Darran Lawless

CAPPED GROUND RENTS: Whilst the #leaseholdreformbill failed to bring a cap on ground rents PAYABLE, which has been widely reported by the media, what many will not see is that in the valuation for a #leaseextension or #enfranchisement there is a notional cap if the ground rent exceeds 0.1% of the freehold vacant possession value of the property. It appears if it is reviewed, and then increases above the notional 0.1%, then it will be capped at this level from that period, ignoring any growth in value of the property over that period. This is not applicable where no premium (price) was paid for the lease or; A lower premium (price) was paid at the start of the lease, to reflect a higher ground rent payable. #cappedgroundrents #leaseholdreformbill

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Property and elections - my fervent wish every time a manifesto comes out is that there are no mentions of anything to do with commercial property! However, as we discuss in the Property Patter podcast the big question is around growth....

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Our Build to Rent submission calls for greater accountability, oversight and meaningful delivery of precious rental supply. What will happen to a tenant's privacy rights under a proptech orientated model? The government does not appear to understand the market power they are handing corporate landlords. Prioritise community led housing instead!

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Many thanks to ACES (Association of Chief Estates Surveyors and Property Managers in the Public Sector) for supporting the research, in particular Sara Cameron. It seems very timely to address this issue given challenges with recruitment and retention faced by many public sector organisations. There is also evidence of demand for 'specialist' skillsets such as decarbonisation, PFI contract management, project/programme management and community wealth building - but it doesn't make sense for every organisation to acquire dedicated resources. Procuring external advisors may be the answer but do you get people who understand the dynamics of the public sector? Please share your thoughts to fuel the necessary debate!

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What impact will the general election have on house prices? The pending UK general election has generated political uncertainty, which has impacted Knight Frank's property market forecasts. Specifically, they have adjusted their near-term outlook for prime central London (PCL), expecting a 1% price decline this year instead of a 1% rise initially predicted in January. This adjustment follows hesitancy in the market due to proposed reforms of non-dom rules by both the Conservative and Labour parties. However, over the next five years, Knight Frank anticipates a cumulative growth of 16.4% in PCL housing prices. For other areas such as Greater London, prime outer London (POL), and the prime country markets, Knight Frank's property price forecasts remain unchanged, being less vulnerable to political fluctuations and closely tied to economic cycles. In the broader economic context, April's inflation data has dampened hopes for a rate cut in June, affecting swap rates and the mortgage market. Despite current challenges, demand for housing is expected to rise if mortgage rates decrease in the latter half of the year, as seen earlier when rates temporarily dropped to sub-4%. In the rental market, growth forecasts for 2024 in prime London have been reduced due to a faster-than-expected normalisation of supply and demand, now predicting a 2% increase in PCL rents, down from 5.5% forecasted in January. Rental growth remains strong due to a structural undersupply of rental housing, a competitive job market, high immigration, and rising mortgage costs. Supply constraints, exacerbated by private landlords exiting due to higher interest rates and taxation changes, continue to limit the rental market. Consequently, Knight Frank expects tenants to rent longer, sustaining high demand despite marginal increases in build-to-rent supply. Overall, Knight Frank projects a 5-year cumulative rental growth of 20.4% across the UK, driven by these market dynamics. Wonder how accurate their forecast will be #propertymarket #election2024 https://lnkd.in/ewN98Cag

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Land: How to buy it, how to sell it, how to develop it. 📈🌱 The UK property landscape is changing – demand for properties is increasing, homes are in short supply and housing targets are not being met. Explore our latest guide, and examine the need to knows and must do’s to help you develop land smartly and effectively to create value, returns and meet the needs of the growing UK population. Download the guide: https://ow.ly/1MAW50RgWbf #land #development #property

