Phenomenal book. I love Nate Silver's work and have thoroughly enjoyed what he did at Baseball Prospectus and FiveThirtyEight.com. In this book, SilvePhenomenal book. I love Nate Silver's work and have thoroughly enjoyed what he did at Baseball Prospectus and FiveThirtyEight.com. In this book, Silver does an excellent job examining what it takes to make a good prediction and what fields have done better at it than others (usually because we either have more/better data or we understand the theory underlying the numbers).
Silver's measured approach to prediction and the confidence that can be placed in a prediction may not be headline worthy but he is much more concerned with being correct (in a probabilistic sense) than being newsworthy. That being said, I'm sure having such good political predictions helped his book sales quite a bit.
For those in academia I think you'll appreciate his reasonably rigorous approach including his desire to incorporate qualitative information in addition to quantitative. He also annotates pretty heavily which is great to see although I never confirmed the legitimacy of any of the notes so he could have been citing Garfield comics for all I know....more
This book held some mathematically rudimentary ideas but it's sad how poorly they are understood by most people (I guess Americans specifically but I This book held some mathematically rudimentary ideas but it's sad how poorly they are understood by most people (I guess Americans specifically but I bet that extends to most people).
Even as a math major I found myself thinking, "Yeah, he's right. I probably wouldn't have noticed that or done the math in my head if left to my own devices."
So it is a valuable book but I think it can be boring and belaboring at times. It's still worth a read to realize how statistics can, are, or could be improving our lives if we just look at them and interpret them correctly....more
This book had its moments. It definitely had an important historical story to tell. At times, though I found myself thinking that this is just a good This book had its moments. It definitely had an important historical story to tell. At times, though I found myself thinking that this is just a good story you hear in a museum or a history class.
That is not to downplay the importance of John Harrison's clock but just to say that it's a good story with some intrigue but I feel like I could've gotten the gist of the story much more quickly and not have lost that much.
Interesting, but a bit long maybe for anyone who isn't a nautical or clock making junkie....more
This book was ok. I think it will be most useful as a reference tool.
For anyone who reads about baseball statistics and Sabermetrics, whether it be frThis book was ok. I think it will be most useful as a reference tool.
For anyone who reads about baseball statistics and Sabermetrics, whether it be from Bill James, Pete Palmer, Baseball Prospectus or anyone else won't really find any new ideas here but it is a great how-to guide.
Adler basically gives you the steps and the code to create a robust baseball database and gives you shows you some useful things to do with it so that you can go off and use it in any way you would like.
But at the end of the day, it's not a leisure read, it's a programmer's reference tool....more
Taleb makes some good points in his book (namely that many are infatuated with the bell curve and apply in places it doesn't belong) but he comes off Taleb makes some good points in his book (namely that many are infatuated with the bell curve and apply in places it doesn't belong) but he comes off as overly preachy and snobbish.
I agree that the bell curve is applied too often in social situations so that these disciplines can seem more like the "hard" sciences (ie more legitimate) but Taleb often comes off as single minded in the opposite direction (even though he maintains that he's not). I like his use of the power law and fractals but too often his argument is on the verge of saying something like "these outcomes are so unpredictable (even though I can give you examples of where they happen) that I can't prove my theory beyond anecdote therefore you can't disprove me." I would've liked to see more rigor and, frankly, a better attempt at some sort of proof (or more thorough disproof of the Gaussian method).
I agree with many of his points but anecdotes and, in the words of one of my math professors, "it is obvious" are not sufficient proof of anything....more
as a baseball guy and a math guy, this book was GLORIOUS! The appendix of mathematical techniques used, and some descriptions why, truly puts Tom Tangas a baseball guy and a math guy, this book was GLORIOUS! The appendix of mathematical techniques used, and some descriptions why, truly puts Tom Tango in a class of his own. The stats were used well and when stats were unavailable he used simulations. And the piece de la resistance: Game Theory at the end of the book! He took into account bluffing, strategy, and how they affect the usefulness of various techniques. I could literally not ask for much more.
As a clarifier to the book, this book examines baseball strategy and situations and is not an attempt to rank or project players in any way (a la Bill James).
Absolutely wonderful! Tom Tango is great! An absolute must read for anyone who considers themselves a serious fan!...more
this is an essential to any dedicated fan who loves baseball and statistics. Errors and fielding percentage are from the stone age and now Zone Ratingthis is an essential to any dedicated fan who loves baseball and statistics. Errors and fielding percentage are from the stone age and now Zone Rating and Range Factor are old news because they've been improved upon by John Dewan and Bill James and the new plus/minus system demonstrates even further how far dedicated baseball men are willing to go to understand fielding.
Play by play analysis of every fielding play using 260 vectors on the field and split into three categories of how hard the hit is and 4 types of hits? Yes please!...more
Loading...
