STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — The latest forecast maps for the Fourth of July show a potential for thunderstorms encroaching on New York City.
Recent forecasts indicate that Independence Day will be in the upper 80s and feature thunderstorms in the evening hours.
“On Thursday it could be a soaker if it gets humid again,” explained Matt Benz, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, on Monday. “It’s too early to say how much rain we could see specifically but there could be some downpours later Thursday and certainly as we head into Friday and Saturday.”
Despite the dreary forecast raining on the parade (perhaps literally), the latest maps might offer some hope for those counting on an outdoor celebration.
Maps show NYC on storm threshold
While the threat of thunderstorms loom nearby, the latest maps from AccuWeather reveal that New York City rests on the threshold of seeing such stormy conditions.
New York City appears to sit right along the edge of areas forecast to experience storms in the p.m. hours on Thursday. The map makes it seem as though the city could narrowly dodge the rumble of thunder.
An AccuWeather graphic shows weather conditions in New York on Thursday, July 4, 2024. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
“In terms of dry versus rainy weather, most locations across the nation will not experience rain but only brief showers or thunderstorms, so most of the day will be free of rain,” AccuWeather reports.
A map outlining the anticipated temperatures for the day shows most of the state with AccuWeather RealFeel temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
As for viewing conditions for fireworks? AccuWeather predicts most of the nation will have favorable conditions. Most of the state is slated with “good” viewing conditions; New York City faces “fair” conditions.
An AccuWeather graphic shows fireworks viewing conditions in New York on Thursday, July 4, 2024. (Courtesy of AccuWeather)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
National Weather Service forecast
Although AccuWeather’s latest forecast holds a glimmer of hope for the state, the National Weather Service (NWS) map maintains the point that most of downstate New York, including the city, will see rain/thunderstorms on the Fourth of July.
Despite this dismal outlook, the map does not clearly illustrate the extent of these unfavorable conditions. Even if New York City does see rain, that could just very well be a brief bout in the afternoon, as mentioned by AccuWeather.
A National Weather Service graphic shows weather conditions in New York on Thursday, July 4, 2024. (Courtesy of the National Weather Service)(Courtesy of AccuWeather)
At this time, the NWS gives New York City a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. The day’s high is slated to hit 86 degrees.
The probability of precipitation rises a little bit in the evening to a 40% chance of thunderstorms and showers.
While nearly a coin flip, there is a chance New York steers clear of any wet weather.