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Daniel Fetner
Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.
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Daniel Ingevaldson
Ross Haleliuk posted the fantastic article below. This is the world where I live day-to-day. At TechOperators, we invest mostly in early-stage cyber, but we do things a little differently, and we believe there are ways to invest successfully outside of pure Power Law math. The article argues that many security problems are too small for VC. I agree. I often try to convince bootstrapped founders not to raise venture because doing so can turn a successful, slow-growing bootstrapped company into a failed venture-backed company because, despite a large infusion of capital, it couldn't double every year. VC is not monolithic--not by stage, strategy, or style. Venture is often equated with "Tier 1 Venture". Ross argues that VC is not always great for early-stage cyber--and he is right. Bootstrapping AND VC work when incentives are aligned. Does it work for an early-stage VC with a <$200M fund to invest in several early companies at reasonable valuations, setting up the conditions for reasonable exits that pay off for both investors and founders? Yes. Does it work for $800M funds investing in seed stage at $100M+ valuations? Well, that depends! Power law says it does (for VC), but the unfortunate externality is that these rounds destroy companies and founder equity more often than not. There is a role for patient capital in this ecosystem to fuel successful companies that retain exit optionality as they scale--driving exit value for both founders and investors.
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Shawn Xu
About 8 weeks ago, I had a conversation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Charles Yang, who spends a lot of time thinking about the government's AI roadmap, that went something like this: "What if we brought together all the very best AI engineers in the country to think through how we can work alongside government to accelerate the scale up of clean energy?" That conversation inspired Hacking for Clean Energy, a 24-hour hackathon Lowercarbon Capital co-organized with our partners OpenAI and Crusoe (a portfolio company tackling decarbonized cloud compute). It came together super quickly, and we couldn't be happier with the outcome. Over the course of an all-nighter, ~100 participants shipped 15 products. Our top winners took home $25K+ in cash and compute prizes: ⚡ Verdigris: An AI-powered tool leveraging the Eli Technologies API to connect eligible households with electrification financing ⚡ Daylight: An AI voice assistant trained on data from our national labs to help energy developers identify key decision makers for new projects. We set out to help gifted technical leaders in Silicon Valley ramp up on the energy transition. Product managers, data scientists, and engineers traveled from all over the country to compete (some even flew in from outside the US)! Floored by the amount of interest on this topic. At Lowercarbon, we're on the lookout for the next legendary founder. They might just come out of an event like this. A decade ago, I ran another hackathon that Charm Industrial's Peter Reinhardt won (for a blast from the past, see here, unfortunately the original Mashable article link is dead - https://shorturl.at/6U6uP). We need y'all to work on this space, and we can't wait to see what you come up with next now that you're armed with more context, more data, and more friends in the space. Until next year! P.S. Huge shout out to the MVPs Elena Mosse and Kenny Hoang on our team for picking the hackers, curating the prompts, and dealing with the million details that need to go right for something like this to take off. And to James Donovan + Rohan Nuttall from OpenAI and Sara Axelrod from Crusoe, we couldn't have made this happen without you! #startups #tech #venturecapital #energy #energytech #energytransition #climate #climatetech #hackathon #AI
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Santhosh Devati
I echo and a firm believer of Laurel Mintz take on Diversity - "Diversity in thought, diversity in boards, diversity in public companies, diversity in all of this is what creates a better culture. It's what creates better outcomes, both financially and emotionally. Ultimately, it's just a better approach to creating a more well-rounded society.” #ImpactInvesting #VentureCapital #PurposeDrivenInvestors
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Jeremy Utley
What do you do when a radical new technology puts your main product right in the crosshairs of disruption? Listen to David Okuniev — co-founder of Typeform | Ask awesomely — discuss the challenges of innovation within existing structures. David shared a game-changing insight: Radical innovation is really, really difficult to do inside your own product. He emphasized the need to break free from the constraints of familiarity and embrace change from outside the box. Henrik Werdelin and I have both seen our fair share of this in our respective careers. What struck us most was how David leveraged structure to overcome the innovator’s dilemma. By creating a culture of experimentation and providing space for bold ideas, he propelled Typeform beyond incremental improvements. What other hacks have you seen or employed to help your organization overcome the innovator’s dilemma? Share your stories below! 👇 And if you want to dive deeper into our conversation, click the link in the comments to catch the full podcast episode!
