% | .301 | 141 | 3.13 | 71 | 1.2 |
AJ Smith-Shawver | 101.0 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 11.7% | 23.0% | .289 | 96 | 4.69 | 104 | 1.2 |
Luis De Avila | 115.7 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10.3% | 17.8% | .299 | 92 | 4.91 | 109 | 1.1 |
Dylan Dodd | 104.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 7.3% | 17.2% | .300 | 93 | 4.64 | 107 | 1.0 |
Kolby Allard | 86.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 7.6% | 22.6% | .296 | 99 | 4.34 | 101 | 1.0 |
Darius Vines | 78.7 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 7.9% | 20.2% | .297 | 98 | 4.55 | 103 | 1.0 |
Huascar Ynoa | 70.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 9.5% | 23.4% | .297 | 100 | 4.26 | 100 | 0.9 |
A.J. Minter | 64.0 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 7.2% | 29.2% | .297 | 119 | 3.46 | 84 | 0.9 |
Hurston Waldrep | 64.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 11.7% | 23.4% | .295 | 98 | 4.63 | 102 | 0.8 |
Penn Murfee | 64.0 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 9.4% | 26.4% | .303 | 107 | 4.21 | 94 | 0.8 |
Nolan Kingham | 83.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 7.1% | 14.1% | .305 | 92 | 4.92 | 109 | 0.7 |
Matt Swarmer | 80.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 9.8% | 19.6% | .308 | 92 | 4.97 | 109 | 0.7 |
Dylan Lee | 48.0 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5.6% | 26.4% | .299 | 129 | 3.40 | 78 | 0.7 |
Drew Parrish | 105.3 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10.8% | 16.2% | .296 | 86 | 5.24 | 116 | 0.7 |
Yonny Chirinos | 92.3 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 7.2% | 14.6% | .290 | 91 | 5.02 | 110 | 0.7 |
Scott Blewett | 80.0 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 9.4% | 16.3% | .306 | 90 | 4.96 | 111 | 0.6 |
Zach Logue | 101.7 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 8.2% | 17.6% | .306 | 86 | 5.05 | 116 | 0.6 |
Collin McHugh | 58.0 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 8.0% | 22.0% | .307 | 104 | 4.34 | 96 | 0.6 |
Joe Jiménez | 52.3 | 11.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 7.8% | 31.3% | .295 | 120 | 3.85 | 83 | 0.5 |
Tyler Owens | 65.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 8.6% | 16.6% | .301 | 91 | 4.90 | 110 | 0.5 |
Pierce Johnson | 51.3 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 9.4% | 31.3% | .325 | 108 | 3.78 | 93 | 0.5 |
Aaron Bummer | 54.7 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10.5% | 29.1% | .303 | 106 | 3.99 | 95 | 0.4 |
Nick Margevicius | 61.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 7.0% | 15.4% | .312 | 90 | 4.87 | 111 | 0.4 |
Patrick Halligan | 64.3 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 8.3% | 16.0% | .304 | 89 | 4.90 | 113 | 0.4 |
Daniel Martinez | 81.3 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 9.5% | 16.5% | .303 | 84 | 5.42 | 120 | 0.4 |
Jose Montilla | 59.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.6% | 13.1% | .298 | 93 | 4.82 | 108 | 0.4 |
Jackson Stephens | 50.7 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 8.2% | 20.5% | .304 | 98 | 4.58 | 102 | 0.4 |
Beau Burrows | 74.0 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 11.1% | 18.6% | .302 | 85 | 5.00 | 117 | 0.3 |
Domingo Gonzalez | 69.7 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10.8% | 19.7% | .300 | 89 | 5.15 | 113 | 0.3 |
Jake McSteen | 61.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 7.0% | 16.5% | .308 | 90 | 4.88 | 111 | 0.3 |
Dereck Rodríguez | 69.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 9.0% | 17.4% | .306 | 86 | 5.09 | 116 | 0.3 |
Grant Holmes | 56.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.6% | 20.8% | .309 | 97 | 4.70 | 103 | 0.3 |
Justus Sheffield | 75.7 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 11.4% | 17.0% | .318 | 83 | 5.34 | 120 | 0.3 |
Brooks Wilson | 36.3 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10.4% | 25.0% | .305 | 98 | 4.27 | 102 | 0.3 |
Hayden Harris | 53.7 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 9.7% | 25.0% | .298 | 104 | 4.26 | 96 | 0.3 |
Jesse Chavez | 42.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 8.7% | 24.0% | .313 | 97 | 4.54 | 103 | 0.3 |
Angel Perdomo | 43.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 13.0% | 32.3% | .295 | 106 | 4.26 | 95 | 0.2 |
