If National Rally were to secure an absolute majority in the French National Assembly, it could of course try to carry out its far-right vision of reckless fiscal expansion and anti-EU unilateralism. But if it is smart, it would offer a more disciplined fiscal-policy agenda to reassure markets and other European leaders.
PARIS – Following a trip to Paris in late 2022, I wrote a controversial research note pushing back against the conventional wisdom of the time. Following his re-election earlier that year, French President Emmanuel Macron, I argued, would continue to rule like Napoleon, hubristically enacting prudent but unpopular reforms by decree, rather than by securing parliamentary majorities. I predicted that by the time of the next European elections, his party would have fallen fully out of favor, allowing Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally to win in a landslide.
PARIS – Following a trip to Paris in late 2022, I wrote a controversial research note pushing back against the conventional wisdom of the time. Following his re-election earlier that year, French President Emmanuel Macron, I argued, would continue to rule like Napoleon, hubristically enacting prudent but unpopular reforms by decree, rather than by securing parliamentary majorities. I predicted that by the time of the next European elections, his party would have fallen fully out of favor, allowing Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally to win in a landslide.