Dozens of wildfires raging through central and southern Chile in recent days have left at least 26 people dead and nearly 1,000 injured, with more than 270,000 hectares of territory affected, according to local officials. Dry weather, high temperatures, and strong winds in the area are exacerbating the situation. There has been a corresponding spike in emissions into the atmosphere, with a large smoke plume being transported out across the Pacific Ocean. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (*CAMS) has been monitoring the situation.

Chile’s National Forestry Corporation reported that, as of Monday morning, there were 275 active fires, of which 69 were currently being combatted. Chilean President Gabriel Boric has issued emergency declarations for the largely rural southern regions of Ñuble, Bio-Bío and La Araucanía.

In terms of burnt area, the recent wildfires are only surpassed by the 2017 forest fire season, when over 3,000 fires resulted in more than 575,000 hectares burnt. CAMS has been assessing the situation and the CAMS Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) has been providing data on the distribution, daily total intensity and corresponding emissions to the atmosphere of the observed fire activity. CAMS has also been monitoring the evolution and transport of the large smoke plumes originating from the fires.

“Drier and hotter conditions in the region have increased the risk of vegetation fires, which has resulted in a large number of fast-developing large-scale fires. The high intensity of these fires is reflected in the emissions and the size of the smoke plumes being transported out to the Pacific that we have been monitoring,” said CAMS Senior Scientist Mark Parrington.

CAMS monitoring of wildfire carbon emissions shows emissions in January-February this year of almost 4 megatonnes of carbon, which means that 2023 already has the second highest level of wildfire carbon emissions in Chile for these months in the past 20 years. Emissions in the first two months of the year are almost half the level of the record high emissions in 2017, which were due to the devastating fires in January of that year.

In the regions of Bio-Bío, La Araucanía and Ñuble, carbon emissions in January-February amounted to over 2.5 megatonnes, 1.4 megatonnes, and 0.7 megatonnes respectively – the highest emission levels in the past 20 years for all three regions. Emissions from Bio-Bío and La Araucanía are more than double their previous record levels (set in 2017 in Bio-Bío and 2008 in La Araucanía).

CAMS monitoring of total fire radiative power (FRP), which uses satellite observation of active fires to estimate the emissions of smoke pollutants from fires, indicates a spike in FRP between 4-6 February, well above the mean of the 2003-2022 data and corresponding to the situation on the ground. The map of fire danger forecast produced by the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast valid for 7 February, published on the Global Wildfire Information System, shows extreme fire danger across a large area of Chile and Argentina. Satellite observations, from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, during the prior seven days show the fires in southern and central Chile occurring in areas with the highest fire risk.

The CAMS total aerosol optical depth 5-day forecast initialized on 7 February shows prevailing winds carrying a large smoke plume northwestwards from the affected area out into the Pacific Ocean, with a smaller plume being transported across central Argentina and out into the South Atlantic.

As the wildfire situation in the region develops, CAMS will continue to monitor the situation and will update this report accordingly.

CAMS provides regular up-to-date information on the location, intensity and estimated emissions of wildfires around the world, as well as tracking smoke transport and composition. To learn more about CAMS monitoring of wildfires and smoke, visit our page on Global fire monitoring.

*CAMS is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission.