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The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball
Written by three esteemed baseball statisticians, The Book continues where the legendary Bill James' Baseball Abstracts and Palmer and Thorn's The Hidden Game of Baseball left off more than twenty years ago. Continuing in the grand tradition of sabermetrics, the authors provide a revolutionary way to think about baseball with principles that can be applied at every level, from high school to the major leagues. Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin cover topics such as batting and pitching matchups, platooning, the benefits and risks of intentional walks and sacrifices, the legitimacy of alleged clutch hitters, and many of baseball's other theories on hitting, fielding, pitching, and even baserunning. They analyze when a strategy is a good idea and when it's a bad idea, and how to more closely watch the inside game of baseball. Whenever you hear an announcer talk about the unwritten rule or say that so-and-so is going by the book in bringing in a situational substitute, The Book reviews the facts and determines what the real case is. If you want to know what the folks in baseball should be doing, find out in The Book.
385 pages, Paperback
First published February 22, 2006
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 55 reviews
August 14, 2019
The book is so great.
May 21, 2014
Who wouldn't want to read complex statistical equations followed by charts and graphs of different run expectancies and win expectancies that tell you exactly how every pitch in baseball should play out, then followed up with a game theory analysis of the game to show why you need to vary how every pitch in baseball should play out even from what SHOULD be correct?
October 12, 2014
Baseball has had a long time to build up a substantial encyclopedia of conventional wisdom about strategy and player analysis: when to bunt, for example, or what to make of a player on a hot streak, or how to set a lineup. Sit through any broadcast for a (usually overbearing) sample of it. But most of this stuff is just anecdotal. Managers or influential writers in the past felt like they'd gained some insight, and it stuck. But the brain plays tricks on your perceptions. Maybe you saw a player only once, and he made a great play. So is he awesome or did you catch him on a good day? That's why we keep statistics. So you can look back and see what he did over time, even when you weren't watching, to remove your biases. But with enough data, you can also tease out broader trends and actually prove or disprove all that conventional wisdom. That's what The Book is all about. It's a huge deep dive into the data to see what pops out.
I loved it. I learned a ton. Some of the data is a little dry, but not usually, and anyway when you get to feeling that way, skim to that section's conclusion, helpfully set apart in a box to illustrate in plain English what The Book Says.
Absolutely required reading for baseball nerds. Highly recommended for all baseball fans, though.
I loved it. I learned a ton. Some of the data is a little dry, but not usually, and anyway when you get to feeling that way, skim to that section's conclusion, helpfully set apart in a box to illustrate in plain English what The Book Says.
Absolutely required reading for baseball nerds. Highly recommended for all baseball fans, though.
June 17, 2023
Keep in mind that this book was published over 15 years ago. Much of the analysis has been made moot secondary to rule changes. Additionally, the author only used 3-4 years of data for much of the analysis, thus many, but not all, of his conclusions were made without statistical power. In short, the methodological weaknesses make this book a pass.
December 26, 2007
as a baseball guy and a math guy, this book was GLORIOUS! The appendix of mathematical techniques used, and some descriptions why, truly puts Tom Tango in a class of his own. The stats were used well and when stats were unavailable he used simulations. And the piece de la resistance: Game Theory at the end of the book! He took into account bluffing, strategy, and how they affect the usefulness of various techniques. I could literally not ask for much more.
As a clarifier to the book, this book examines baseball strategy and situations and is not an attempt to rank or project players in any way (a la Bill James).
Absolutely wonderful! Tom Tango is great! An absolute must read for anyone who considers themselves a serious fan!
As a clarifier to the book, this book examines baseball strategy and situations and is not an attempt to rank or project players in any way (a la Bill James).
Absolutely wonderful! Tom Tango is great! An absolute must read for anyone who considers themselves a serious fan!
May 29, 2018
I haven't quite finished this one, but as I get into the later chapters, I find my interest waning. I think I will finish it, though, some day.
Part of the reason why I've had to put it down is that I started having gut-wrenching flashbacks to writing my thesis. All this talk of statistical significance, assumptions, p-values, predictive power... makes me realize that the authors probably have about as much faith in their work as I did in mine. It's a curse. The more you learn about a topic, the more you realize you don't know. So, I guess now I can set-up the perfect line-up, as long as all my batsmen are perfect spheres in a vacuum.
Part of the reason why I've had to put it down is that I started having gut-wrenching flashbacks to writing my thesis. All this talk of statistical significance, assumptions, p-values, predictive power... makes me realize that the authors probably have about as much faith in their work as I did in mine. It's a curse. The more you learn about a topic, the more you realize you don't know. So, I guess now I can set-up the perfect line-up, as long as all my batsmen are perfect spheres in a vacuum.
March 12, 2009
Bunting is almost always bad (other than from a game theory standpoint). As is stealing.
July 6, 2023
Perhaps some of you reading this book are former baseball players like me, just love baseball, or are simply interested in the world of baseball statistics and sabermetrics. This book offers a different way of approaching the sport. It is an approach that relies heavily on the statistical analysis of baseball, which has become dominant in the sport, and one that is different from the way a player or a fan approaches the game.
This book was a very tough read, but I appreciated it for what it was. Like I said, it presents a different way of thinking about the game of baseball, but ultimately leads to the same conclusions that someone who is versed in the sport would already know. Most of the book was just proving by numbers that what is already done in pro baseball is the correct approach.
What I did find fascinating, however, was the concept of batting lineup optimization. This chapter showed that there may be areas of the game where managers are not playing to their maximum efficiency. But again, for the most part, I felt that it was a restating of what is already known through statistical jargon. For example, anyone who has played or has any knowledge of baseball understands that left handed hitters perform worse against left handed pitchers. This is shown in the book statistically and is referred to as the “platoon advantage”.
I think this book would be great for anyone who is interested in learning about baseball statistical analysis. It shows interesting concepts like the batting lineup optimization mentioned above among many others that I did not mention. However, just be warned, it is a tough read.
This book was a very tough read, but I appreciated it for what it was. Like I said, it presents a different way of thinking about the game of baseball, but ultimately leads to the same conclusions that someone who is versed in the sport would already know. Most of the book was just proving by numbers that what is already done in pro baseball is the correct approach.
What I did find fascinating, however, was the concept of batting lineup optimization. This chapter showed that there may be areas of the game where managers are not playing to their maximum efficiency. But again, for the most part, I felt that it was a restating of what is already known through statistical jargon. For example, anyone who has played or has any knowledge of baseball understands that left handed hitters perform worse against left handed pitchers. This is shown in the book statistically and is referred to as the “platoon advantage”.
I think this book would be great for anyone who is interested in learning about baseball statistical analysis. It shows interesting concepts like the batting lineup optimization mentioned above among many others that I did not mention. However, just be warned, it is a tough read.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
March 9, 2017
I have some mathematical acumen and I'm a baseball fan, so based on reviews of this book, it had five stars before I open the cover. ("Open the cover" is a figure of speech. I bought the Kindle edition.)
The first chapter is an introduction and a definition of terms section. Fine. Analysis begins in chapter two. The text reads like an article from Nature or Science magazines with technical jargon in every sentence. The text is full of tables necessary to make points and are very good. Sadly, their rendering in the Kindle edition is miniscule and you have to have the patience of a saint and the manual dexterity of a concert pianist to enlarge them so that they can be read. (By the way, graphic rendition of any e-book is the responsibility of the publisher, NOT of Amazon.) So buy a print edition.
After reading the first few chapters, this began to wear on me, so my rating dropped to four stars. As I became weary of the analysis, I started skipping paragraphs and going to summary paragraphs that begin with THE BOOK SAYS. These summary paragraphs are excellent. The first few chapters are about player behavior, such as batting streaks, clutch performances, etc. and really challenged the "conventional wisdom".
The next few chapters dealt with team performance. They were much the same as the first few chapters although here THE BOOK differed with conventional wisdom less often. More great analysis, but not particularly entertaining reading. It went down to three stars.
