What next for France as hard-left seizes victory? YEARS of political paralysis, with Macron a lame duck until he stands down... all of which could BOOST Le Pen's chances of presidential win in 2027
- Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) suffered shock defeat in yesterday's election
- But experts say she is now unburdened to make a bid for the presidency in 2027
Last night's tumultuous parliamentary elections in France saw President Emmanuel Macron and his centrist alliance achieve one key goal - preventing the hard-right from taking power.
For weeks it looked as though the party of his arch-nemesis Marine Le Pen would storm the polls, the only question being whether the National Rally (RN) would win with an absolute majority.
But the hard-right matriarch was humbled by the French electorate yesterday who instead gifted victory to the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, led by the France Unbowed (LFI) party's Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Now though, with the overwhelming majority of parliamentary seats split fairly evenly between three factions, France's politics is set to descend into chaos.
Many of the key parties are bitterly opposed - for example, Macron and Melenchon have already ruled out negotiating with one another's parties, as many centrists see the radical left LFI as being just as extreme as the RN.
And even if elements of the NFP alliance hash out some kind of deal and form a coalition government, the left-wing bloc is unlikely to be able to pass any of its key proposals if centrists and members of the RN vote against them.
With Macron's presidency coming to an end in 2027, three years of political paralysis in France could well give Le Pen all the ammunition needed to fight her way to the top.
France's hard-right matriarch Marine Le Pen was humbled by the French electorate yesterday - but analysts say she is now unburdened by political responsibility and can prepare a bid for the presidency in 2027
Jordan Bardella, President of the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally - RN) party, leaves the stage after his speech following partial results in the second round of the early French parliamentary elections in Paris, France, July 7, 2024
French CRS riot police run past burning bicycles during clashes with demonstrators following partial results in the second round of the early French parliamentary elections, at the Place de la Republique in Paris, France, July 7, 2024
French riot police stand in position near burning bicycles during clashes with demonstrators following partial results in the second round of the early French parliamentary elections, at the Place de la Republique in Paris, France, July 7, 2024
Bicycles burn during tensions near Republique plaza in Paris following the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, 2024
Emmanuel Macron avoided that which he feared the most in France's stunning parliamentary elections yesterday as Marine Le Pen's hard-right National Rally failed to scoop an absolute majority, instead suffering a shock defeat
Jean-Luc Melenchon leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) gestures as he speaks after the announcement of the results of the second round of the legislative elections in Paris, France, 07 July 2024
French political scientist Nonna Mayer, whose research focuses on far-right movements in France and Europe, told BBC Radio 4 this morning that although RN did not achieve the result it desired, it is in a better position than ever before.
'It's not a total defeat (for the RN). They still have the highest number of seats they ever had with 143,' Mayer said.
'The good thing for them is that it seemed they arrived unprepared. The decision of Macron with these snap elections took everybody by surprise... (the RN) now have three years to prepare for the next presidential election.'
Indeed, when Macron initially called the snap vote in early June after his centrist party suffered a heavy defeat to the RN in European parliamentary elections, many analysts warned that Le Pen's outfit was not ready to campaign on such short notice.
Though Le Pen and her hotshot 28-year-old party president Jordan Bardella tasted unexpected defeat yesterday, experts pointed out that Le Pen is now free to prepare and campaign for the 2027 presidency unburdened by responsibility for running the country.
'(The RN) will not be forced to try to govern and will thus avoid any responsibility for what happens in France during the next few years,' Douglas Webber, Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the INSEAD school, told Euronews.
'As they will not be able to be blamed for what happens in the next few years, they will have a good chance of winning the next presidential elections, all the more so because this election result will produce a great deal of political uncertainty in France.'
This notion is not lost on Le Pen, nor Bardella.
In the wake of yesterday's defeat, Le Pen hailed the 'rising tide' of support for her party across France and was clear on her intentions to push for the presidency in 2027.
'It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed,' she declared.
Bardella meanwhile expressed fury at last night's results, dubbing the local electoral pacts that saw the left and centrists join forces to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote as an 'alliance of dishonour'.
He said it had thrown France 'into the arms of Jean-Luc Melenchon's extreme left' and left the nation divided.
Armin Steinbach, European economist and professor at Business School HEC Paris, appeared to agree.
'The country is more divided than ever. Centre parties have lost compared to the last election in 2022. Extreme parties, from the left and right, have gained. The country is polarised.'
He added: 'A deadlock is the most likely outcome because of the lack of majority in parliament. A quick solution within days is unlikely.
