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Election 2024 Polls: Wisconsin

‹ See all presidential polls

Election 2024 Polls: Wisconsin

‹ See all presidential polls

Who’s leading the polls?

Wisconsin polling average

About this data Note: Individual poll results are shown as circles for each candidate. Polls with greater weight in the average have larger circles. Some state averages started later in 2024 because of a lack of sufficient early polling. Source: Averages by The New York Times; polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.

Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling

After the debate, polls have shown Donald J. Trump gaining ground nationally. We don’t yet have enough post-debate polling in swing states to reliably gauge if things have changed in key battlegrounds. Updated July 3

The latest Wisconsin polls

Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more. You can toggle to show only select pollsters and choose head-to-head or three-way matchups.

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About this data Note: Some polls may include responses for “undecided” or other candidates that may not be included in this table. Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. Source: Polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The New York Times.

Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling

Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.

Measuring the Kennedy effect

We calculate averages for polls that ask voters to choose between Biden and Trump, and for polls that include Kennedy. (Many polls do both.) Here’s a comparison of these averages.

Wisconsin polling average

About this data Note: Some state averages started later in 2024 because of a lack of sufficient early polling.

William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics

Third-party candidates present particular challenges for pollsters, and they can be a significant factor in elections. Here you can get a sense of how Robert F. Kennedy Jr. might affect support for Biden and Trump. Just know that, historically, most polls have significantly overstated support for third-party candidates.

About our polling averages

Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.

We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling

These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.

The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.

Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.

Credits

By Cam Baker, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jaymin Patel, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.