The last few chapters dealt with the intersection of game theory and statistics, where there were fewer statistics to work with. This was done well, although the authors noted that an entire book could be written on applications of game theory alone.
As I finished reading and thought about this review I decided to give this four stars, the average of five stars for statistical analysis and three stars for literature. If that's fine with you, go out and buy the print edition of this book.
The first chapter is an introduction and a definition of terms section. Fine. Analysis begins in chapter two. The text reads like an article from Nature or Science magazines with technical jargon in every sentence. The text is full of tables necessary to make points and are very good. Sadly, their rendering in the Kindle edition is miniscule and you have to have the patience of a saint and the manual dexterity of a concert pianist to enlarge them so that they can be read. (By the way, graphic rendition of any e-book is the responsibility of the publisher, NOT of Amazon.) So buy a print edition.
After reading the first few chapters, this began to wear on me, so my rating dropped to four stars. As I became weary of the analysis, I started skipping paragraphs and going to summary paragraphs that begin with THE BOOK SAYS. These summary paragraphs are excellent. The first few chapters are about player behavior, such as batting streaks, clutch performances, etc. and really challenged the "conventional wisdom".
The next few chapters dealt with team performance. They were much the same as the first few chapters although here THE BOOK differed with conventional wisdom less often. More great analysis, but not particularly entertaining reading. It went down to three stars.
The last few chapters dealt with the intersection of game theory and statistics, where there were fewer statistics to work with. This was done well, although the authors noted that an entire book could be written on applications of game theory alone.
As I finished reading and thought about this review I decided to give this four stars, the average of five stars for statistical analysis and three stars for literature. If that's fine with you, go out and buy the print edition of this book.
September 8, 2022
Essential for anyone who wants to understand the evolution in analytics-based baseball strategy over the last couple decades. There’s plenty of math and charts, which you can skip over if you want to just read the salient points—many of which they helpfully call out so you don’t miss them—but if you want everything in depth, it’s all here, too.
This book isn’t for everyone, of course; baseball is a great game that can be fully enjoyed without delving into it as much as this book does. But for fans who can’t get enough sabermetrics, this book is the gold standard.
This book isn’t for everyone, of course; baseball is a great game that can be fully enjoyed without delving into it as much as this book does. But for fans who can’t get enough sabermetrics, this book is the gold standard.
April 8, 2024
Baseball is live action poker to Football’s physical chess, thats a crude way to put the way this book evolved my perspective on America’s past time. Insight on how probability and statistics affects managers decision on the diamond and off it. This is the book Moneyball’s nerdier brother you have a coffee with rather than a beer.
April 14, 2024
It has a good game analysis, but not apply to all players. It’s data are not clear described calculation, it gives a lot of index without context or procedure. It’s not easy to read if you are not familiar with baseball basic rules. The book is full of theories, and a lot of past playing…that nowadays can’t not be homologate to all players.
⚾️⚾️⚾️
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June 24, 2024
Probably the best book to introduce and explain some of the math behind Sabermetrics. Learning about run expectancy in the beginning of the book was instrumental to understanding numerous sabermetric concepts. Still relevant 15 years after it was published.
May 8, 2017
Not a FUN read, but any baseball stat junky is going to enjoy it. And if you coach baseball at any level, you might get a lot out of this for your team!
January 1, 2018
Essential reading for anyone who wants to learn the basics of sabermetrics and the direction of public baseball data analysis.
April 10, 2018
The book contains a lot of good information and analysis. The sheer volume of data, however, can make it a bit of a slog. The “by the book” summaries throughout help make things more digestible.
March 31, 2022
Very in depth analysis of in game decision making. Insightful and has helped change the way the game is thought about.
July 14, 2022
I mean, it's baseball and math. What's not to love?
March 4, 2023
Good book, still relevant even in 2023. Although reads heavily like a textbook at times.
March 29, 2023
Sometimes tedious or repetitive, this is still the standard for questioning conventional baseball wisdom using sabermetric practices.
