After a long campaign, we enter the final straight on Thursday evening and Friday morning as a long night of political drama brings election 2024 to an end.
Six weeks after Rishi Sunak battled through the Downing Street rain to announce a snap summer election, the big day has finally arrived. For some it will be a relief to see the end of the campaigning, debates and manifesto promises, but for many fans of politics this will be one of the biggest nights of television in years.
• UK election results – follow live
Politicians have spent the campaign telling us that there’s only one opinion poll that matters, and that’s the general election on July 4 — and the BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Sky News and Times Radio certainly seem to agree. Between the TV and radio channels, they’ve assembled the great and the good of the journalistic, political and — new this year — the podcasting world, to begin pawing over exit polls, analysing the results and reacting to the biggest news, from the moment voting ends.
But what can you expect from the broadcasters and should you stay up late or set an early alarm to catch the best of the action? Here’s our indispensable guide to election night …
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Key times — your hour-by-hour guide
10pm — exit poll
We’ll get our first indication of the overall result as the joint BBC, ITV and Sky News exit poll result is revealed just minutes after voting ends. Although the poll is only a sample of voters from roughly 150 constituencies across the country, exit polls have historically proven to be relatively accurate and have improved in recent elections with more sophisticated methodologies. It will certainly give us a flavour of how each party has performed nationally and give broadcasters something to discuss while they wait for the first results.
11pm-11.30pm — first result
The first result will arrive from the North East by 11.30pm. Between 1992 and 2015 Sunderland has declared first, but in 2017 and 2019, Newcastle took over the mantle. However, this year, Newcastle city council has indicate that Newcastle Central and West won’t declare until after 1am, meaning that we expect Sunderland to be first again. Although this early result will come from a very safe Labour seat, it will give the first clue to analysts as to how the vote has swung between parties since 2019.
12am — boundary change chat
It is harder than ever to predict the timings of the election results because no fewer than 584 of the 650 constituencies have had boundary changes this election — and only 40 of those were classed as minor changes. This will provide a lot of fodder for chat and speculation as broadcasters wait for more results, as well as the opportunity to explain how boundary changes may affect the result.
1am-2am — the first big results
If we base this on 2019, we should expect about 50 constituencies to declare by 2am. Although many of these will be from safe Labour urban constituencies in the north of England, several key Tory-held seats should return. Look out for the bellwether Warwickshire constituency of Nuneaton where the Tories are defending a majority of just over 13,000 and Harlow in Essex where Labour will be looking to overturn a majority of 14,000. If Labour sees big swings here, it could be an excellent night for Keir Starmer. Such results will also give a clue as to how much Reform UK has damaged the Conservative vote. In Rochdale, we’ll find out if George Galloway is able to hold the seat he took in a by-election earlier this year for the Workers Party of Britain.
• Which Tory MPs could lose their seats? From Jeremy Hunt to Penny Mordaunt
2am-3am — Scotland and London
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In this hour we’ll see the battle between the SNP and Labour in Scotland really start to unfold as it becomes clear just how things have changed north of the border. We can also look forward to many of the 73 London parliamentary constituencies declaring their results. Keep an eye out for Islington North and Jeremy Corbyn who is standing as an independent candidate, which could come around 3am.
3am-4am — Clacton, Bristol and ‘Portillo moments’
This is the busiest hour. In 2019 about a third of all constituencies declared their results in this period. Look out for Reform leader Nigel Farage’s attempt to become MP for Clacton and Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer’s attempt to take the newly created Bristol Central seat in a tight race with Labour. This is the time where we may well see a number of senior Conservatives lose their seats in so-called “Portillo moments”. Look out for Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt defending a 15,000 majorityin Portsmouth South, home secretary James Cleverly in Braintree, defence secretary Grant Shapps in Welwyn and Hatfield, Jacob Rees-Mogg in Bridgwater and West Somerset and Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash, all of whom are at risk.
4am-5am — Sunak, Starmer and … the result?
By now it’s likely that almost two thirds of the votes will be in and the new political landscape will be becoming much clearer. In 2019 Sunak’s North Yorkshire constituency of Richmond declared at 4.14am. Some polls have even put his 24,000 majority at risk, but even if Sunak survives, could the writing be on the wall for the Tories by now? His speech on stage at the count will be watched closely. Starmer’s London Holborn and St Pancras result is expected around the same time and if polls are to be believed his speech may have a more positive tone.
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5am and beyond — are we there yet?
With the majority of the results in, celebrations and repercussions will be in full swing across the political parties. Those who are staying up late (or getting up early) will get to see how former prime minister Liz Truss does in southwest Norfolk where she’s defending a 26,000 majority, but according to some polls she may still be in for a tight race.
Who’s who on TV and radio?
BBC TV and Radio
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Laura Kuenssberg and Clive Myrie anchor the coverage on BBC1 alongside the political editor Chris Mason and Professor Sir John Curtice. Reeta Chakrabarti will offer analysis from the BBC London studios while Jeremy Vine takes the famous swingometer on the road to Cardiff. Kirsty Wark reports from Glasgow and Andrea Catherwood is in Belfast. Fiona Bruce, Victoria Derbyshire, Naga Munchetty, Nick Watt and Alex Forsyth will be among the BBC reporters at key counts across the nation. As night turns to day Sophie Raworth, Jon Kay and the deputy political editor, Vicki Young, will take over as the political map of the UK becomes clear. BBC Radio 4 and 5 Live will simulcast election coverage on the wireless, led by Rachel Burden and Nick Robinson. They will be joined by Henry Zeffman, the BBC’s chief political correspondent, and a host of guests until Today begins on Friday morning.
ITV
Tom Bradby helms election night, joined by Robert Peston, Anushka Asthana and Paul Brand, with analysis from the professors Jane Green and Colin Rallings. The Political Currency podcast duo George Osborne and Ed Balls and the former SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon join as pundits. From 6am a Good Morning Britain special hosted by Susanna Reid will include contributions from Andrew Pierce and Kevin Maguire, Boris Johnson’s former communications chief Guto Harri, the Labour veteran Harriet Harman and the former chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng.
Channel 4
Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by The News Agents podcast host Emily Maitlis, with analysis from The Rest Is Politics duo Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart. Professor Hannah Fry crunches the numbers. Visiting pundits will include Nadhim Zahawi, Vince Cable and Ann Widdecombe. Gary Gibbon, the political editor of Channel 4 News, will give analysis and there will be light-hearted input from the Gogglebox families.
Sky News
Kay Burley anchors the Sky News coverage from a “360-degree immersive studio”, which is usually used for Monday Night Football. She’ll be joined for news and analysis by Beth Rigby, Sir Trevor Phillips, Ed Conway and Sam Coates. The mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, and the former Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson will give punditry. Professor Michael Thrasher will be on hand for psephological support. From 7am Sophy Ridge takes over with the Sky News contributor Adam Boulton.
Times Radio
Matt Chorley hosts on election night, kicking off 100 hours of live coverage across the weekend. The former Sunday Times editor, Andrew Neil, the Times columnist and former Conservative leader, William Hague, the New Labour architect, Peter Mandelson, and the Times Radio political editor, Kate McCann, are among those offering expert analysis.
