Editorial: Electoral reward for a ‘giveaway’ budget is no great guarantee

If you were looking for other signs as to when the next election might be held, the amount of gold in the Government’s purse is often a good pointer as to when it is likely to reach for the starting gun.

The efficacy of it all is not really the point. It has become custom and practice. The hope of politicians that the warm fuzzy feeling people get when given “free stuff” will translate into political capital never fades. Given that the gifts being bandied about are already the property of the taxpayer to begin with, bargaining on gratitude has no sound basis.

It is a bit like coming away from a bring-and-buy sale and convincing yourself you have bagged a bargain, even though you have just paid handsomely for something you donated yourself. Nonetheless, the electoral bazaar appears to be opening for business with news that Budget 2025 is to be brought forward by a week in October.

Although new Finance Minister Jack Chambers was adamant that the shift was “absolutely not” a signal of an early outing at the polls, few believed him.

As writer Ben Okri put it: “The magician and the politician have much in common: they both have to draw our attention away from what they are really doing.”

The ability to draw on handsome exchequer returns will make it more enticing to add to the budget cornucopia

Either way, Sinn Féin finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty was having none of it, dismissing the denial as a “cock-and-bull story”. The general feeling is the timeline points to early or mid-November for an election. Events in the UK and in France present a cautionary tale about impulsively rushing to the polls. Consequences tend to be quite indifferent to our intentions, as Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron are belatedly discovering.

Strategies are valuable, but it is only results that count. And that is why Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will wish to get out of the blocks as speedily as decency permits to make optimal use of any favourable tailwinds. The ability to draw on handsome exchequer returns (published this week and showing €5.9bn) will make it more enticing to add to the budget cornucopia. Once again, multi-national profits and corporation tax receipts have powered ahead.

The concern is that the extra revenue may also turbo-charge expectations and weaken any remaining impulses towards restraint, especially with a looming election. We will have some indication as to whether the Coalition yields to such a temptation with the Summer Economic Statement that is due next week.

Despite stern warnings on the need for caution on spending, Taoiseach Simon Harris has already pledged further cost-of-living supports. But the Fiscal Advisory Council has warned of the danger of an “everything-now approach of tax cuts, increases in current spending and ramping up capital spending all at once”.

Just as there is a time for pushing limits, there is a time for slowing down.