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Reasons to be cheerful/not despair?

176 replies

teawamutu · 05/07/2024 08:11

Indulge me, I'm feeling a bit doomy this morning (and very sad to be so, because a few years ago I'd have been doing cartwheels about this result).

We're better off than we were five years ago, right?

We have the Cass Report.

We have Forstater and various other legal decisions, with more pending.

There's a conversation around the harms of medicalising confused children.

Gender ideology is more to the 'controversial' end of the scale than 'right side of history'.

No-one will ever unsee Isla Bryson.

What else? I know there's a long road ahead, but what other foundations do we have to stand on as we prepare to fight ALL OVER AGAIN?

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OP posts:
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duc748 · 05/07/2024 23:21

Worse still, the data suggests that the number of 18 year olds registering to vote is shrinking year on year ATM. 

But if that's the case, maybe giving 16 year old the vote wouldn't be such a disaster? Although I don't think it's a good idea; 18 is fine.

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NoBinturongsHereMate · 05/07/2024 23:29

Lammy being Foreign Sec has its pros - no direct role in any domestic policy likely to affect women, and he should be too busy for too .uch ad hoc involvement.

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LiterallyOnFire · 05/07/2024 23:35

BlackForestCake · 05/07/2024 20:41

Appalonia is right. The "landslide" masks a huge lurch to the right in the way people actually voted. The increase in the Labour vote, Sir John Curtice said earlier, is entirely accounted for by them winning back all those seats in Scotland.

It is an absolute freak result.

If we had PR right now, we'd look a lot like France or Germany with a large far right bloc in parliament.

Edited

Voters knew they were casting their votes in a FPTP system, though. Meaning many felt there was some latitude to indulge in protest voting.

So we have to be cautious about assuming all votes would have been cast in the same way if we had a PR system.

It's a very interesting set of results, though.

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duc748 · 06/07/2024 00:16

Agree. I think a lot of people may have voted Reform, but that doesn't mean they want Nigel Farage to be PM.

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Appalonia · 06/07/2024 00:49

I can only hope that Labour will be so focussed on trying to fix the economic problems of the UK and increase prosperity ( which is the ONLY thing that will get them re-elected IMO ), that gender ideology gets sidelined...for now.

We will see!

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RedToothBrush · 06/07/2024 04:20

duc748 · 05/07/2024 23:21

Worse still, the data suggests that the number of 18 year olds registering to vote is shrinking year on year ATM. 

But if that's the case, maybe giving 16 year old the vote wouldn't be such a disaster? Although I don't think it's a good idea; 18 is fine.

Only to a point. It gives them an extra two years of potential voters, but they still have to bother to register. And then actually vote.

About 50% of 18 to 25 year olds vote Labour, but the trend for that age group has been an increasingly bigger vote share to the LDs and greens than the age group above. Which might not necessarily work in their favour.

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RedToothBrush · 06/07/2024 04:38

LiterallyOnFire · 05/07/2024 23:35

Voters knew they were casting their votes in a FPTP system, though. Meaning many felt there was some latitude to indulge in protest voting.

So we have to be cautious about assuming all votes would have been cast in the same way if we had a PR system.

It's a very interesting set of results, though.

Show quote history

A lot of voters don't vote for who they want due to FPTP. There are loads of people who have this idea about 'wasted votes' (as I've tried to point out the fact that political airtime is affected by the popular vote, means actually there is a point to 'wasted votes'. They can also protect a smaller party financially by helping with retention of their deposit which helps them to stand more candidates in future).

The comment of this election seems to be that people feel political homeless and not enthusiastic about Labour. It's significant. Labour can't rely on those who HAVE voted for them. They know voter retention is going to have to be worked on harder.

The trend of 18 to 25 year olds voting more for other parties on the left / centre may squeeze them and again I suspect we will soon see a drop off of the Labour vote in the youngest age group as there's more of a sense of Labour being the enemy because they are the establishment and they are the government so can carry the blame for not bringing desired changes. Look out for those green concerns.

Labour are now in a situation where they have to deliver or they will have disillusionment amongst their own. How many who were enthusiastic Labour voters will disappear after 5 years if there isn't significant improvement in issues which probably would take longer to fix anyway.