Tyler Matzek | 45.0 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 12.0% | 23.5% | .286 | 104 | 4.63 | 97 | 0.2 |
Coleman Huntley III | 45.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 8.6% | 20.7% | .311 | 95 | 4.50 | 106 | 0.2 |
Ty Tice | 51.7 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 10.7% | 22.3% | .303 | 93 | 4.69 | 108 | 0.2 |
Lucas Luetge | 42.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 7.4% | 21.1% | .325 | 98 | 4.40 | 102 | 0.1 |
Hayden Deal | 57.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.6% | 15.0% | .304 | 84 | 5.28 | 119 | 0.1 |
Ben Bowden | 49.0 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 11.8% | 25.9% | .310 | 95 | 4.44 | 106 | 0.1 |
Tommy Doyle | 52.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10.3% | 21.6% | .297 | 93 | 4.72 | 107 | 0.1 |
Seth Elledge | 50.3 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.7% | 20.8% | .306 | 94 | 4.69 | 107 | 0.1 |
Daysbel Hernández | 33.0 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 12.8% | 26.2% | .301 | 94 | 4.77 | 107 | 0.0 |
Roel Ramírez | 34.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.6% | 19.9% | .307 | 92 | 4.83 | 108 | 0.0 |
Brian Moran | 40.3 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 9.1% | 22.9% | .297 | 93 | 4.84 | 108 | 0.0 |
Danny Young | 34.7 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 11.5% | 24.4% | .312 | 93 | 4.93 | 107 | 0.0 |
Brad Hand | 46.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 10.2% | 21.5% | .290 | 90 | 4.99 | 111 | 0.0 |
Mike Morin | 27.7 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.8% | 18.9% | .293 | 84 | 4.99 | 120 | 0.0 |
Peyton Williams | 43.0 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 10.4% | 20.8% | .301 | 90 | 4.88 | 111 | -0.1 |
Alex Segal | 20.0 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 14.7% | 20.0% | .298 | 81 | 5.71 | 124 | -0.2 |
Miguel Pena | 41.3 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 11.1% | 18.9% | .303 | 83 | 5.14 | 120 | -0.2 |
Joe Harvey | 28.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 14.9% | 20.1% | .296 | 77 | 5.94 | 130 | -0.3 |
Jorge Juan | 39.0 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 16.7% | 20.8% | .295 | 75 | 5.97 | 133 | -0.3 |
Trey Riley | 41.7 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 14.9% | 17.4% | .298 | 77 | 5.82 | 129 | -0.4 |
Nick Howard | 23.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 16.7% | 14.9% | .306 | 70 | 6.78 | 144 | -0.4 |
Player | BA vs. L | OBP vs. L | SLG vs. L | BA vs. R | OBP vs. R | SLG vs. R | 80th WAR | 20th WAR | 80th ERA | 20th ERA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Strider | .223 | .289 | .373 | .186 | .257 | .317 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.55 | 4.00 |
Max Fried | .226 | .281 | .339 | .243 | .296 | .366 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.82 | 3.93 |
Charlie Morton | .241 | .343 | .426 | .228 | .304 | .360 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 3.35 | 4.95 |
Bryce Elder | .266 | .340 | .453 | .236 | .306 | .359 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 3.76 | 4.78 |
Allan Winans | .279 | .338 | .451 | .242 | .302 | .404 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 3.79 | 4.80 |
Ian Anderson | .219 | .302 | .351 | .270 | .341 | .459 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 3.99 | 5.21 |
Reynaldo López | .230 | .316 | .396 | .232 | .287 | .358 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 3.05 | 4.71 |
Raisel Iglesias | .245 | .288 | .429 | .205 | .256 | .330 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 2.21 | 4.38 |
AJ Smith-Shawver | .241 | .332 | .412 | .234 | .333 | .398 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 3.93 | 5.25 |
Luis De Avila | .252 | .353 | .412 | .266 | .341 | .434 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 4.31 | 5.27 |
Dylan Dodd | .256 | .307 | .402 | .274 | .330 | .458 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 4.15 | 5.29 |
Kolby Allard | .240 | .295 | .396 | .254 | .314 | .442 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.80 | 5.20 |
Darius Vines | .253 | .317 | .418 | .262 | .318 | .457 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3.92 | 5.07 |