July 7, 2019
Authors use high-level stats to determine optimal strategies
May 31, 2022
If you are a coach, either in real-life, tabletop, or online, this book is invaluable. Tom Tango does deep statistical analysis using real Major League Baseball data to either confirm or debunk conventional wisdom on some of the most common baseball decisions that a manager would be faced with. I'm something of a math and statistics geek, but some of the sections went too far into the weeds of explanation even for me. While those with some knowledge of standard deviations, means, and regression analysis will be able to see behind the curtain on how the conclusions are arrived at, there are great summaries throughout each section that you can skip to to get right to the answer you're looking for. I highly recommend this for anyone with an interest in baseball decision making.
February 22, 2011
One of the common phrases that we hear in baseball is that a manager was playing by “the book.” That is, the manager was doing what the unwritten rules of baseball suggest. One example at the outset illustrates: walking a batter intentionally with first base open. This book, in essence, rewrites the book.
The authors use a detailed data base (including each at bat over a period of years) and then do a statistical analysis of results. And, they argue, the unwritten book is often wrong. The first chapter lays out the logic of this book’s orientation. Many readers might find the chapter dense and too quantitative for their taste. My advice? Close the book and put it away, because the book features much statistical analysis.
To illustrate the work’s approach. . . . Here are some issues addressed: How real are batting streaks (Answer: You can’t predict how a player will do during a hot streak; there is no inherent “momentum”)? Chapter three looks at pitcher-batter confrontations. Do certain pitchers “own” batters? Do certain hitters “own” pitchers? Data analysis suggests that we overrate these ideas. We all talk about clutch hitters and clutch pitchers. Chapter 4 takes this notion on (read the book to find out what actually happens).
Chapter 5 examines how to construct a batting order; Chapter 6 examines lefty-versus righty confrontations between hitters and pitchers; Chapter 9 looks at the value and efficacy of the sacrifice bunt; and so on.
If the reader is a figure filbert and likes sabermetrics, this book will be a delight. If you are old school, not so much! But, for me, a lot of fun. . . .
The authors use a detailed data base (including each at bat over a period of years) and then do a statistical analysis of results. And, they argue, the unwritten book is often wrong. The first chapter lays out the logic of this book’s orientation. Many readers might find the chapter dense and too quantitative for their taste. My advice? Close the book and put it away, because the book features much statistical analysis.
To illustrate the work’s approach. . . . Here are some issues addressed: How real are batting streaks (Answer: You can’t predict how a player will do during a hot streak; there is no inherent “momentum”)? Chapter three looks at pitcher-batter confrontations. Do certain pitchers “own” batters? Do certain hitters “own” pitchers? Data analysis suggests that we overrate these ideas. We all talk about clutch hitters and clutch pitchers. Chapter 4 takes this notion on (read the book to find out what actually happens).
Chapter 5 examines how to construct a batting order; Chapter 6 examines lefty-versus righty confrontations between hitters and pitchers; Chapter 9 looks at the value and efficacy of the sacrifice bunt; and so on.
If the reader is a figure filbert and likes sabermetrics, this book will be a delight. If you are old school, not so much! But, for me, a lot of fun. . . .
April 3, 2013
For Sabremetric aficionados only. The collaborators are statisticians in the Bill James mold and they do their work well. Usually, that makes for deadening reading--I'll admit to glazing over the tables increasingly in the second half of the book. Most of the take-home messages are predictable for those who follow the field. 1) Most of the sportscaster wisdom about the relationship between hot streaks and past match-ups and future performance is simply illusion. The only real indicator of future performance is the player's ability level. 2) "Conventional sabremetric wisdom" about the counter productivity of sac bunts and steals is right on a general level, but needs to be put in very specific contexts, some of which justify the strategies.
The one chapter I really learned something new from was the one on how to put together a batting order. You do want the high OBP guy leading off, but forget the standard approach to the number two slot--that's where you want one of your two best remaining hitters (the other one goes in the clean-up slot). It was a slight surprise to see that you probably want a stronger hitter at 5 than at 3. Once you pass 5, just place the hitters in descending order of quality, no matter the rest of their profile.
