The facts of Matvei Michkov’s prospect profile are that of an extremely skilled and intelligent wing with off-the-chart scoring numbers, and notable flaws in his game. He is also signed in the KHL with SKA St. Petersburg through the 2025-26 season. I’ve given my thoughts, but today we turn to The Athletic beat writers to answer questions on the potential Michkov selection.
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1. What do your readers/fanbase think of a potential Matvei Michkov pick with the team’s first selection in the 2023 NHL Draft?
Aaron Portzline/Columbus: Matvei Michkov is an intriguing talent, obviously, but I don’t get the sense that most Blue Jackets fans are clamoring for him to be picked at No. 3. There’s a keen understanding here that the Blue Jackets have a desperate need for improved play at center ice, and this draft sets up very well at the top for teams in need of future No. 1 centers. Is it Carlsson? Is it Smith? The what’s-your-flavor question seems more relevant than any consideration of taking Michkov. The dream remains that Adam Fantilli somehow stays on the board at No. 3, but does anybody really believe that Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek — the original “Little Ball of Hate” — is going to pass on Fantilli? The other reason Blue Jackets fans are mostly in the “Carlsson or Smith” camp is because drafting Michkov means waiting a few years before his NHL impact, and Blue Jackets fans just don’t have patience in their playbook right now.
Arpon Basu/Montreal: The majority of Canadiens fans, as far as I can tell, are dying for them to draft Michkov. And in my opinion, this has less to do with Michkov than it does with the idea of what Michkov represents, a potential offensive superstar, something the Canadiens have lacked since Guy Lafleur. The risk is real, but worth it for the fanbase because of that gap that has lasted more than 40 years.
New post @TheAthleticNHL: On Matvei Michkov, and the big draft decision facing NHL teams next week https://t.co/aS494Qo70Q
— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) June 20, 2023
Charlie O’Connor/Philadelphia: Well, given the fact that 58.5 percent of voters in our Flyers Fan Survey back in late May picked Michkov as their preferred draft option at No. 7, I’d say it’s fairly obvious what The Athletic subscriber subsection of the fanbase would like them to do. The Flyers currently lack true impact-level talent. It’s been a problem for years, but especially now that Claude Giroux is gone and Sean Couturier is coming off two back surgeries — and neither was a no-doubt-about-it star anyway. Cutter Gauthier is an exciting prospect, but he’s far from certain to develop into the type of talent that can be the No. 1 player on a Stanley Cup contender. Out of all the players who might be available at No. 7, Michkov is the most likely to have that kind of ceiling, so it makes perfect sense that Flyers fans would be on board with such a big swing — even if it takes three seasons (or longer) for him to arrive.
Tarik El-Bashir/Washington: Based on my Twitter notifications over the past month and the comments on my draft-related articles, I can say with confidence that Caps fans would be very excited to snag Michkov should he be available at No. 8. I’ve tried to temper expectations but to no avail. It feels like a large segment of the fan base has talked itself into believing the risks associated with the 5-foot-10 Russian will cause him to fall into Washington’s lap.
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Max Bultman/Detroit: From what I can tell, the majority of Red Wings fans like the idea because of the Red Wings’ dire need for a potential game breaker. Michkov is that, and as the team improves, it’s going to get tougher and tougher to find such a player in the draft — we’re only discussing them for Michkov, for example, because his nationality and contract could lead him to drop from where he might otherwise go on pure talent. That doesn’t seem to be a unanimous opinion, though, mainly because of the uncertainty that comes with drafting a Russian right now (especially with three years left on his contract). There’s also the fact that Michkov is a smaller forward whose compete has been called into question at times, and it’s true that you have to be really sure when discussing that kind of profile this high in a draft. But if the Red Wings were to come away with Michkov, I think the pick would be well received by fans on the whole.
Jeremy Rutherford/St. Louis: We did a fan survey, asking how comfortable they’d be with the Blues taking Michkov, with “5” being very comfortable and “1” being not comfortable. There were 34.4 percent who chose 5, and 24.8 percent who chose 4, so more than half of those who responded were mostly comfortable with the team taking him.
2. Where do you think the team’s hockey ops personnel fall on Michkov’s evaluation as a hockey player and if they would want to select him?
Aaron Portzline/Columbus: My sense is they are wowed by his skills and abilities just like everybody else. But I don’t think there is much of an appetite to pass over the centers on the draft board to select another winger.
