The Northern Hemisphere has witnessed significant wildfire activity in April and May, with a number of large and active wildfires in Canada and across Eurasia. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS*) has been closely monitoring the situation, tracking active fire locations, fire radiative power and emissions, and forecasting the impacts of the resulting smoke on the atmosphere. Let’s take a closer look. This article has been updated to include complete data for May.
In its Climate Bulletin for April, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S*) notes that temperatures in Northern Canada last month were warmer than average. These warm temperatures, combined with drier than average soil moisture anomalies in April, have created conditions conducive to the scale of the wildfire activity in the region and, since 4 May, a number of large wildfires have developed in the province of Alberta.
Since the start of May, there has been significant wildfire activity in the Canadian province of Alberta, where there are currently 61 active wildfires burning, including 16 that are out of control. The wildfire activity witnessed earlier in the month is continuing in Saskatchewan also, where there are currently 20 active fires. According to the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency, the province has experienced 193 wildfires so far this year, compared to an annual five-year average of 122 wildfires.
Meanwhile, the British Colombia Wildfire Service informs there are currently 55 active wildfires in the province. The Canadian media is reporting that, for large sections of the British Colombia coast, the central interior and the northeast of the province, wildfire danger is now rated at ‘high’ to ‘extreme’, with forecasts for sunny dry weather and the wildfire service warning of possibly “significant fire activity” in parts of the province in the coming week. CAMS fire radiative power (FRP) data also indicate an increase in wildfire activity in the Northwest Territories at the end of May and, according to information from the territorial government, there are currently 10 active fires in the territory, with 177,769 hectares affected so far this year.
GFAS v1.2 daily total fire radiative power since 1 May (top row) and May total estimated wildfire carbon emissions (bottom row) for British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Source: CAMS
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Canada’s east coast is also currently experiencing unprecedented wildfire activity. In Nova Scotia, thousands of people have been forced from their homes with more than 20,000 hectares burning due to 13 active wildfires in the province, including three that are considered out of control. The smoke and haze from the Nova Scotia wildfires is affecting the neighbouring U.S. also, prompting air quality alerts for New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. CAMS estimated carbon emissions for Nova Scotia for the year are already the highest on record by a very significant margin.
The province of Ontario has also seen a significant increase in wildfire activity towards the end of May. Large fires are burning across northern Ontario and an extreme fire warning is in place for parts of the province. Ontario’s Ministry of Natural Resources & Forestry is implementing a Restricted Fire Zone for the Northeast Region and part of Southern Region of the province, starting Thursday June 1.
GFAS v1.2 daily total fire radiative power since 1 May (top row) and May total estimated wildfire carbon emissions (bottom row) for Northwest Territories, Ontario and Nova Scotia. Source: CAMS
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Record high carbon emissions
CAMS FRP data show daily total intensity to be well above the 2003-2022 mean values typical for May in Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan. High daily total values for FRP, which uses remotely sensed observations of thermal radiative energy, and is used in CAMS to estimate pollutant emissions related to burning vegetation, are also apparent for the Northwest Territories, Ontario, and Nova Scotia, particularly at the end of the month.
The CAMS data put carbon emissions from wildfires in Alberta at around 17 megatonnes so far this year, which means that the province’s carbon emission are already the highest since the extreme fires experienced in May 2019, in which over 880,000 hectares were burned and the resulting smoke was transported across the Atlantic Ocean. Carbon emissions for Saskatchewan, British Colombia, Ontario, Northwest Territories and Nova Scotia are also already at record or near-record levels.
CAMS Analysis Organic Matter Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm for the 1-31 May 2023 period.
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Significant wildfire activity across Russia
Eurasia has also seen some significant wildfire activity in April and May, which has continued into May. CAMS FRP data show active fires burning in a band stretching from Russia’s Chelyabinsk region across Omsk and Novosibirsk regions to Primorye in the Far East. Kazakhstan and Mongolia also saw significant wildfire activity in the first half of the month. The CAMS FRP data show that the wildfire activity continued into the first week of May, with major wildfires burning in southern central Russia, along the border with Kazakhstan, and in Amur region further to the east.
According to Russia’s Aerial Forest Protection Service, as of 31 May firefighters were battling 55 active fires in 11 Russian regions, affecting a total area of almost 5,592 hectares. Sverdlovsk Region is currently the worst affected – with 19 active fires over 3,808 hectares. According to a representative from Russia’s Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology, a second wave of wildfires is expected in July-August due to the warm and dry weather conditions.
GFAS v1.2 active fire locations and fire radiative power over central Eurasia during May 2023. Source: CAMS
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GFAS v1.2 daily total fire radiative power for Tyumen, Omsk and Novosibirsk regions in Russia (top) and total estimated April-May carbon emissions for the same three regions (bottom). Source: CAMS
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CAMS FRP data indicate an increase in wildfire activity in Russia’s Omsk Region in the second half of April, before dipping slightly in the last week of April only to surge again in the first half of May. Tyumen Region also witnessed a surge in wildfire activity in the first half of May, with FRP values significantly higher than average for the period. In Novosibirsk Region too, FRP values were higher than average for the month, with particularly high values witnessed around 10 May. The CAMS data show daily total FRP for Russia as a whole to be above the 2003-2022 mean for several days in early May, before falling to below average for the second half of the month.
Wildfire carbon emissions for Tyumen Region in Aril-May were the third highest in the past 20 years at around 19 megatonnes, while emissions in Omsk Region were the fifth highest since 2003, and in Novosibirsk Region – seventh highest. Wildfire carbon emissions for Russia as a whole in April and May are at a similar level to the last five years and are overall lower than average for the past 20 years, as can be seen in the chart below.
GFAS v1.2 daily total fire radiative power for April-May (left) and total estimated April-May carbon emissions (right) for Russia. Source: CAMS.
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Quality-assured wildfire data
CAMS provides regular up-to-date information on the location, intensity and estimated emissions of wildfires around the world, as well as tracking smoke transport and composition. To learn more about CAMS monitoring of wildfires and smoke, visit our page on Global fire monitoring.
*CAMS and C3S are implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission