- Apollo's Scott Kleinman warned of a "dry spell" for investors as deals from a friendlier era unwind.
- Managers must adjust financial projections from deals done in the zero-interest rate era.
- Investors want their money back, but managers often don't want to sell at a perceived discount.
A leading private equity executive just warned that investors are in for a "pretty dry spell for a few years."
"I'm here to tell you everything is not going to be OK," Scott Kleinman, the co-president of Apollo Global Management, said at a session during Berlin's SuperReturn International conference on Wednesday.
Managers have to adjust their financial projections for deals struck in the looser world of zero interest rates, when financing was cheap and consumers spent more.
"It's going to be a little bit tougher for private equity firms to see the types of returns they were looking for, versus in years past," Kleinman told Bloomberg Television on the conference's sidelines.
Some fund managers have to think creatively about how they wind down these deals, since the public markets have been touch-and-go for initial public offerings and potential private buyers have higher debt costs than a few years ago.
Private equity firms can't hold their investments forever. Their fund agreements typically limit their involvement to about 10 years, from fundraising to purchasing to selling, although it's become more common for investors to agree to extend the fund's life.
Investors don't want their money tied up for long, since they can't reinvest it. Across every stage of investing, from venture capital's startups to private equity's late-stage companies, investors are clamoring to get their money back. But managers don't want to sell at what they think is a discount to what the investment is worth.
"Eventually, sponsors are just going to have to accept that the valuation environment is lower and start selling companies," Kleinman said.
Apollo, long known for distressed investing, will be ready to invest: It had $65 billion of dry powder on hand at the end of the first quarter. The firm manages more than $670 billion overall.
