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The Hot List

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Updated Jul 8, 2024, 4:59pm EDT

Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.

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1
UK – Labour landslide
Legislative elections on July 4, 2024

UK Labour won a colossal victory in Thursday's general election. The center-left party secured 412 out of 650 total seats as of the latest count, compared to the Tories with just 121. While Labour's landslide was one of the biggest in the party's history, the overall results still saw erosion for both of the UK's major parties. Labour's popular vote victory came across as somewhat underwhelming compared to polling, as well, as the party clocked in only 10 points ahead of the Tories when many surveys had anticipated double that.

ArrowThe UK last appeared on the Hot List at #3, featuring a possible SNP loss in Scotland.
Al Lucca
2
Philippines – Three Dutertes
Senate elections in 2025

Three Dutertes could run for Senate in the Philippines, according to reports. In what has been described as a "desperate pursuit of power," former Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte and his two sons may all make a bid for the upper house of the national legislature in 2025. The elder Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. have an openly hostile relationship, including mutual accusations of drug use, even as Duterte's daughter Sara serves as vice president. Time will tell whether the dispute creates an opening for opposition to both families, given the system of one-round presidential elections in the Philippines.

ArrowThe Philippines last appeared on the Hot List at #6, with the exoneration of Duterte drug war critic Leila de Lima.
3
France – Business stance
Legislative election on June 30, 2024

As the French far-right lurches toward government, its proposed finance minister wants to reassure big business. Jean-Philippe Tanguy, considered the frontrunner for finance minister in a potential National Rally government, says the party “won’t let the deficit run out of control” despite its reputation for mixing social spending with social conservatism, and would act to slash both regulations and government funding. According to current projections, a National Rally government is less likely than no overall majority in parliament, but is still a possibility if the party overperforms.

ArrowFrance last appeared on the Hot List at #1, with the potential of a National Rally majority.
Joey Pfeifer
4
South Africa – Provincial deals
Provincial elections held May 29, 2024

South Africa’s new unity government extends to the provincial level, too. In the provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, government formation will likely replicate the ANC’s national coalition agreement, bringing together a host of parties that span the political spectrum. Gauteng, home to Johannesburg, saw the ANC drop below 40% in its provincial vote, while in KwaZulu-Natal the party was completely swept away by the new Spear of the Nation movement led by former president Jacob Zuma.

ArrowSouth Africa last appeared on the Hot List at #3, looking at a potential unity government.
5
Hungary – MEGA
EU Parliament elections held through June 9, 2024

Hungary will take over the EU’s revolving presidency, and the country’s right-wing government is adopting “Make Europe Great Again” as its slogan. It’s clear that Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban intends to make full use of its platform at the fore of the bloc’s Council with the phrase, which “raised a few eyebrows” among EU officials. Orban and Donald Trump are close allies: Hungary’s 6-month term will coincide with the US presidential election campaign, where Trump will seek a return to office after four years out of power.

ArrowHungary last appeared on the Hot List at #7, with a photo-finish result in Budapest's mayoral election.
Joey Pfeifer
6
Canada – By-election shock
Legislative elections in 2025

A recent by-election in Toronto spells political disaster for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Canada’s Conservative Party won in shocking fashion to represent a Toronto parliamentary seat previously considered a Liberal stronghold. In 2021, Trudeau’s incumbent candidate won by a margin of 24 points; this time around, the Conservatives narrowly picked it up. Conservatives have been leading national polling in Canada, and the Toronto by-election seems to confirm the party has a chance to break through even where the Liberals dominate.

ArrowCanada last appeared on the Hot List at #7, looking at Mississauga's new mayor Carolyn Parrish.
7
Kenya – UDA infighting
Presidential election in 2027

The governor of Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, is at the center of an internal conflict developing within the president’s party. Governor Johnson Sakaja, from the nationally incumbent UDA, is looking to take over the party’s chairmanship in Nairobi County. The contest has developed into a struggle between factions, with opponents of Sakaja launching “vicious attacks” on his credibility, accusing him of “high-level corruption.” Sakaja’s enemies may even include Rigathi Gachagua, Kenya’s deputy president.

ArrowKenya last appeared on the Hot List at #3, looking at attempts to change presidential term limits.
Joey Pfeifer
8
USA – Bow out
Primary elections held June 25, 2024

Progressive Congressman Jamaal Bowman lost his seat to moderate challenge George Latimer in Democratic primary elections held in New York. Bowman was targeted with over 15 million dollars in ad spending from pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, making the race one of the most expensive primaries in history. With Hillary Clinton endorsing Latimer on one side and Bernie Sanders endorsing Bowman on the other, the race was viewed by some as a rehash of the 2016 presidential primary.

ArrowThe USA last appeared on the Hot List at #3, with Donald Trump's criminal conviction.
9
North Macedonia – Nationalist parliament
Legislative elections held May 8, 2024

Nationalists now hold North Macedonia’s legislature and are already stoking conflict with neighboring Greece. The right-wing VMRO-DPMNE party secured both the presidency and first place in parliamentary elections held in May, cementing their influence over the country. The new prime minister, Hristijan Mickoski, continues to refer to “North Macedonia” as just “Macedonia” in contravention of its agreement with Greece to defuse a territorial dispute, and has rolled back plans for resolving a dispute with Bulgaria — both of which could threaten North Macedonia’s accession to the EU.

ArrowNorth Macedonia last appeared on the Hot List at #7, with an initial look at nationalist victories in recent elections.
Emma Roshan
THE BIG READ
Reuters/Leonhard Foeger

Austrian social democrats have a novel plank for this year’s election: free media subscriptions for young people. As Politico reports, the policy aims to “combat fake news” by offering news subscriptions for Austrian citizens between the ages of 16 and 30. Press in Austria has struggled in recent years, and the measure is intended to both support a healthy information diet for young voters and revitalize the “poor financial health” of Austrian news outlets through government funding.

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