Got a laugh out of the way they handled Earl Weaver's bizarre decision to put Mark Belanger--who you'd basically bat 12th if you could--in the number two slot. Terrible strategy (although Belanger did hit better at 2 than at 8 or 9, he was till awful). But, as they say, Weaver's response is that he can't hear the criticism because he's holding the World Series rings over his ears.
The one chapter I really learned something new from was the one on how to put together a batting order. You do want the high OBP guy leading off, but forget the standard approach to the number two slot--that's where you want one of your two best remaining hitters (the other one goes in the clean-up slot). It was a slight surprise to see that you probably want a stronger hitter at 5 than at 3. Once you pass 5, just place the hitters in descending order of quality, no matter the rest of their profile.
Got a laugh out of the way they handled Earl Weaver's bizarre decision to put Mark Belanger--who you'd basically bat 12th if you could--in the number two slot. Terrible strategy (although Belanger did hit better at 2 than at 8 or 9, he was till awful). But, as they say, Weaver's response is that he can't hear the criticism because he's holding the World Series rings over his ears.
August 30, 2016
Pretty dry and dense, but fascinating if you are into baseball stats and sabermetrics.
For those who can make it through, the reward is a deeper understanding of the game and a more satisfying spectating experience.
The book tackled some great questions I had as a baseball fan - like the best situations for the steal and the bunt, how well batter/pitcher history predicts future face-offs, how real/useful hot/cold streaks are, how to optimize batting lineup and how much affect it has on wins, quantifying how a disruptive baserunner affects the defense (and batter), etc.
The answers to these questions are approached systematically and scientifically; and Tom Tango can easily be contacted for questions from his blog.
The final chapter on game theory and baseball is unique and missing from many other sabr resources (many situations do not have a always/never rule, and both teams should always be adjusting and mixing their strategies); while the appendix delving into the underlying statistical methods requires some supplementary material for full comprehension for those with further interest in the math (probably small minority of readers).
And although all this insight and analysis is applied to "just a game," the takeaways regarding predictive value of historical data, and statistical significance etc. are useful in many other areas (say, pay/evaluation for doctors or medical institutions, instead of baseball players).
This book presents an excellent example of the power and shortcomings of applied statistics in general.
For those who can make it through, the reward is a deeper understanding of the game and a more satisfying spectating experience.
The book tackled some great questions I had as a baseball fan - like the best situations for the steal and the bunt, how well batter/pitcher history predicts future face-offs, how real/useful hot/cold streaks are, how to optimize batting lineup and how much affect it has on wins, quantifying how a disruptive baserunner affects the defense (and batter), etc.
The answers to these questions are approached systematically and scientifically; and Tom Tango can easily be contacted for questions from his blog.
The final chapter on game theory and baseball is unique and missing from many other sabr resources (many situations do not have a always/never rule, and both teams should always be adjusting and mixing their strategies); while the appendix delving into the underlying statistical methods requires some supplementary material for full comprehension for those with further interest in the math (probably small minority of readers).
And although all this insight and analysis is applied to "just a game," the takeaways regarding predictive value of historical data, and statistical significance etc. are useful in many other areas (say, pay/evaluation for doctors or medical institutions, instead of baseball players).
This book presents an excellent example of the power and shortcomings of applied statistics in general.
July 28, 2013
Good for what it is: an attempt to use rigorous mathematical modelling to determine the most statistically sound plays in baseball. It attempts to answer questions like when are the best and worst times to steal, hit and run, sac bunt, etc. It goes into some depth about how best to create a batting order and when to use a relief pitcher for maximum effect. There is even a chapter on if there is such a thing as being "clutch" and how long a hot/cold streak lasts.
But, while I don't question the math, I do question their sample size. Most of the data used is from the 1999-2004 seasons, which seems small for deriving general advice based on statistics. That the data used is from smack in the middle of the steroid era makes me a bit skeptical of some of their conclusions. Furthermore, some of the techniques used are less rigorous than others. For example, when trying to determine whether a batter "owns" a pitcher (and vice versa), the author uses the concept of "families" of players, the qualifications of which were never really explained all that well and the relationships seemed to be a little arbitrary. That good math gets piled on top of that to prove a point seems a little bit like building a house atop a sand dune.