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Sara Garces Roselli
Participating in Cohort 14 of the VC Lab has been an energizing experience so far. I am learning so much about the ins and outs of being an emerging fund manager and how to succeed in this space. Today they hosted a panel for Women in VC that provided some real world advice from some fantastic panelists. The curriculum is rigorous for sure, but rewarding. If you are curious about why this is such an exciting area check out this article. #venturecapital #vc #investing https://lnkd.in/gMMM_mwp
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Suman Singh
UNLOCKING THE SECREATS OF THE GLOBAL VC ECOSYSTEM : A SUMMIT FOR LIMITED PARTNERS AND VENTURE CAPITALISTS TO THE GLOBAL VC's ECOSYSTEM SUMMIT -------------- 💰💵 Check 1st post in features section in my profile 💵💰 -------------- #VCEcosystemSummit #VentureCapital #LimitedPartners #Investment #PortfolioManagement #GrowthStrategy #IndustryLeaders #Networking #Collaboration #Innovation #Startup #Entrepreneurship #Funding #Investor #LP #GP #VC #PrivateEquity #HedgeFund #AssetManagement #WealthManagement #FinancialServices #InvestmentBanking #CapitalMarkets #BusinessGrowth #Scaling #Expansion #Disruption #Volatility #RiskManagement #Resilience #Sustainability #ESG #ImpactInvesting #Diversity #Inclusion #Equity #Equality #WomenInVC #WomenInFinance #MenInVC #MenInFinance #VentureCapitalist #InvestmentBanker #FinancialAnalyst #PortfolioManager #InvestmentManager #AssetManager #WealthManager #FinancialPlanner #InvestmentAdvisor #VCFirm #StartupAccelerator #Incubator #CoworkingSpace #EntrepreneurialEcosystem #InnovationHub #BusinessNetworking #ProfessionalDevelopment #Leadership #Mentorship #CareerGrowth #IndustryTrends #MarketInsights #FinancialRegulations #InvestmentStrategy #RiskAssessment #DueDiligence #DealMaking #MandA #IPO #PrivatePlacement #HedgeFundManager #AssetAllocator #FamilyOffice #SovereignWealthFund #PensionFund #EndowmentFund #VentureCapitalInvesting #StartupFunding #GrowthCapital #ExpansionCapital #Buyout #Recapitalization #Restructuring #Turnaround #DistressedInvesting #SpecialSituations #EventDriven #CreditInvesting #DebtFinancing #EquityInvesting #MezzanineFinancing #GrowthEquity #VentureDebt #SeedFunding #SeriesA #SeriesB #SeriesC #IPOPrep #PreIPO #PostIPO #PrivateCompany #PublicCompany #MicroVC #NanoVC #SeedStage #EarlyStage #GrowthStage #LateStage #PrivateEquityFund #HedgeFundManager #InvestmentPortfolio #RiskManagementStrategy #InvestmentResearch #FinancialPlanning #WealthCreation #CapitalGrowth #InvestmentOpportunities #BusinessExpansion #MarketTrends #IndustryInsights #FinancialInnovation #InvestmentInnovation #VCDeals #StartupSuccess #InvestmentStrategy #PortfolioDiversification #InvestmentRisk #InvestmentReturn #InvestmentGrowth #InvestmentIncome #InvestmentManagement #InvestmentConsulting #PrivateEquityInvesting #HedgeFundInvesting #VentureCapitalInvesting #AngelInvesting #ImpactInvesting #SustainableInvesting #ESGInvesting #ResponsibleInvesting #InvestmentFirms #InvestmentCompanies #InvestmentPartners #InvestmentNetwork #InvestmentCommunity #InvestmentEvents #InvestmentConferences #InvestmentSummit #InvestmentForum #InvestmentRoundtable #StartupInvesting #EarlyStageInvesting #GrowthStageInvesting #LateStageInvesting #PrivateEquityFirms #HedgeFundManagers #VentureCapitalFirms #AngelGroups #ImpactInvestors
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Latif Peracha
It was a real honor to interview Brad Burnham co-founder of Union Square Ventures and partner Placeholder on the history of hype cycles in technology and the value they bring to capital and market formation. Brad has had tremendous success across decades investing at the frontier - when it was the frontier/ before it was obvious. Crypto is still the underdog and his views on the opportunity and its nuances are prescient. Specifically it is both a technical and financial innovation which can lead to excess volatility and a unique muscle as it relates to being a venture manager. But the returns are real. And the innovation is real despite some of the the common narratives. No one debates the breakthrough applications in AI at M13 we have been very active. It is also very clear that incumbents have massive data and distribution advantages which can make it challenging to find the right pockets to invest. AI is on its own hype cycle and as always the best teams (typically with contrarian takes) win. Very exciting times to be a venture investor.
