Metaculus

We recently partnered with Effective Institutions Project to co-host a workshop with Metaculus, Omidyar Network and P150 on #AI and #philanthropy, convening a diverse group of AI funders, professional forecasters and experts in technology and policy to explore the future impact of AI technologies on society. The workshop fostered collaboration among various stakeholders to devise strategies that incorporate forecasting, quantitative analysis, and collaborative research, aimed at guiding AI toward a positive future. We are excited to to build on these conversations in future partnerships and programs.

We're making Metaculus open source: Soon you'll be able to audit, critique, and build on our code. We want to live in a better epistemic environment, and we can get there faster working together: https://lnkd.in/dGWSdGkb What resources and documentation would make contributing easier? Let us know, and we'll create them.

We're excited to welcome Vehbi Deger Turan as our new CEO! Deger previously led the AI Objectives Institute and is deeply committed to Metaculus's vision of more effective collective reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. Here, Gaia Dempsey shares on her three and a half years leading Metaculus and on her new role helping to further Metaculus's mission:

The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest is live! Register and forecast to explore potential opportunities with Bridgewater and compete for $25,000 in prizes. 🔭 Get started: https://lnkd.in/eqF3emKs

Can you predict the future? Let’s find out. Bridgewater’s mission is to build the best understanding of economies and markets, and Metaculus seeks to be the “Wikipedia of the future.” Together, we have teamed up on a competition to find the next best forecasters—those who can understand the world in terms of data and research and use that to make informed predictions about what comes next. It starts on April 16th, there is $25k in prize money on the line, and it’s geared towards anyone interested in exploring potential career opportunities at Bridgewater. Don’t miss out: https://lnkd.in/eqF3emKs

Share the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest with talented US undergraduates in your network: Compete for $25,000 in prizes and potential career opportunities at a premier asset management firm by forecasting on topics like SpaceX launches and Bitcoin prices. Learn more and register now. Contest starts April 16th: https://lnkd.in/eqF3emKs

In partnership with Metaculus, Bridgewater is sponsoring an exciting new competition where participants are invited to showcase their forecasting abilities, explore potential early career opportunities at Bridgewater, and qualify for $25k in prize money. Join the contest now and learn more about our shared mission of using data and research to understand the world around us: https://lnkd.in/eqF3emKs

I had a super interesting conversation with Metaculus Project Director Tom Liptay on how to measure forecasting skill and why it’s important to keep score when forecasting. #forecasting

In 2024: 🤖 Will OpenAI reveal more about Q*? 🇺🇸 Will Biden debate Trump? 🚀 Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? Forecast these and other events that will shape the year ahead in the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest! Scott Alexander, writer of the popular blog Astral Codex Ten, has invited Metaculus to host this year's forecasting competition. Start predicting, hone your skills, and follow current events through a forecasting lens. $2.5k in prizes. Learn more and get started: https://lnkd.in/d9B4ZZeP

Explore state-by-state forecasts with our 2024 US presidential election map: https://lnkd.in/gDTBhknN