Unsurprisingly in the wake of England’s back-from-the-dead victory over Slovakia in the Uefa European Football Championship, football analogies proliferated this week in relation to the general election. Rishi Sunak, the prime minister and leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, was pinning his hopes on an injury-time comeback. “It’s not over until it’s over,” he tweeted. Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, was more concise. “Never in doubt” was his verdict. As Labour heads towards a victory that may eclipse even Tony Blair’s landslide of 1997, inflicting upon the Tories a defeat of unprecedented scale, Sir Keir’s rare display of hubris in what has been for him a campaign marked by extreme — sometimes crippling — caution appears justified.
Labour’s “Ming vase” is about to be carried over the finishing line. There have been no disasters in Labour’s campaign, no fatal gaffes; simply the turgid restatement of a few quite trivial spending commitments overshadowed by promises not to raise the four biggest taxes. Labour has bored its way to power. There is no visionary prospectus for the coming decade. Instead it has relied upon the failings of the Conservatives, exhausted by 14 years of government, to do the heavy lifting. Napoleon advised his generals: “Gentlemen, when your enemy is executing a false movement, never interrupt him.” Sir Keir consistently adhered to that dictum, even at the cost of appearing tongue-tied during televised debates with Mr Sunak. In political terms the Labour leader wisely presented the smallest possible target to his opponent. He was the opposite of inspirational, appearing hesitant and evasive under fire, but throughout it all he kept hold of that precious piece of porcelain.
Yet, successful though his risk-averse strategy was, Sir Keir has left the British people with little clue as to his intentions in government. Rarely has a new administration entered office with so little known about the concrete actions it will take in its first term. Questions over how to reconcile the freezing of taxes and reduction of the national debt by the end of the parliament while increasing or maintaining spending on public services battered by austerity have been repeatedly evaded.
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Questions abound. Where is Labour’s policy on social care? Is it determined to stick to its doctrinaire and wholly unobtainable 2030 target for a green energy grid and the phasing out of petrol vehicles? And how can Sir Keir’s promise that there will be no return to austerity be squared with his promise not to raise income tax and national insurance rates, value-added tax and corporation tax? Indeed any taxes on “working people”? Labour’s alibi during the campaign has been its dash for growth. But even if this bears fruit it will take years to translate into bigger tax receipts and debt falling as a proportion of expanding GDP.
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That these pressing questions have not gained more purchase with the electorate testifies to a general desire to see the Conservatives gone. After 14 years in power there is much baggage: no fewer than five prime ministers, four of whom arrived in office not as the result of a general election but due to the downfall of their predecessor. An era that began with austerity ended with the highest tax burden since the Second World War. The national debt is at a 60-year high and both wages and productivity have stagnated. Factionalism, first over Brexit and then over illegal migration, has combined with sleaze, most notably Partygate. The Tories correctly point to the terrible hand they were dealt with the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine energy shock. But there were many unforced errors, Liz Truss’s mercifully brief tenure in No 10 being the biggest one of all.
Democracy requires change. Over time governments atrophy. Parties too long in power sermonise to the public instead of listening to it. They become flabby and incompetent. The biggest argument for Labour is that it brings fresh energy, and hopefully integrity, to the fight. But to what end?
There are promising and not so promising indications. Sir Keir is clearly a sensible man, flexible and pragmatic, a patriot committed to his country’s defence at a time of increasing geopolitical instability. He rescued his party from its slide into irrelevance under Jeremy Corbyn and expunged the stain of antisemitism. His methodical marginalisation of Labour’s left was efficient and ruthless. The steel he displayed as head of the Crown Prosecution Service in cracking down on rioters could be a good rehearsal for fixing our creaking criminal justice system. Together with his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, he appears determined to kickstart the economy by ripping up the planning system to get Britain building. A huge expansion in housebuilding cannot come soon enough. A lot hangs on Ms Reeves, who declares herself a friend of fiscal prudence and business.
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The election campaign was mired in claim and counter-claim about tax and spend. There was not nearly enough discussion about wealth creation, the vital importance of growing sunrise industries centred on artificial intelligence and life sciences, or how to reconcile the desire for green power with the need to keep the lights on. Ms Reeves must keep wealth creation front and centre of her economic policy. Wes Streeting, the designated health secretary, has also displayed a willingness to reject Labour orthodoxy and seek new solutions to the NHS’s forever crisis that do not rely solely on ever more public money, including a greater role for the private sector. Whether or not this strategy survives first contact with the health unions is open to question.
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There are, however, warning signs. For the unions Labour’s return to power will be the firing of a starting gun for higher pay demands. The government’s mettle will be tested immediately by the junior doctors’ strike, which is contributing to the huge NHS appointments backlog. Labour’s commitment to workplace reform, saddling employers with greater costs and regulation, is the polar opposite of what is needed for a fast-growing economy. A possible hike in inheritance or capital gains tax, the assault on non-doms and levying of VAT on independent school fees suggest the party’s traditional disdain for aspiration is alive and kicking. As with tax and spend, Labour’s position on illegal migration borders on the disingenuous. If better policing and processing of asylum claimants were the sole answers illegal migration would be history. Labour offers no fresh deterrent to migrants heading for these shores. There is no fresh take, either, on tackling the explosion in working-age sickness benefit claimants, together with debt servicing one of the biggest threats to the government’s finances.
Then there is Labour’s attitude to trans rights and the safety of women. Sir Keir was admirably clear in backing JK Rowling over the sanctity of women-only spaces but many in his party are in hock to trans zealotry.
A question mark remains over the party’s approach to free speech. We trust it will not seek curbs on the ancient right of the freedom of the press.
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This is not 1997. Tony Blair was carried into office not merely by the exhaustion of the electorate after 18 years of Tory government, he was a formidable political salesman, fresh from remodelling his party and ditching Clause IV. He was blessed, too, with an economy heading in the right direction. Sir Keir remains an unpopular figure and will inherit a country still in slow recovery from the pandemic and the energy shock. The economy is fragile and room for manoeuvre is severely limited. The central question of coming years will be the strength of Sir Keir’s resolve to reject his party’s statist instincts and embrace radical solutions emanating from the private sector. “Change” is an easy pitch but actual change in the form of boosting productivity, taking on vested interests in the public sector, achieving energy sovereignty, reforming the health service, creating affordable homes and modernising infrastructure will be hugely challenging.
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This newspaper wants the next government to succeed, and it will not be ungenerous in praise if that is the case. But Labour has yet to earn the trust of the British people. It has been sparing with the truth about what it will do in office and cannot expect an endorsement. Sir Keir may have secured a huge majority by Friday. The day after he must begin the process of earning it.