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Santi Subotovsky
Thrilled to announce the launch of our inaugural edition of Beyond Benchmarks at Emergence Capital. This comprehensive report dives deep into the metrics and trends shaping the early-stage enterprise cloud market. A huge thank you to our VC partners and contributors for making this possible! Here's a sneak peek of our findings: --> 60% of companies have already integrated GenAI into their service offerings, with another 20% planning to do so this year. --> While most companies use OpenAI as their primary LLM, many are experimenting with multiple models. We’re seeing a trend toward intelligently routing GenAI inference requests based on cost, performance, and security. --> Companies that have implemented GenAI are showing promising results, with a 7% higher NDR compared to those that haven’t. Beyond Benchmarks goes further with more GenAI trends, insights on the current fundraising environment, and key performance metrics. Our goal is to provide founders and their teams with valuable benchmarks to help them make better-informed decisions. At Emergence Capital, we're committed to helping founders build iconic companies. Dive into the full report here: https://lnkd.in/g6bnvAZM
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Trevor Mason
Dan Primack had some pointed criticism for #VC yesterday in his Axios Pro Rata newsletter (a daily must read IMO 😤). In short, the model doesn't work if it can't produce exits for LPs. Don't blame public markets (which are at all-time highs) for the lack of liquidity either. 📈 💸 Instead, this is a "liquidity drought of your making" where "...swinging for the fences on every pitch, rather than taking the single or double that's available" is the only way out when you invest at "sky high valuations." 😰 "A whopping 37% of "unicorns" are being held for at least nine years by VC funds, including 13% that are past the 12-year mark." 😳 ⌛ Is he right? Is VC at a dire inflection point? Or is Primack prematurely hitting the panic button? 🚨 https://lnkd.in/dts92pXr
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Yohei Nakajima
Had a great discussion with Nathan Lands and Matt Wolfe on The Next Wave about where we are today with autonomous agents, and more :) https://lnkd.in/eijGB_P6 Episode 7: Why and how, Yohei Nakajim built a baby AGI. Matt Wolfe (https://x.com/mreflow) and Nathan Lands (https://x.com/NathanLands) sit down with Yohei Nakajima (https://lnkd.in/en_mQf9D), a venture capitalist and serial AI tool builder. In this episode, Yohei dives deep into the transformative potential of AI in automating tedious tasks, revolutionizing venture capital, and redefining job markets. He shares insights on the practical applications of AI for small and medium businesses, discusses the branding of "web three," and explores the development and impact of autonomous agents like his Baby Agi project. Whether you're interested in tech innovation, business adaptability, or AI ethics, this conversation covers it all. — Show Notes: (00:00) VC turned coder using AI for prototyping. (03:38) Community support led to modding and improvements to Baby AGI. (08:16) Learning curve in using autonomous agents. (11:31) AI agents offer guided next step suggestions. (15:04) Developers emphasize handcrafted agents over autonomous agents. (17:10) Balancing niche and broad market expectations in tech. (20:12) Massive models trained on millions of people. (22:52) Childhood fascination leads to pondering internet immortality. (27:24) Venture capital, AI, SaaS, future-proofing investment criteria. (30:03) Interest in lowering company startup costs and VC innovation. (33:34) Try using free version of chats first.