Huascar Ynoa | .238 | .326 | .381 | .247 | .315 | .411 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 3.76 | 5.05 |
A.J. Minter | .213 | .264 | .288 | .233 | .296 | .423 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 2.71 | 4.97 |
Hurston Waldrep | .250 | .352 | .411 | .230 | .315 | .397 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 3.91 | 5.29 |
Penn Murfee | .243 | .331 | .405 | .235 | .309 | .404 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 3.37 | 5.04 |
Nolan Kingham | .293 | .345 | .465 | .275 | .330 | .456 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 4.31 | 5.32 |
Matt Swarmer | .267 | .341 | .459 | .270 | .340 | .460 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 4.11 | 5.33 |
Dylan Lee | .222 | .258 | .365 | .246 | .290 | .410 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 2.63 | 4.31 |
Drew Parrish | .264 | .359 | .376 | .268 | .347 | .464 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 4.56 | 5.68 |
Yonny Chirinos | .257 | .319 | .433 | .281 | .335 | .467 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 4.27 | 5.41 |
Scott Blewett | .283 | .358 | .472 | .264 | .333 | .417 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 4.31 | 5.47 |
Zach Logue | .252 | .317 | .396 | .282 | .351 | .480 | 1.1 | -0.2 | 4.53 | 5.79 |
Collin McHugh | .255 | .325 | .436 | .261 | .321 | .412 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 3.31 | 5.31 |
Joe Jiménez | .225 | .303 | .416 | .220 | .289 | .376 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.77 | 4.66 |
Tyler Owens | .262 | .333 | .429 | .277 | .346 | .460 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 4.29 | 5.46 |
Pierce Johnson | .233 | .317 | .378 | .241 | .303 | .444 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 2.80 | 5.87 |
Aaron Bummer | .203 | .272 | .324 | .239 | .344 | .410 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 3.10 | 5.55 |
Nick Margevicius | .269 | .326 | .462 | .291 | .346 | .471 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 4.33 | 5.49 |
Patrick Halligan | .284 | .364 | .474 | .266 | .321 | .434 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 4.40 | 5.49 |
Daniel Martinez | .285 | .370 | .457 | .266 | .343 | .469 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 4.82 | 5.96 |
Jose Montilla | .274 | .328 | .479 | .285 | .331 | .415 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 4.18 | 5.19 |
Jackson Stephens | .272 | .346 | .457 | .250 | .317 | .407 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 3.80 | 5.31 |
Beau Burrows | .258 | .351 | .422 | .265 | .349 | .440 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 4.59 | 5.94 |
Domingo Gonzalez | .261 | .373 | .462 | .256 | .339 | .404 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 4.46 | 5.54 |
Jake McSteen | .231 | .274 | .359 | .302 | .356 | .512 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 4.23 | 5.54 |
Dereck Rodríguez | .256 | .336 | .442 | .289 | .351 | .480 | 0.9 | -0.2 | 4.38 | 5.75 |
Grant Holmes | .260 | .339 | .394 | .263 | .338 | .466 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 3.85 | 5.31 |
Justus Sheffield | .242 | .346 | .374 | .296 | .381 | .495 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 4.72 | 5.91 |
Brooks Wilson | .246 | .342 | .406 | .236 | .309 | .417 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 3.75 | 5.31 |
Hayden Harris | .222 | .310 | .349 | .243 | .329 | .417 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 3.55 | 4.97 |
Jesse Chavez | .256 | .333 | .423 | .261 | .320 | .477 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 3.30 | 6.50 |
Angel Perdomo | .182 | .308 | .327 | .222 | .341 | .398 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 3.26 | 5.23 |
Tyler Matzek | .208 | .300 | .358 | .244 | .345 | .412 | 0.7 | -0.3 | 3.43 | 5.34 |
Coleman Huntley III | .256 | .333 | .442 | .269 | .337 | .419 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 3.90 | 5.48 |
Ty Tice | .278 | .375 | .478 | .225 | .315 | .360 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 4.03 | 5.45 |
Lucas Luetge | .246 | .303 | .377 | .288 | .355 | .486 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 3.63 | 5.82 |
Hayden Deal | .274 | .357 | .438 | .278 | .358 | .449 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 4.71 | 5.89 |
Ben Bowden | .273 | .342 | .409 | .226 | .331 | .411 | 0.6 | -0.5 | 3.75 | 5.70 |