Like I said in the beginning of this, it is good but not great. There are useful pieces of information to be gleaned here. But, other books have covered this side of baseball better, in my opinion. The Hidden Game of Baseball for instance.
But, while I don't question the math, I do question their sample size. Most of the data used is from the 1999-2004 seasons, which seems small for deriving general advice based on statistics. That the data used is from smack in the middle of the steroid era makes me a bit skeptical of some of their conclusions. Furthermore, some of the techniques used are less rigorous than others. For example, when trying to determine whether a batter "owns" a pitcher (and vice versa), the author uses the concept of "families" of players, the qualifications of which were never really explained all that well and the relationships seemed to be a little arbitrary. That good math gets piled on top of that to prove a point seems a little bit like building a house atop a sand dune.
Like I said in the beginning of this, it is good but not great. There are useful pieces of information to be gleaned here. But, other books have covered this side of baseball better, in my opinion. The Hidden Game of Baseball for instance.
June 7, 2016
this is an interesting book about optimal strategy in baseball. It's certainly not for everyone, as it requires a non-trivial familiarity with statistics and an extreme interest not just in baseball but in baseball analytics.
But for those with such interests, this book presents interesting research in very readable form, particularly on the high value of platoons (given that pinch-hitters perform much worse than on days when they start), the optimal use of relievers (way more than they're used now, and based on situational leverage rather than inning), and game theory (that bunting, if not "worth it" in a static sense, could incentivize the defense to play sub-optimally close, and improve your hitting performance in the aggregate).
Recommended to baseball statheads, not to others.
But for those with such interests, this book presents interesting research in very readable form, particularly on the high value of platoons (given that pinch-hitters perform much worse than on days when they start), the optimal use of relievers (way more than they're used now, and based on situational leverage rather than inning), and game theory (that bunting, if not "worth it" in a static sense, could incentivize the defense to play sub-optimally close, and improve your hitting performance in the aggregate).
Recommended to baseball statheads, not to others.
October 10, 2007
A review and statistical analysis of strategies in baseball. The authors pick through baseball ideas very methodically, and the book's organization is its biggest virtue. It really steps you carefully through each consideration and checks each possibility. The best sections are the chapters on bunting and intentional walks. Unfortunately the thoroughness is done up to a fault; the writing style gets a little repetitive and could really have used some editorial work. There are also some methodology question marks - the authors sometimes use arbitrary thresholds and splits that seem reasonable enough but beg the question, "Why this way instead of that way?" Not for beginners to the subject of statistical sports analysis, even if it purports to be aiming for the general public.
July 5, 2009
It's a little dry at times, zooming through some of the math with the assumption that the reader's pretty able to follow without much explanation (this is often true), but it's insightful. Of special value is the application of game theory to typical SABR research. Largely because of this aspect, the book frequently refutes not only conventional wisdom (though less often that you might expect), but also "conventional sabermetric wisdom." The book gives adequate credit to managers for doing their job properly in instances where SABR people might disagree.
Worth it for the sections on batting order optimization, sacrifice bunting (which involves far more nuance and consideration than I've seen elsewhere) and game theory.
Worth it for the sections on batting order optimization, sacrifice bunting (which involves far more nuance and consideration than I've seen elsewhere) and game theory.
April 5, 2012
Great, great stuff. You know how baseball guys claim to "play the percentages" or operate "by the book" (often a justification for a tactical decision that didn't work out)? Well, this IS The Book. The authors have looked at statistics for all sorts of situations, and analyzed what the correct tactic is in those situations. It is packed with data and analysis, but also helpful summaries that allow you to skip through some of the gory statistical calculations. Should I bunt here? Should I leave the lefty in for one more batter? She would have a platoon in left field this season? The authors can't tell you what will work every time, but they've identified what the most successful tactics are. Anyone who enjoys thinking about baseball strategy must read this book. Very insightful.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 55 reviews