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Michael Tolo
Want a front-row seat to the frontier of tech? We’ve got the role (or two) for you! We’re expanding our frontier-tech team at Blackbird by hiring a Frontier Tech Investments Associate and Foundry Fellows! Got questions? We've got answers... 1️⃣ What are the roles? 🧪 Associate = a full-time VC investment gig in our Blackbird Investments team, working directly with me. We’re looking for someone with a science and/or engineering background and more curiosity than they can handle. You’ll grow your own investment brand and practice, support our portfolio founders, and will help build Foundry, our early-stage frontier-tech accelerator. ✨ Foundry Fellow = a casual/contract gig in our Blackbird Investments team, ~15h per week for 3 months. The Fellowship is ideal for PhD students and ECRs who want to learn more about startups and VC. You’ll go deep on emerging areas relevant to your expertise (or curiosity!), get a front-row seat to groundbreaking companies in those areas, build out your non-academic network, and develop a solid writing practice. 2️⃣ Why are you hiring? We love frontier tech, and we’re ready to grow our team. 3️⃣ Wow, it’s so great that you’re starting to look at deep tech! Look, we get it: we don’t make a lot of noise about our frontier tech investing. Buuuut we’ve been deep-tech investors since we backed Tim Kentley-Klay to found Zoox back in 2014—we’ve been on incredible journeys with PsiQuantum (building the world's first utility-scale quantum computer right here in Australia!), Inventia Life Science (transforming drug discovery with high-fidelity cell models), Remedy Robotics (surgical robots for remote endovascular procedures), Opto Biosystems (minimally-invasive neural implants to treat cancer), and more. We believe that frontier technologies, and great frontier-tech investing, will be part of the solutions to the greatest problems humanity faces today. 4️⃣ When do applications close? May 31st at 11:59pm AEST. 5️⃣ I have more questions! I’m sure you do! Clare Birch and I are hosting an AMA to answer any and all questions about these roles. Want to know what a week in the life of our team looks like? What’s keeping us up at night? What our ideal candidate looks like? Come along and find out - registration link in the comments 👇 Apply for these roles: Associate - https://lnkd.in/gCfj4EUJ Foundry Fellowships - https://lnkd.in/gj6ATZVZ If you know anyone that we should meet, send me their details! Cameron Elise Ben Andrew Robin Joseph Adelaide James Olivia Lucinda Raghav Jesse Christie Mohamed Tom Amee Pablo Haya Loong Hon Joshua Benjamin Megan Harry Denzil Matthew Diana Daniel Tom Deanna Justin Amar Lilly Stone Thomas
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Mika Romanoff
Lesson for first time founders. "As much as they want to be your friends, the fund comes first (as it should)." As hard as it sounds the VC business evolves around a fight for survival first and being friends as a distant second. #openvc #investmentmanagers #assetmanagers #fundmanagers #venturecapital #assetallocation #limitedpartners #returnoninvestment #pitchdeck #fundraising #vc #vcrelationships
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Jukka Alanen
"Rebellion looks beyond conventional AI systems." This is a well-written article by Venture Capital Journal (by David Bogoslaw) about our Rebellion Ventures announcement last week. It reviews artificial super capability (ASC) and our debut fund focused on autonomous operations and AI agents, leveraging a community of 70+ unicorn founders, operators, and industry experts in AI and automation. Check out VCJ's article below - worth taking a look. https://lnkd.in/g6HDmZ8P
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Santhosh Devati
Have a story to tell... Use Narratize AI Co-Authoring platform to tell your stories in an impactful manner. Katie Trauth Taylor, PhD and the entire team is committed to helping you in becoming amazing storytellers. Check out their impressive work at https://lnkd.in/gnNYHSSX Start telling your stories with Narratize AI as your co-author. #generativeai #storytelling #innovation #aicoauthoring #innovators #researchers #impactstories #startups #problemsolvers #AI #AIStartup
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Lizzie Francis