'France has no political culture to make coalitions and compromises, like Germany or Italy. That is why it feels like a crisis for the French.'
In the wake of yesterday's defeat, Le Pen hailed the 'rising tide' of support for her party across France and was clear on her intentions to push for the presidency in 2027. 'It did not rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, consequently, our victory has only been delayed,' she declared
National Rally Parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen speaks to the press and supporters following her party's defeat in the French parliamentary elections on July 7, 2024 in Paris, France
National Rally supporters react following the party's defeat in the French parliamentary elections on July 7, 2024 in Paris, France
Anti riot police officers received a molotov cocktail during a demonstration following the announcement of the first results of the second round of France's crunch legislative elections in Nantes, western France on July 7, 2024
Participants gather during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris, France on July 7, 2024
People gather in front of 'Le Monument a la Republique' statue during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Republique Square in Paris on July 7, 2024
(L-R) Leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) Jean-Luc Melenchon, LFI President Manuel Bompard and newly re-elected LFI Deputy Daniele Obono react during a speech after the announcement of the results of the second round of the legislative elections in Paris, France, 07 July 2024
Leaders from the NFP left-wing alliance met overnight for their first talks on how to proceed following their unexpected election victory yesterday.
But they gave little sense of direction in media interviews this morning - perhaps a sign of things to come.
'According to the logic of our institutions, Emmanuel Macron should today officially invite the New Popular Front to nominate a prime minister,' said Green leader Marine Tondelier, one of a number of NFP figures seen as potential candidates for the post.
Tondelier said on France Inter radio the prime minister could be someone from the hard-left France Unbowed party, the Greens or the Socialists, the three largest parties in the alliance.
Olivier Faure, the Socialist leader, said on France Info radio that he expected the parties to agree on a plan this week, but sidestepped a question on whether the NFP would be prepared to negotiate a deal with Macron's centrist camp.
Raphael Glucksmann, a prominent moderate who led the leftist ticket in last month's European elections, said on Sunday that a hung parliament required openness for dialogue.
But firebrand LFI leader Melenchon - one of the most divisive figures in French politics - has explicitly ruled out any deal with Macron's centrists, and on Monday his ally Manuel Bompard sounded equally uncompromising.
'The president must appoint as prime minister someone from the New Popular Front to implement the NFP's programme, the whole programme and nothing but the programme,' he said on France 2 television.
Challenged on how that would be possible without an absolute majority, Bompard refused to engage with the question, insisting that as the NFP had come first, it should govern and shrugging off the idea of negotiating with anyone else.
However, there is little chance that any of the left-wing bloc's key proposals, which include raising the minimum wage, reversing Macron's pension reform and capping the prices of key goods, would pass a parliamentary vote without some kind of agreement with lawmakers from outside the bloc.
(From left to right) Mathilde Panot, Manuel Bompard, Jean-Luc Melenchon and Daniele Obono seen on stage at the headquarters of La France Insoumise after the results of the second round of the legislative elections
French MP of left wing party La France Insoumise (LFI) Manuel Bompard (2nd R) speaks next to (from L) Bastien Lachaud, Mathilde Panot and Daniele Obono
Anti-riot police officers detain a demonstrator during a gathering for the election night following the second round results of France's legislative election at Republique Square in Paris on the night of July 8, 2024
A crowd of demonstrators gathered on the Republic square to celebrate the victory of the new popular front. Participants gathered during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024
Founder of left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI) Jean-Luc Melenchon reacts during the election night of left-wing party La France Insoumise (LFI) following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at La Rotonde Stalingrad in Paris on July 7, 2024
Some prominent centrist figures, including Edouard Philippe, a former prime minister under Macron, said they were ready to work on a pact to ensure a stable government, but were not prepared to work with France Unbowed, a force seen by many French centrists as just as extremist as the RN.
Yael Braun-Pivet, a lawmaker from Macron's party who was the National Assembly leader before the election, said French political culture would have to evolve, becoming less antagonistic and more cooperative across party lines.
'The message I'm hearing from voters is 'no one has an absolute majority, so you have to work together to find solutions to our problems',' she said on France 2 television.
The euro slipped on Monday by as much as 0.4% as investors grappled with the uncertainty in Paris.
'There's really going to be a vacuum when it comes to France's legislative ability,' said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe in London.
Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said there was 'no obvious governing majority' in the new parliament.
'It may take many weeks to resolve the muddle while the present government manages current business.'