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🚨🏠 Positive news for the housing market! Savills upgrades UK house price forecast: 2.5% growth in 2024 (revised from -3.0%), and 21.6% by 2028 (revised from 17.9%). Housing transactions to reach 1.05M in 2024 with an improved economic outlook and lower mortgage costs driving a positive forecast. North West and Yorkshire lead the 5-year capital growth forecast at 28.8% in the North West by 2028. Full article: https://lnkd.in/dUHKn3QX #BreakingNews #HousingMarket #Savills #UKProperty #Forecast

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To quote a leading UK research analyst 'there has been slow recovery for the UK housing market as it awaits political and economic clarity.’ This insight will resonate with many in the UK, but how do the Channel Island property markets compare? READ THE STORY HERE https://lnkd.in/eG8eB726 #livingroomproperty #thechannelislandsestateagent

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Reading consults on expanded HMO licensing scheme. The expanded version of the current mandatory scheme could cover HMOs with three or four occupants. Currently only those with five or more are covered. Read the full story here: https://lnkd.in/em9abpPD #hmo #propertynews #landlordnews

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Refurb, Redevelop or Dispose - self build's deteriorating fast. At the recent CIH conference in Brighton delegates discussed the merits of replacing or recycling old property stock. With many local authorities and RP’s looking to decide how best to manage these assets going forward. Conclusions drawn from a lengthy process of market influence assessments were varied and often inconclusive. But a particular point regarding the longevity of historical self builds remained outstanding; and with the increasing drive for more self-builds this is an interesting dilemma. We are told that previous self-build schemes deteriorate faster than non-self-build homes. So the decision to replace or recycle is key. And whilst this is likely to be applicable only to certain forms of construction it’s a debate worth having. What will happen to self-build homes in the future and will OSM homes deteriorate at the same pace as conventional homes. We are already seeing developers opt for custom-build delivery rather than pure self-build, for a whole multitude of logistical reasons, and perhaps this may be the route of least future issue. #newhomes #landandnewhomes #developers #developments #sussex #estateagents #commercialagents #planning #planners #architects #architecture #showhomes #land #landandnewhomesorganisation

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Nutrient neutrality….. 🏡 ❌ But could this help? See: www.nmfnorfolk.co.uk Purpose: To enable nutrient mitigation solutions to be accelerated in the Broads and Wensum catchments Nutrient mitigation projects: The team are primarily interested in sizeable and permanent solutions, which can be secured for at least 80 years. This reflects the anticipated lifespan and impact of the homes. The focus is on solutions that will provide phosphorus and nitrogen mitigation. Temporary or bridging solutions will also be considered. #sustainabilityleadership SDG 11, 13, 14 & 15 Credit: Stephen Scowen

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The best news for prime and super-prime property markets in recent weeks has been the announcement of an event that will not happen. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves said last month that Labour would not hold an emergency Budget if it won the election, instead giving the Office for Budget Responsibility time to assess the impact of its plans. Among other things, the pause would enable a conversation about the effectiveness of its proposal to raise £2.6 billion by changing the non dom rules. There are 68,800 non doms in the UK and under a fairly complex system they don’t pay tax on their non-UK income. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced an overhaul of the rules in March (https://bit.ly/3XiyjGZ) with new restrictions that included a four-year time limit. Labour countered with its own tougher measures a month later (https://bit.ly/3RnC8XP). However, after Hunt and the civil service consulted with the tax industry, the Chancellor was reportedly set to prolong the four-year period and make other tweaks to ensure that non doms didn’t leave the UK in sufficient numbers to mean the changes were counter-productive. The same civil servants are likely to relay this message to any new government and Labour may ultimately favour a more pragmatic approach if it wins power. “Having spoken to a senior Labour figure, my sense is they don’t want to scare wealthy individuals away from the UK,” said James Quarmby, a partner in the private wealth team at law firm Stephenson Harwood. “Irrespective of what politicians say during an election campaign, being in government is completely different and I expect a Labour government to proceed with caution. There will be scope to finesse the non dom legislation so that it broadly meets their campaign promises, but at the same time remains business-friendly." Until there is more clarity, demand remains relatively subdued in London’s prime postcodes.

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