Under hot and dry conditions, on 7 November, wildfire activity suddenly increased in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has been closely monitoring the intensity of these fires since they flared up, as well as the resulting emission of atmospheric pollutants.
CAMS, which is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the EU, provides daily estimates of global fire emissions through its Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), which combines observations of fire radiative power from sensors on satellites with numerical models.
Compared to the previous 16 years, fire activity in Australia as a whole has generally been relatively low since the beginning of September. But data provided by CAMS shows that the fire activity has increased significantly over the last week, especially in New South Wales, which has experienced unprecedented fires in parts of the state that have not experienced fire like this before.
“We have been closely monitoring the intensity of the fires and the smoke they emit,” explains CAMS Senior Scientist Mark Parrington. “When comparing the results with the average of the previous 16-years in our GFAS dataset, they are very unusual in number and intensity, especially in the northeastern parts of New South Wales.”
Satellites have observed smoke from the fires spreading across the South Pacific Ocean. By combining observations of these emissions with models of the atmosphere, CAMS has been predicting the movement of smoke for the days ahead. The smoke emitted by fires is made up of trace gases and particulate matter, which cause air quality issues and can affect the health of those living in the area. New South Wales has now declared a state of emergency and hundreds of schools have been closed due to fire conditions and hazardous levels of air pollution.
CAMS provides the means for people to check the air quality in their area. All data is open for anybody to use, and the charts available on the CAMS website can be used to track fires and related pollution. Fire activity and emissions are also included in various freely-available applications, including data visualisation app Windy. CAMS provides input for the active fires map, as well as four-day forecasts of surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and aerosol optical depth.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) – also implemented by ECMWF – recently published its October 2019 hydrological summary, showing precipitation, humidity and soil moisture. The maps show that Australia was much drier than usual this October compared to the 1981–2010 average. C3S has also observed that the country has also been less humid than average over the last year, with drier soil particularly in the west; this is consistent with long-term drought conditions that contribute to the current fire activity.
