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Marine Le Pen says National Rally have ‘serious chance’ for absolute majority despite polls – as it happened

Polling has shown that the most likely scenario on Sunday is that National Rally will not win an absolute majority of seats

 Updated 
in Paris
Fri 5 Jul 2024 13.21 EDTFirst published on Fri 5 Jul 2024 03.02 EDT
Marine Le Pen is interviewed by Apolline de Malherbe.
Marine Le Pen is interviewed by Apolline de Malherbe. Photograph: Domine Jerome/ABACA/REX/Shutterstock
Marine Le Pen is interviewed by Apolline de Malherbe. Photograph: Domine Jerome/ABACA/REX/Shutterstock

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Far right at 205-230 seats: Les Echos poll

And here’s another new poll, conducted for Les Echos.

This poll puts the far right National Rally at between 205 and 230 seats.

🗳️ SONDAGE EXCLUSIF - Législatives 2024 : le RN mal parti pour décrocher une majorité absolue à l'Assemblée ➡️ https://t.co/KahwQdKr7s

Derrière le RN viendrait le Nouveau Front populaire (NFP), avec entre 145 et 175 sièges, puis la majorité sortante (130-162). pic.twitter.com/u42eureArq

— Les Echos (@LesEchos) July 5, 2024
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Here’s a look at the polling numbers in the 6th district of Calvados, where a former prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, is competing against far right candidate Nicolas Calbrix.

An Ifop study found that Borne would take 54% in the second round, compared to 46% for Calbrix.

Etude @IfopOpinion - @Fiducial pour @SudRadio : Le climat législatif dans la 6e circonscription du Calvados

👉Au second tour des élections législatives, E. Borne recueillerait 54% des suffrages exprimés, contre 46% pour le candidat du Rassemblement national N. Calbrix pic.twitter.com/L6J78ENDZT

— Ifop Opinion (@IfopOpinion) July 5, 2024

There’s one phrase I’ve heard repeated among voters I spoke with in Paris this morning:

“It’s a mess.”

Here is the latest projection from Ifop for France’s 577-member national assembly:

Far right National Rally: 210-240

Left wing New Popular Front: 170-200

Macron’s allies: 95-125

🌀 Rolling législatives Ifop-@Fiducial pour @LCI, @Le_Figaro & @SudRadio

🚨 Le rendez-vous quotidien des élections législatives#legislatives2024

La projection en siège à l’Assemblée nationale

NFP : 170-200
Majo. Présid. : 95-125
LR et DVD : 25-45
RN et alliées : 210-240 pic.twitter.com/hkV5K2WCOF

— Ifop Opinion (@IfopOpinion) July 4, 2024

'It's always the same thing': Disenchantment on the metro

At another Paris metro stop, I sit next to a middle-aged woman who asked that her name not be published.

Asked about Sunday’s election, she said: “honestly, I have no trust at all. It’s always the same thing, it’s always the same debates.”

But asked if she will go vote she said “yes,” adding however that “honestly I don’t feel like voting.”

She did say she has a preference: “not the extremes, not the right, the middle.”

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On the metro: A voter hoping for stability

I’m now at a metro station in central Paris talking to commuters about how they are feeling about the election.

As she was waiting to board a train, one voter, Fatima, she is hoping the extremes won’t do well.

“I will go vote, that’s for sure – I think it’s an obligation,” she said.

She said she hopes the situation in France will be stabilised.

“I hope the extremes won’t pass,” she said.

“We try to vote for the least worst,” she added, saying that everything has been done in a hurry and there was “surprise” about this election.

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National Rally would fail to get absolute majority: Elabe poll

Here’s another poll by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, published this morning. As a reminder, 289 seats are required for an absolute majority in the national assembly.

Far right National Rally: 200-230

Left wing New Popular Front: 165-190

Macron’s allies: 120-140

7 MINUTES POUR COMPRENDRE - Législatives: ce qui dit notre dernier sondage avant le second tour pic.twitter.com/bAKpTUvn7S

— BFMTV (@BFMTV) July 5, 2024

Serious chance for absolute majority, Marine Le Pen argues

It’s Friday morning, and the campaign is soon reaching its conclusion.

The far right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen appeared on Cnews – a channel critics have labelled the “French Fox News” – to urge supporters to go to the polls on Sunday.

“We have a serious chance of having an absolute majority in the national assembly,” she said.

Polling has shown, however, that the most likely scenario on Sunday is that National Rally will not win an absolute majority of seats.

Le Pen told viewers that the seats polling is not an exact science.

Marine Le Pen : «Nous avons des chances sérieuses d'avoir la majorité absolue à l'Assemblée nationale» #LaGrandeInterview pic.twitter.com/nRiBBIHKNJ

— CNEWS (@CNEWS) July 5, 2024

Welcome to the Paris blog

Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog, coming to you today from Paris.

With the second round of the French legislative election just days away, we will be delving into the latest on the campaign trail.

Send comments and tips to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.

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