We already know that a number of their policies are going to have a problem when they make contact with water. That conversion therapy bill absolutely has human rights challenge by gay lawyers written all over it. Identity linked progressive policies are flagging as highly controversial when the pressures are really economic and drove the Tory collapse.

It's a bit of a shit position to be in tbh.

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anyolddinosaur · 06/07/2024 11:25

Labour didnt win enthusiastic support - they form a government because people tactically voted the tories out, because Scotland was - understandably - sick of the SNP and because reform split the anti labour vote. . Although many people may not realise it the rise of reform is a threat to labour too.

The country's finances are not in a good state, making it hard for labour to deliver much to keep their support. There is still a war in Ukraine, the opportunity to lose a lot of support over Gaza and there are more female voters than male plus they are more likely to be floating voters. Labour cant afford to lose more women's votes if they want to be in power for more than one election.

The tories have also had a load of incompetents as leaders of the party. I dont include Sunak in that, he couldnt overcome the legacy of Cameron, Johnson, Truss, May, They havent got much to choose from now but if the remaining party dont rear off to the right they might present a more competent challenge in future. Reform cant replace the tories, however much farage would like to think they could, because they dont attract the floating voters.

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ResisterOfTwaddleRex · 06/07/2024 11:43

Labour didnt win enthusiastic support...

Reform just 340,000 votes from overtaking the Tories

digitaleditions.telegraph.co.uk/data/1752/reader/reader.html?social#!preferred/0/package/1752/pub/1752/page/24/article/NaN

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greenwoodentablelegs · 06/07/2024 11:47

I cba to read the thread but come on!

Two or three years ago it was all NO DEBATE !

Now there is debate - we have Cass. We have JKR

we are doing so much better than the TRAs fought so hard for !

lost Disgusting toad Lloyd Russel what’s it

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frenchnoodle · 06/07/2024 11:49

Thats a point, in 2019 it was a done deal for the TRA'S, We were set to follow(or maybe even slight ahead of) Canada. But that didn't happen, labour didn't get in that time, and it allowed time to put a spanner in the works which will hopefully take a while to unravel.

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Fukuraptor · 06/07/2024 12:04

I'm hopeful that the changes in Labour position/tone since Cass will hold. I wish I could be more certain.

More generally, I'm glad that KS seems to be creating a government focused on competence rather than a clique. He's made some interesting appointments e.g. Timpson for prisons.

https://x.com/krishgm/status/1809503192511602776?t=OTuAAnFlOqZIP4_kE2J-0A&s=08

He does seem to be taking the whole thing more seriously than Corbyn ever did.

x.com

https://x.com/krishgm/status/1809503192511602776?s=08&t=OTuAAnFlOqZIP4_kE2J-0A

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PeppercornMill · 06/07/2024 13:28

There again is an obsession over left and right wing.

Many left-wing feminists are now considered "right-wing" for being GC. Whilst Galloway lost, there were independents who won in regards to Gaza and have been very clear about knowing what a woman is, they would be regarded as left-wing (except the GC issues).

What genuinely worries me is how a lot of this legislation is apparently ready to go, it just requires sign-off. Whilst Rwanda was a bad idea, the fact that Starmer has been able to cancel it within hours worries me because I assume civil servants have already got the conversion therapy legislation written up and just awaiting sign-off.

Theresa May was liked by civil servants because she just allowed them to draw up their own legislation and a lot of the self-ID stuff was coming up under her watch.

Labour/Conservative/SNP it doesn't matter, the civil servants have their policies that they try to get the serving government to sign off.

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PeppercornMill · 06/07/2024 13:32

Fukuraptor · 06/07/2024 12:04

I'm hopeful that the changes in Labour position/tone since Cass will hold. I wish I could be more certain.

More generally, I'm glad that KS seems to be creating a government focused on competence rather than a clique. He's made some interesting appointments e.g. Timpson for prisons.

https://x.com/krishgm/status/1809503192511602776?t=OTuAAnFlOqZIP4_kE2J-0A&s=08

He does seem to be taking the whole thing more seriously than Corbyn ever did.

