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- Paris 2024
The USA’s Olympic swimming trials have finished. Australia’s stars have work to do
By Tom Decent
Australia’s goal of beating the USA in an Olympic swimming competition for the first time in 68 years may hinge on Kaylee McKeown, Sam Short, the country’s female freestylers and the hope returning American superstar Caeleb Dressel doesn’t fire in Paris.
The Dolphins have plenty of work to do after the performances of American swimmers at their Olympic trials in Indianapolis, which wrapped up on Sunday (Monday morning, AEST).
As the Dolphins settled into their new French base in Canet, at the foot of the Pyrenees, the trial times suggest the USA swimming team will be a force in Paris.
A quick refresher
Australia has not beaten the USA in an Olympic swimming competition since the 1956 Melbourne Games. At the last Olympics in Tokyo in 2021, the USA won 11 gold medals to Australia’s nine. It was the closest Australia had come to the USA since Melbourne.
At last year’s world swimming championships in Japan, Australia trumped the USA, winning 13 gold medals to seven. Even if you take away the races at those world championships that won’t be on the schedule in Paris, Australia won 11 golds to the USA’s six.
What’s happened since?
Barely any of the sport’s top swimmers competed at the world championships in Doha earlier this year. However, the respective trial results gauge how swimmers are faring ahead of the Olympics. Of course, the pressure that comes with competing in an Olympic pool cannot be factored in.
Who’s better on paper at the moment?
There are 28 individual swimming gold medals at the Olympics — 14 for the men and 14 for the women — as well as seven relays. For a more accurate guide, we have crunched the numbers based on swimmers’ fastest times for the calendar year.
Based on that criteria, the USA would beat Australia in 19 of the 28 individual races. That’s not to say all would be gold medals.
Australia’s strength will be in the freestyle events, with Shayna Jack (50m freestyle), Cam McEvoy (50m freestyle), Mollie O’Callaghan (100m freestyle), Ariarne Titmus (200m and 400m freestyle) and Elijah Winnington (400m and 800m freestyle) all boasting superior times this year than their American rivals.
Elsewhere, it’s not great reading for the Dolphins. Of the 16 non-freestyle events, McKeown (200m backstroke and 200m individual medley) is the only Australian with a faster time this year than a USA swimmer.
Comparing times across all races, the USA were more impressive at their trials. There were more personal bests and world-leading times. However, some Australian swimmers didn’t completely taper for trials.
“There’s a reason why they’ve topped the medal tally forever and a day. I’m not surprised,” said Australian head coach Rohan Taylor of the USA’s performances at trials. “We are firmly ready to go in there — whether our athletes are favourites or underdogs — and take on what’s in front of us. There is some pretty quick swimming going on there. That’s why they are No.1.”
Who stood out for the USA?
There were two world records at the US trials. Gretchen Walsh replicated her outstanding short-course form by smashing the women’s 100m butterfly world record before Regan Smith sent a warning to McKeown by lowering the Australian’s 100m backstroke world record. Jack Alexy’s time in the men’s 100m freestyle (47.08) was impressive, while Katie Ledecky won four freestyle events.
How can Australia beat the USA?
For Australia to beat the USA on the medal table, they’ll need to touch out their American rivals in close races and hope other countries can steal gold medals away from the USA. That’s what happened at last year’s world championships where the USA took home 20 silver medals, nearly three times as many as Australia.
There are five individual events where Australia has the fastest-ranked swimmer in the world this year, across all countries. They are the men’s 50m freestyle (McEvoy), women’s 200m freestyle (Titmus), women’s 400m freestyle (Titmus), women’s 200m backstroke (McKeown) and women’s 200m individual medley (McKeown).
Comparatively, there are seven individual events where the USA swimmers boast the world’s fastest time: the women’s 1500m freestyle (Ledecky), women’s 100m backstroke (Smith), men’s 100m backstroke (Ryan Murphy), men’s 200m backstroke (Murphy), men’s 200m breaststroke (Matthew Fallon), women’s 100m butterfly (Walsh) and men’s 400m individual medley (Carson Foster).
The Dolphins need McKeown to fire if they’re any chance of beating the USA on the medal table. If McKeown can make it back-to-back gold medals in the 100m and 200m backstroke events, she will land further psychological blows on Smith. McKeown is also up against Kate Douglass in the 200m individual medley.
The other key figure who could swing the ledger Australia’s way is Sam Short. The 20-year-old battled gastro at Australia’s trials and will fly under the radar leading into Paris where he is every chance of a medal in the 400m, 800m and 1500m freestyle events. He managed a gold (400m), silver (800m) and bronze (1500m) at last year’s world championships.
“Get him healthy and the sky is the limit. I back him,” said Short’s coach, Damien Jones.
The danger man for Australia is Caeleb Dressel, who after a long lay-off has made another USA Olympic team. Dressel didn’t feature last year at the world championships but is the reigning Olympic champion in the 50m freestyle, 100m freestyle and 100m butterfly. He’ll compete in the 50m freestyle and 100m butterfly in Paris. Dressel isn’t the fastest qualifier in either but knows how to win.
Then there are relays to consider. Australia’s women’s 4x100m and 4x200m relay teams are strong gold medal chances but outside of that, luck will need to go their way. The USA look strong in the men’s 4x100m freestyle and both medley relays.
Australian and American swimmers know Olympic gold medals aren’t won at trials but the scene is set for a tantalising showdown.
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