Earlier this year, we surveyed our fellow Los Angeles-based GPs to get a pulse check on the LA venture ecosystem. Here’s what we found: 💗 Deal flow is healthy, and most LA venture investors (68%) are seeing the same or more deal flow YoY. ✈ LA investors are spending time in a variety of markets, with NYC, Austin, and SF following closely on LA’s heels. 🔍 Innovation is concentrated in AI and machine learning, space, and commerce. 💸 Funding is happening, but it’s barbell-shaped, with deals concentrated at the early and late stages. Funding post-Series A has been challenging. 🚩 LA is differentiated, but not without its challenges. Key difficulties include not attracting enough AI talent (despite having the largest number of engineers graduating from our region over any other in the United States); talent relocated to more tax-friendly or less expensive locations; and the great SoCal / NoCal divide 🙏 Thank you to all our many respondents! I’m so glad to be part of a venture ecosystem that includes great minds like Anna Barber, Brent Murri, W. Christine Choi, Sarah Tomolonius, Rob Smith, Win Chevapravatdumrong, John Tabis, Jill Royster, Jesse Draper, Ashley Balla, Britt Danneman, Tram Lai, Carmen Palafox, Elaine Russell, Deborah Benton Amanda Schutzbank, Brian Lee, Petra Griffith, Minnie Ingersoll, Shamin Walsh, Gabe Greenbaum...wow, this list could go on forever...plus too many other exceptional humans to name. You know who you are! Explore our findings more deeply with our survey dashboard: https://bit.ly/3JsaLaB
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Mike Krenn
118 VCs (one hundred eighteen!) are gathering in San Diego next week - to meet with 30 SD startups. But it's so MUCH bigger than just those 30 co's. It brings VCs back - when they see quality companies. It helps those who are next-in-line and adjacent. It enables us to send deal flow all year 'round. It attracts talent and other companies. It inspires entrepreneurship. Connect is working for SD. Together, we're building the best damn innovation ecosystem on the planet. Year over year. Five.Ten.Thirty.
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Farhad Alessandro Mohammadi
There's been a lot of discussion lately about whether Venture Studios are poised to replace Venture Capital, sparked by John Cowan's insightful article: The Rise of Venture Studios and the Extinction of Venture Capital as We Know It. VCs argue that their model remains irreplaceable, while Venture Studios believes they are the future of startup investment. However, the truth lies somewhere in between. While startup studios produce impressive results, they can't replace VCs due to their limited production capacity. Studios don't generate enough deal flow to match the scale of traditional venture capital. However, VCs must evolve, especially in the seed investment stage. The industry could benefit from more Operational VCs who offer hands-on support to startups, enhancing their growth and success rates. Accelerators can also adapt by shifting towards a "venture building program" model, focusing on guiding startups to successful exits rather than merely providing services. Studios, on their part, can contribute by scaling their models to boost production and impact. For instance, Hexa is currently implementing a "build your venture studio" program to amplify their influence at scale. I foresee experienced studios adopting similar approaches or developing open frameworks for venture building. At Mamazen we plan to integrate this strategy by 2026, combining both traditional and innovative methods to foster startup growth. In conclusion, I believe VCs are still going towards extinction. Instead, they will likely evolve and adapt to the changing landscape. The future of startup investment will likely blend traditional venture capital and innovative venture studio models.
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Liz Walsh
Can poop save the planet? 🤔 Well, in Silicon Valley, it's not just a punchline—it's a multimillion-dollar climate solution. Big players are teaming up with startup Vaulted Deep, paying $58.3 million, to pump organic waste underground. The deal was brokered by Frontier Climate, a coalition launched in 2022 by Stripe, Alphabet, Meta, Shopify, and McKinsey Sustainability. But why are tech giants getting their hands dirty with sewage and manure? Vaulted Deep's technology, rooted in decades-old methods used for oil and gas fracking cleanup, gives them an edge. But instead of sludge, they're tackling carbon-rich waste, aiming to sequester CO2 underground. They plan to sequester 152,480 tons of carbon dioxide by 2027 as part of the deal (That equates to 36,000 gas cars off the road for a year). Is this greenwashing, or a silver bullet? Critics warn of cost, the need for rigorous carbon accounting, and potential environmental trade-offs - i.e. emission prevention versus carbon removal. #decarbonization
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