Tommy Doyle | .250 | .342 | .427 | .252 | .314 | .430 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 3.90 | 5.57 |
Seth Elledge | .276 | .354 | .494 | .243 | .325 | .369 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 3.90 | 5.51 |
Daysbel Hernández | .242 | .365 | .419 | .231 | .320 | .415 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 3.80 | 5.62 |
Roel Ramírez | .262 | .357 | .443 | .263 | .329 | .434 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 4.15 | 5.72 |
Brian Moran | .241 | .349 | .407 | .252 | .333 | .437 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 3.76 | 6.04 |
Danny Young | .208 | .321 | .313 | .273 | .375 | .489 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 3.85 | 5.88 |
Brad Hand | .218 | .306 | .309 | .260 | .354 | .472 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 3.86 | 6.11 |
Mike Morin | .271 | .375 | .438 | .246 | .309 | .443 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 4.51 | 6.01 |
Peyton Williams | .266 | .363 | .443 | .244 | .330 | .411 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 4.25 | 5.47 |
Alex Segal | .250 | .379 | .417 | .255 | .373 | .418 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 4.87 | 6.31 |
Miguel Pena | .276 | .382 | .474 | .250 | .330 | .409 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 4.70 | 5.98 |
Joe Harvey | .255 | .388 | .455 | .259 | .362 | .466 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 4.91 | 7.05 |
Jorge Juan | .250 | .407 | .458 | .241 | .371 | .405 | 0.0 | -0.7 | 5.03 | 6.62 |
Trey Riley | .260 | .387 | .455 | .261 | .377 | .420 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 5.02 | 6.49 |
Nick Howard | .310 | .453 | .548 | .255 | .371 | .431 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 5.41 | 7.14 |
Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
my god.
…it’s full of stars!
That Acuna projection seems like… a bit much. It’s not impossible, certainly, but it seems like a stretch to say that a player who put up an 11% K rate after never being below 23% before is going to repeat that. A whole lot of different things had to go right for Acuna to have the season he had last year, and it just seems way too easy for any one of them to revert and for him to be more good than great. I don’t know; Steamer projects 4 players for 6+ WAR next season – Acuna, Soto, Judge, Betts – and I feel like Acuna is the least likely of the 4 to hit that.
Not sure what exactly had to go right for him to put up that season… Acuna underperformed his xwOBA by a good bit (I think by even more than his spray chart would suggest he should, although I could be wrong). He also struggled to tap into his power until the end of the season when his launch angle seemed to improve. And ZiPS doesn’t project him to repeat his 11% K rate, it’s projecting a 16.6% K rate! If he repeats his 11% rate from 2023, the projection would be far higher.
Maybe Soto is more likely to put up 6+ WAR (although I disagree). But Mookie is 31 and Judge is both 32 and injury prone.
I’m not gonna deny that Judge is injury-prone, but it’s just true that over the last three years Judge has played in 411 games and Acuna has played in 360 games. Last year was only the second time in 6 seasons that Acuna managed to play as many as 120 games. There’s no reason to consider him any less injury prone than Judge.
Acuna has only one season of showing that he can be healthy and play like this. Over the last 3 years, the fWAR/600 PA’s for those four players is:
Judge: 7.6
Betts: 6.0
Acuna: 5.5
Soto: 4.9
Acuna’s 2023 season is a serious outlier in terms of his past production. That’s not the case for Soto (had a slight down year); Betts (best season since 2018, but not wildly out of line with past production); or Judge (typical production, with about 40 games missed due to poor outfield design in Los Angeles).
Acuna had his highest BABIP since his rookie year in 2018; cut his strikeouts in more than half from any other season of his career; and combined that led to a batting average 45 points higher than any season he’d ever previously had. Acuna is an extremely good player. But 2023 is the best season he will ever have, just like 2022 is the best season Judge will ever have. Projecting Acuna to have over 7 fWAR when his second-best season is 5.4 is… just silly.
