Hurricane outlook for South Carolina, North Carolina

WELCOME BACK. NOW TO THE IMPORTANT PART OF THE KEY OF THE MATTER. HERE IS WHAT WE EXPECT THIS HURRICANE SEASON. WE’VE BEEN PORING OVER THE DATA, AND ONE OF THE MOST GLARING THINGS THAT ARE STANDING OUT TO US RIGHT NOW IS JUST HOW ABOVE NORMAL THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE. WHEN YOU KIND OF LOOK AT THE OCEAN CONTENT RIGHT HERE, THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION, WE’RE TALKING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TYPICAL FOR AUGUST. SO THIS IS FUEL FOR STORMS. AND NOT ONLY DOES THAT ALLOW FOR POSSIBLY SOME EARLY DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALSO ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THESE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY COOKING RIGHT NOW, TEMPERATURE WISE. NOW LET ME SHOW YOU WHEN WE TYPICALLY WILL SEE ACTIVITY START TO BREW. NOW, JUNE AND JULY TECHNICALLY IS HURRICANE SEASON, BUT IT ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT FIVE AND 7% OF NAMED SYSTEMS. YOU GO TOWARD AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER. THAT’S THE BULK OF HURRICANE SEASON WHEN YOU TYPICALLY GET YOUR MOST NAMED SYSTEMS. IF YOU WANT SOME EASIER MATH LIKE I USUALLY LIKE SEEING IT LAID OUT ANOTHER WAY. YOU TAKE A TYPICAL YEAR, AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER NORMALLY ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT NINE STORMS WHERE JUNE AND JULY ARE ABOUT ONE OR SO, BUT WITH US HAVING AN UNUSUALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE RIGHT NOW, IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO GET SOME EARLIER DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE NORMALLY CALMER MONTHS. NOW, THE NINO FACTOR IS A BIG, IMPORTANT THING THAT WE LOOK AT WHEN IT COMES TO WINTER STORM FORECASTING OR HURRICANE SEASON FORECASTING. AND SIMPLY PUT, WHEN YOU HAVE A STRONG EL NINO, THE JET STREAM IS ACTIVE HERE. THAT CAN TEND TO SHRED APART OR AT LEAST DISTURB HURRICANES, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY’RE IN THEIR INFANCY. WAY OUT HERE IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS YEAR. UNFORTUNATELY, WE DO NOT HAVE THE NINO FACTOR. IT IS IN FACT A LA NINA YEAR THAT’S DEVELOPING OUR LAST EL NINO WAS 2014, 2023. LA NINA WAS A SETUP THAT WE HAD KIND OF IN PLACE 2017 THROUGH 2022. ALMOST EACH OF THOSE YEARS HAD RECORD BREAKING SEASONS. SO LA NINA IS JUST ANOTHER, UH, INGREDIENT, SO TO SPEAK, FOR WHAT COULD BE AN ACTIVE YEAR. SO OUR HURRICANE FORECAST OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE THIS. AS FAR AS AVERAGE IS 14, THAT’D BE A NORMAL YEAR. WE’LL FORGET FORECASTING 21 NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, POSSIBLY OUT OF THOSE NAMED STORMS, TEN OF THEM COULD BE NAMED. AND SEVEN WOULD BE NORMAL OUT OF THEM. MAJOR HURRICANES. NOW, THE INGREDIENT THAT PLAYS INTO THIS IS JUST HOW UNUSUALLY WARM THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS. IT’S BASICALLY FUEL. IT’S LIKE HAVING GASOLINE RIGHT THERE BY A FIRE. YOU ADD THAT TOGETHER AND BOY, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD REALLY BECOME STRONG. THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER THERE. SO THAT’S JUST ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS THAT WE HAVE. WHEN YOU BREAK IT DOWN, DATA WISE. NOW THE COLLEGE OF COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY DID SOME EXTENSIVE RESEARCH. NOW A NORMAL YEAR WOULD BRING IN A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF RISK TO THE CAROLINA COAST. NOW, THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE NAMED STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA IS UP ALMOST 19% COMPARED TO A NORMAL YEAR, PLUS 17% IN NORTH CAROLINA. HOW ABOUT A HURRICANE? AT LEAST ONE HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL THERE? GOING WITH A 44% CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING THIS SEASON IN SOUTH CAROLINA, THAT’S UP 15% FROM NORMAL. THAT’S KIND OF THE KEY FACTOR THAT I LOOK AT THERE. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE MAJOR HURRICANE, THAT’S UP 6% COMPARED TO NORMAL. SO YES, THE RISK IS THERE AT LEAST AT A HIGHER RISK THIS YEAR OF A HURRICANE STRIKING LAND. BUT ALSO IT BEING A STRONG HURRICANE, SAHARAN DUST IS A BIG WILDCARD THAT WE NEED TO LOOK OUT FOR. IN THIS CASE. IF YOU GET A LOT OF SAHARAN DUST AT ANY GIVEN TIME, EVEN IF IT’S ACTIVE, IT’S LIKE PUTTING A BLANKET ON A FIRE. SOMETIMES IT CAN REALLY SQUASH THINGS BEFORE THEY EVEN GET GOING, AND WE’LL BE WATCHING THAT. USUALLY WHEN IT COMES TO TRACKING SAHARAN DUST, YOU GET A LEAD TIME OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 WEEKS, SO WE CAN SEE IF THAT’S COMING IN AND WE’LL LET YOU KNOW WHEN THAT HAPPENS. NOW, A REMINDER THAT OUR WEATHER TEAM IS ALWAYS TRACKING OUR FORECAST ON THE WYFF NEWS FOUR MOBILE APP. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD IT FOR FREE. MY FAMILY HAS IT. YOU CAN KEEP TABS ON HURRICANE TRACKS AND OTHER SEVERE WEATHER 24 OVER SEVEN NOW. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TONIGHT FOR OUR FORECASTING OUR FUTURE HURRICANE OUTLOOK. KNOW THAT OUR WEATHER TEAM WILL KEEP YOU UP TO DATE. ALL HURRICANE SEASON LONG AS STORMS DEVEL