Yes, but he's assume given Patrick Vallance (Dr Lockdown) a peerage and a role as Science Minister. Vallance recently got a job working for the Tony Blair Institute.

So there are a lot of civil servants (like Sue Gray) just being handed jobs.

Essentially these people were in the last government, and have now got more prominent jobs in the new government, so I do wonder what exactly has changed.

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NoBinturongsHereMate · 06/07/2024 14:11

Whilst Rwanda was a bad idea, the fact that Starmer has been able to cancel it within hours worries me because I assume civil servants have already got the conversion therapy legislation written up and just awaiting sign-off.

It's not a mirror image process. Legislation can be stopped much more easily than it can be started - the latter requires it to go through all stages of parliamentary approval in both houses.

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ResisterOfTwaddleRex · 06/07/2024 14:27

I'm with @PeppercornMill here. There are free passes being given out "because Labour". This just isn't the way to evaluate transparency and fairness.

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ResisterOfTwaddleRex · 06/07/2024 14:28

I also think "I hope..." won't get us anywhere. The new government has to be assessed in the cold light of day. No free passes.

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Leniriefenstahl · 06/07/2024 15:05

PeppercornMill · 06/07/2024 13:28

There again is an obsession over left and right wing.

Many left-wing feminists are now considered "right-wing" for being GC. Whilst Galloway lost, there were independents who won in regards to Gaza and have been very clear about knowing what a woman is, they would be regarded as left-wing (except the GC issues).

What genuinely worries me is how a lot of this legislation is apparently ready to go, it just requires sign-off. Whilst Rwanda was a bad idea, the fact that Starmer has been able to cancel it within hours worries me because I assume civil servants have already got the conversion therapy legislation written up and just awaiting sign-off.

Theresa May was liked by civil servants because she just allowed them to draw up their own legislation and a lot of the self-ID stuff was coming up under her watch.

Labour/Conservative/SNP it doesn't matter, the civil servants have their policies that they try to get the serving government to sign off.

Rwanda was already laid to rest before the GE.

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lonelywater · 06/07/2024 15:16

think we are in a much better position than even a year ago. No debate is truly in the bin, sunlight pours in everywhere, employment tribunals only go one way. We are by no means done-far from it-but the more push back there is to the TRA bollocks they (the TRA's) will scream and scream until they are sick-which only does our work for us.

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Wistfullythinking · 06/07/2024 16:44

lonelywater · 06/07/2024 15:16

think we are in a much better position than even a year ago. No debate is truly in the bin, sunlight pours in everywhere, employment tribunals only go one way. We are by no means done-far from it-but the more push back there is to the TRA bollocks they (the TRA's) will scream and scream until they are sick-which only does our work for us.

I agree.

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WarriorN · 07/07/2024 08:00

He does seem to be taking the whole thing more seriously than Corbyn ever did.

Corbyn is where Labour went wrong and lost out.

Playground chat on Friday was was "my old dad voted Labour for the first time ever" because he's willing to pay taxes to sort the country out. Because house building will actually generate more money.

Another playground chat I had with an nhs consultant a couple of years ago was that his perception of KS was that the military background plus the lawyer background was exactly what the nhs needed as he would be logistically strategic rather than ideological.

Of course that remains to be seen wrt the trans debate. I am nervous about the schools guidance. And while we have Cass, Cass isn't the golden ticket many think. It still includes opportunities for children to transition. I'm not celebrating her peerage.

At least the debate was there in the GE and it feels easier to be outspoken. I also suspect it will fall out of favour with kids soon.

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TooBigForMyBoots · 07/07/2024 22:17

The Tory government is gone.🎉🎉🎉

They were really awful. They wrecked the UK with their incompetence, weakness, arrogance, stupidity, laziness and contempt and were a disaster for women. Fucking us over in ways I couldn't even imagine until they did it.

So don't despair @teawamutu, they're gone now. They can do their infighting and fuckwittery on the Opposition benches while the government is busy governing.

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duc748 · 09/07/2024 15:22

Ohdearwhatashamenevermind.

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