What we can expect from a Schmidt-coached Wallabies team

Reds coach Les Kiss has also done some of the heavy lifting for Schmidt. Before their quarter-final loss to the Chiefs, the Reds were conceding 9.1 penalties a game, the third best in the comp. Schmidt will demand the same of the Wallabies – certainly less than 10 a game.

They will compete hard in defence, especially close to their own line, but those penalties are very different from the avoidable or lazy ones the Wallabies have conceded far too often in recent years.

Set-piece: Cron’s philosophy in New Zealand was to use the scrum as a platform to attack, rather than a weapon in itself, but Taniela Tupou’s intriguing selection in the No.3 jersey points to a more destructive mindset. Wales were under severe pressure at the scrum against the Springboks at Twickenham two weeks ago, so the Wallabies appear to be of the mindset that they can cause some damage early until the big man runs out of gas.

There were signs towards the end of Super Rugby Pacific that Tupou was re-emerging as a scrum monster, and the mind boggles at what an elite technician such as Cron can do with such a force of nature.

Parity will be demanded at the very least, because Schmidt has assembled some genuine footballers in the back line who run some excellent lines.

First-phase moves: Schmidt has become renowned for his strike plays and his love of manipulating defences. Famously in 2018, Ireland’s first home win against the All Blacks featured an innovative move from the lineout in which Ireland switched back to the blindside after two passes and caught New Zealand napping.

Whether the Wallabies have had the time to try something like that after their limited preparation remains to be seen, but it was symbolic of how Ireland were constantly looking for weak spots in the opposition under Schmidt.

Bundee Aki was the player who was central to that move and Wallabies No.12 Hunter Paisami, whose attacking play blossomed under Kiss at the Reds this year, is the player I’ll be keeping my eye on. His hard-running lines mean the Welsh will have to muscle up against him, but the All Blacks under Schmidt ran an attacking play against Argentina last year in which a big, direct No.12 was also critical. In that example, it was Jordie Barrett as the key distributor in a Damian McKenzie loop play, with Barrett taking it to the line before pulling it back to McKenzie to race through a hole.

Expect to see Paisami be the central figure in the Wallabies shape. Will he hit the line? Is he the decoy? Will he play the ball late at the line? It’s the doubt he creates that Schmidt will be keen to exploit.

The captaincy: Why has Schmidt picked Liam Wright? Obviously he has been impressed by Wright’s leadership qualities in camp, although Schmidt has also been at pains to say this could only be a short-term appointment. But the three other reasons are likely the discipline of the Reds side this year (see item No.2), his set-piece work and his ability over the ball.

Wright was actually the leading lineout winner across the entire Super Rugby Pacific competition –he was quite simply a dominant presence on the Reds’ throw, even if he didn’t have the lineout steal statistics of someone like a Charlie Cale. Wright was also in the top 10 for turnovers won, and the combination of securing the ball and turning over opposition ball is a rare one. He’s a safe pair of hands – quite literally – and his ability to cover No.7 gives Schmidt the capacity to have a change agent, such as Cale, on the bench.

Watch every July International Test Rugby match ad-free, live and on demand on Stan Sport with All Blacks v England (Saturday 4pm AEST), Wallaroos v Fijiana (Saturday 4.30pm AEST), Japan v Maori All Blacks (Saturday 6.50pm AEST), Wallabies v Wales (Saturday 7pm AEST), South Africa v Ireland (Sunday 12am AEST) and Argentina v France (Sunday 4.50am AEST).

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