Even when the regime unexpectedly approved the candidacy of a moderate, many Iranians opted out of the presidential election, suspecting that if voting really changed anything, the authorities would probably have made it illegal. That was reflected in the first round’s record low turnout: just 39.9%.
Yet Masoud Pezeshkian made it to the second round and has now swept to victory, beating his hardline opponent, Saeed Jalili, by 16.3m votes to 13.5m votes. Though some boycotted the runoff too, turnout shot up to 49.8% as the public realised that the former heart surgeon and health minister could make it to the top.
Mr Pezeshkian, who was backed by reformists, has called for a relaxation of the mandatory hijab laws, which led to the vast “woman, life, freedom” protests that were brutally suppressed, and of some internet restrictions. He has also said that he would reach out to the west in the hope that sanctions which have debilitated Iran’s economy would be loosened.
Unlike many reformist candidates, say analysts, Mr Pezeshkian has been generally more focused on social justice and inequality than political liberties, and appealed to some working-class conservatives thanks to his reputation as a “clean” figure in a corrupt system. Others may have turned to him because they were tired of infighting among conservatives. His team fought an energetic house-to-house, street-level campaign.
The powers of the president are limited. Mr Pezeshkian acknowledged the need for realism on Sunday, warning moderates: “We make promises and we fail to fulfil them. This is the biggest problem we have.” The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, maintains ultimate control, and his age and poor health could soon see the destabilisation of the political realm. The Revolutionary Guards not only have huge influence in foreign policy but also entrenched economic interests to defend. While his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi – whose death in a helicopter crash prompted this election – was a political insider, Mr Pezeshkian was a low-profile figure prior to this race. But he has an experienced team around him, including Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister whose backing was key to his success and who is likely to play a key role.
That may prove critical amid the soaring tensions in the Middle East. There are growing fears of a full-scale war between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel, and an increasing likelihood of Donald Trump – who withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal – returning to the White House.
Critically, Mr Pezeshkian’s candidacy and victory suggest that both the regime and the Iranian people may have seized the opportunity offered by Mr Raisi’s death: the former, to partially re-engage a disaffected population, and perhaps stabilise relations with the west; the latter, hoping to improve living standards and regain a little of the breathing space and agency denied them.
With pressure growing on Joe Biden to drop his bid for re-election, the current US administration has even less bandwidth for dealings with Tehran. European diplomats have done admirable work in trying to shore up relations and reduce proliferation risks; their efforts will need to be redoubled. Mr Pezeshkian’s unexpected triumph offers some hope for Iranians and those outside Iran – especially as his rival was an ideologically hardline former nuclear negotiator who opposed the 2015 deal. The opportunities should not be overestimated. But, however small, they must be seized.