More alarm bells for Biden as largest poll of Latino voters conducted since the start of the campaign reveals third party candidate could lead to disaster

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As President Joe Biden and Donald Trump face off again in the presidential election come November, the support of Latino voters are going to be crucial in what is expected to be an extremely tight rematch. But it could be third party candidates, not Trump, who have have major implications for Biden in battleground states. 

The poll commissioned by the grassroots political organization Voto Latino showed the shifted interest in voting third party and lack of enthusiasm for Biden within Latino communities in some all-important states should set off alarm bells for Democrats.

The poll of likely Hispanic voters in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas and Pennsylvania, is the largest poll of Latinos in swing states in the 2024 election cycle to date.

It found Biden had strong support among 40 percent of Latinos while Trump had strong support among 28 percent of Latinos. But eighteen percent of Latino voters were leaning toward a third party.

‘Eighteen percent is a remarkably high level, particularly five plus months out from the election,’ said Ameer Patel, Managing Director of Voto Latino.

It comes as Robert Kennedy Jr. is working to get on the November ballot in multiple battleground states as an Independent.

Both President Biden and Donald Trump are attempting to woo Latino voters whose support will be crucial in close battleground states come November

A poll of likely Latino voters in Arizona , North Carolina , Nevada , Texas and Pennsylvania

Robert Kennedy Jr. speaking in Phoenix, AZ in December 2020. New polling commissioned by Voto Latino found third party candidates pose a greater threat to Biden's margins among Latino voters than Trump

What Patel found ‘shocking’ is among those leaning third party, just 7 percent were Republican while 33 percent were registered Democrats.

A combined 59 percent were under the age of 40, a red flag as young voters are expected to play a pivotal role in who is elected president and tend to lean more toward Democrats.

Another concern for Democrats: 62 percent of those leaning third party were Latinas.

‘For comparison, in 2020 in Arizona, three percent of all Latinas… that voted in the general election voted for a third party candidate,’ Patel said.

‘If RFK Jr. is on the ballot, and these support levels stay at this point, even if they drop by half to let’s say 8 percentage points or nine percentage points, that is three folds the level that it was in 2020,’ he explained.

At the same time, there is a fourteen point enthusiasm gap when it comes to Republican and Democrat Latino voters. 74 percent of Republicans reported being enthusiastic while only 60 percent of Democrats did. Just 37 percent of people ages 29 and younger were enthusiastic.

Democrats have a fourteen point enthusiasm gap with Latino voters, poll finds

Patel pointed out in places like Arizona and Nevada in 2020, 18 to 29-year-olds made up the largest share of the Latino electorate.

The data shows if Biden does not cut into the 18 percent voting third party by November, he does not come near his support among Hispanics in any of the five swing states.

In 2020, the elections in multiple battleground states including Arizona and Nevada were decided in Biden’s favor by less than 50,000 votes.

Biden greeting supporters during a campaign event at a Mexican restaurant in Phoenix, AZ on March 19, 2024

When it comes to the issues - the majority of Hispanic voters polled said inflation and the cost of living was the most important, followed by the economy and jobs.

But when it came to those issues, voters were split down the middle on who would do a better job addressing inflation, and Trump had a slight advantage overall when it came to improving the economy and creating fair wage jobs.

For Latino voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 but said they were not in 2024, 63 percent identified inflation and the cost of living as their key issue.

Another issue identified by Biden 2020 voters who would be looking elsewhere in 2024 was the war in Gaza, but it was still nowhere near to the same degree as economic issues. 25 percent identified the ongoing war as most important.

The polling comes out one day after Trump’s campaign announced the launch of Latino Americans for Trump as the ex-president looks to woo minority voters ahead of the November election. At the same time, the former president traveled to Las Vegas for a rally where voters were spotted holding Latinos for Trump signs.

‘It’s a slight change in messaging because at this point in Biden’s America, all Americans are suffering with the same thing, high inflation, soaring prices,’ said campaign adviser Danielle Alvarez speaking to reporters ahead of Trump’s remarks. She said Trump is seeing support from the Hispanic community as a result.

Donald Trump looks out at supporters holding 'Latino Americans for Trump' signs at his rally in Las Vegas on June 9, 2024

Multiple Latinos in Nevada told DailyMail that they agree it feels like there has been growing support in their communities for Trump. 

While not included in the polling, Latinos in Florida in the 2022 midterms helped reelection Republican Governor Ron DeSantis. 

But while the polling found Trump has support among 55 percent of hispanic men, overall he is underwater in terms of favorability among Latino voters, even more so than Biden. The bigger threat to the margins is the third party vote.

‘There are all these stories about how Trump is gaining and the Latino community is shifting toward him. I think in our poll, that is less the case and more so at least among soft supporters is that Biden is underperforming, and he’s losing support to third parties or to the undecided count,’ Patel said.

But he warned Democrats still need to keep an eye on Trump’s gains among Latino men. Trump also did better on handling the border in the polling as securing the border was ranked fourth among most important issues for Latino voters.

Where Democrats may have a window to lure Latino voters back into the fold by November is that while a larger percentage are leaning toward a vote for Kennedy, he remains relatively unknown.

Kennedy received less unfavorable rating among Latino voters in the polling. But it found less voters knew enough about him to weigh in unlike Biden or Trump

In the poll, less voters knew enough about him to share whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view, despite the Kennedy name. It could give Democrats an opening to further define him as a candidate.

At the same time, abortion rights was ranked the third most important issue among Latino voters. Biden had a nearly thirty point advantage on Trump when it came to who Latino voters believed would do a better job on the issue.