England are set to land a plum Round of 16 tie against one of the best third-placed teams at Euro 2024 - providing they beat both the 'ITV curse' and Slovenia.
The Three Lions head into Tuesday night's Group C finale in first position after banking four points. And despite criticism following underwhelming performances against Serbia and Denmark, Gareth Southgate 's men have already qualified for the knockout stage of the tournament after results went their way on Monday.
Victory in Cologne against Slovenia will mean England will face a third-placed team in the next round. However, if England finish second then they could end up playing host nation Germany in their next match. And to make matters worse, Tuesday night's big game will take place on ITV - a broadcaster that England have traditionally struggled on in previous major tournaments.
Per The Sun, since 1998, England have won just seven of the 30 matches which have been broadcast on ITV. That figure consists of 13 draws and 10 defeats, the latter of which includes the quarter-final loss against France at the 2022 World Cup.
By contrast, England have a fine record on the BBC, who co-cover the tournament. The Three Lions have won 20 of their 29 matches which have been shown on the BBC across the same period, including the 1-0 win over Serbia earlier this month.
The Rest is Entertainment podcast shed some light on how the BBC and ITV share coverage of the tournament in the build-up to the Slovenia match, explaining that both take it in turns to select matches.
Co-host Marina Hyde explained: "ITV and the BBC share out games at the Euros and, in fact, all tournaments. They take it in turns to pick matches but this time around it was ITV's turn to pick first. You can choose anything right from the start, it's like a draft. But they thought, 'Okay, we'll do semi-final pick one because we think England will do well in this tournament', so when the semi-final line-up is decided, ITV will get to choose the first choice of that, hopefully with England in it.
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"So, the BBC then counter with their next pick - and this is what happened in the room, we're giving you the inside track here - they countered with quarter-final pick one. So then ITV are like, 'Right, what's next?'. Honestly it's like game theory. So then [ITV] go, 'We're going to do the Round of 16 first pick because that's not a risky choice, England's group is manageable and they're going to get out it so this is worth it'.
"The BBC then go, right, England v Serbia, that is 8pm Sunday night, maximum possible audience, we'll have that. ITV next, England v Slovenia. That's also a peak time game but that's the third match in the group, so if England have already qualified it could be dead. It could really be a knockout if England haven't done well so really they've got to have that. Then the BBC took the one remaining England game, that was 5pm on a Thursday.
"But then the big dilemma: ITV could have had the second semi-final at this stage and are sitting their thinking, 'What do we do', because the BBC will be sort of shut out for the final week of the tournament until the actual final. But if England have already gone then the interest level is gone. So ITV then said we'll have game one of the whole tournament, which is Germany against Scotland, a home nation, which is peak time on a Friday night. That paid off brilliantly for them because so many people watched that."
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