He was on pace for nearly a 9 fWAR season in 2021 before he tore his ACL so last year didn’t come out of nowhere. Even if he regressed the second half of 2021, he still would’ve likely cleared 7 fWAR.
Yes his babip was higher than in previous seasons but once again, he underperformed his xwOBA even after accounting for his spray chart. His wRC+ wasn’t fluky and in fact, he likely got a little unlucky. And yes, his strikeout rate was cut in half, but ZiPS isn’t projecting him to repeat that strikeout rate! It would be just as naive to expect his K% to entirely revert back to ~24% as it would be to expect him to repeat the ~11%. That’s why projection systems have it somewhere in between, because that’s likely where it will fall.
As for Acuna vs Judge injury concerns, I think the raw games missed is a bit deceptive. Acuna has one major injury that he seems to have fully recovered from. Judge has had many, many injuries over the years. He is also six years older and 6’7, neither of which are conducive towards playing a full season (especially if he spends a lot of time in CF).
The outlier is 2022, his return from injury season??? We start seeing the elite shining through his age 21 season in 2019 when he nearly dropped a 40-40 season. Then in 2020 and 2021 he is on pace for 8+ win seasons (above avg baserunning and defense with mid 150’s wRC+). He then injures his knee and returns the next season and is not 100% but still plays. He is still a 3-4 win player at this level. Then his next full season he plays up to his potential and improves on his biggest flaw K%, and somehow that’s the outlier?
This is just bad trolling qualifying everyone else but not Acuna
Not at all interested in qualifying that with “probably”?
Also, this is partly wrong and partly deceptive:
The part that’s wrong is that he’s exceeded that total four times in the past 6 seasons: 2023 (159 games), 2022 (125 games, including 6 on rehab assignment) 2019 (156 games) and 2018 (134 games, 23 of those in the minors). You don’t get to throw out 2018 if your point is about his health and availability. And the part that’s deceptive is that he played 46 games in 2020, the equivalent of 124 games in a 162-game schedule.
The ignorance in this is the fact that he’s only 25 and we have literally one full season to compare it to that wasn’t in some way hindered by injury or shortened. 2019 is the only comparable season because of 2020 (for obvious reasons) and 21/22 he had and ACL tear and coming back from that it was obvious he wasn’t the same at the time.
Yes his K rate came down almost unbelievably last season to the point where it may be hard to sustain that rate, but we honestly don’t have much to compare it to fairly.
It’s just… hard to believe you’re making these argument for a 25 year old as though he’s at his peak and has no time to improve.
You’re citing BABIP as if it trumps underperformance of xwOBA. Also, you’re acting as if the dude didn’t come back from a torn ACL in 2022. You are clearly biased in this discussion.
Why all the downvotes for this mild skepticism? The post seems pretty reasonable.
Turning one single injury into a whole narrative about Acuña’s health is asinine. He’s a 25-year old athlete with one injury of any note. There’s no more reason to think Acuña will get hurt than pretty much anyone else.
Saying “he has only played 120 games twice in six years” is a hilariously silly cherry pick.
First, one of those six years was his rookie year, where Acuña, like almost any great prospect at the time, was kept down a few weeks for service time.
Then, another year was 2020. Guess how many players played 120 games in 2020? Go on, guess?
And then you have a single injury that cost him time over two seasons, including limiting him to 119 MLB games in 2022.
If the Braves hadn’t manipulated his ST, Covid never happened, and he tore his ACL a month earlier in 2021, he’d have played over 130 games in 5/6 seasons.
It’s weird how people choose to throw out these clearly ridiculous “stats” seemingly with the knowledge that we all have access to the internet to vet them and discover they are actually pretty stupid.
I’m referring to Pepper Martin’s post (did I reply to the wrong one?):
It mentions a lot of reasons one might be skeptical of the projection. I can see people disagreeing but I always thought of downvotes as a way of indicating something a bit stronger than disagreement.
FWIW, I downvoted his followup where he lied about Acuña’s playing time, but not the first comment which is just reasonably skeptical of how high ZiPS is on Acuña’s future performance.
But the projection doesn’t assume an 11% K rate, nor does it expect him to run a .338 BABIP again. So the projection already takes into account most of his critiques.
exactly
I downvoted several (but not all) of his comments because he misrepresented the data in the post. Then did it again after having it pointed out directly.