Arpon Basu/Montreal: I honestly believe the Canadiens are not overly concerned about Michkov coming over from Russia. It is their strict hockey evaluation that has them concerned about him, most notably his size and the one-dimensional nature of his game. The talent in the offensive zone is undeniable, but it is the other two zones that I feel concerns the Canadiens. And that’s not only a reference to his lack of defensive acumen, the fact he is not much of a driver through the neutral zone is something I feel concerns them as well.
Charlie O’Connor/Philadelphia: I think the Flyers love Michkov’s talent. They tend to be an organization that highly prioritizes intangibles, however, and I have a hunch that they’d be wary of selecting a player with such a high pick without having the ability to do their preferred level of due diligence on that side of Michkov due to the complications of the past year. It just adds another risk element for them.
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Max Bultman/Detroit: Steve Yzerman and his staff keep a low profile, but I have to believe they’re interested. They’re a team that prioritizes competitiveness, so that matters in this conversation, but they are surely aware of the organization’s need for a player with this kind of offensive ability. So it’s my opinion here that they would see the upside, but the lack of live viewings could be a hiccup in this regard, and maybe not a small one.
Tarik El-Bashir/Washington: Years of drafting in the 20s (or worse) prompted the Caps to take a gamble with their last two first rounders. In 2020, they used the No. 22 pick on Hendrix Lapierre, whose injury history scared away other teams. Last year, they spent the No. 20 selection on Ivan Miroshnichenko, whose cancer diagnosis gave other clubs pause. So, yeah, drafting Michkov would fit Washington’s recent M.O. to a T.
Jeremy Rutherford/St. Louis: The Blues’ amateur scouting department does a terrific job, so I’m sure they’re intrigued by Michkov and the possibility that he’d be available. But between his contract status, and the limited views they’ve probably had with Michkov, I don’t think he is as high on their list as he is on other lists.
3. Where do you think the team’s ownership stand on the decision to draft Michkov?
Aaron Portzline/Columbus: I certainly don’t think ownership gives the Blue Jackets draft-day directives, and they aren’t likely to start now. Majority owner John P. McConnell wants a winner, but he’s wise enough to leave the hockey decisions to president of hockey operations John Davidson and GM Jarmo Kekalainen, who has gone back to his scouting roots extensively over the last several months with the Blue Jackets suffering through such an awful season.
Arpon Basu/Montreal: The minimum three-year wait, I would imagine, would concern owner Geoff Molson, as would the war in Ukraine and the possibility of Michkov signing another contract in Russia once this one is done. But ultimately, ownership has shown a consistent belief in the hockey operations department. This will be their decision.
Charlie O’Connor/Philadelphia: I’m skeptical that Comcast Spectacor would veto a Michkov pick. They’re very much on board with new GM Daniel Briere’s vision of rebuilding the Flyers, and if Briere comes to them and says that Michkov is the right pick for the Flyers at this moment in time, I do believe they would get on board. Now, would there be concerns? Sure. The Flyers were the team that was burned by the Ivan Fedotov situation — thus far the most glaring example of a Russian player not being able to leave his country to play in the NHL due to the current geopolitical situation. But if Briere and president of hockey operations Keith Jones go to bat for Michkov, I don’t see Comcast overruling them.
Tarik El-Bashir/Washington: I do not suspect Michkov’s nationality would be a concern for Washington’s ownership. The team hasn’t been shy about supporting its Russian players. The Caps also drafted Miroshnichenko last July; Russia had already invaded Ukraine and, at the time, Miroshnichenko was under contract in the KHL. (In May, the 19-year-old winger and Avangard Omsk mutually agreed to terminate his contract, thus clearing the way for him to sign with the Caps.
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Max Bultman/Detroit: With how long the Red Wings’ rebuild has taken, you do wonder if ownership would have any issues waiting three more years for a premium draft pick to even attend a training camp. But the team took Dmitri Buchelnikov from the same organization in the second round last year, and while there is a difference between a top-10 pick and a second-rounder, that’s a good indication they aren’t scared off by the so-called “Russian factor.” And, perhaps more importantly, this is a franchise that has seen first-hand what the reward for taking risks on Russian players can yield. They owe a substantial part of their history to that very notion. So while the allure of a quicker payoff could be real, there’s enough reason to believe ownership would be on board.
Jeremy Rutherford/St. Louis: Chairman Tom Stillman puts a lot of faith in GM Doug Armstrong and his amateur scouting department, so I can say with extreme confidence that Stillman would leave that decision to them and not interfere. If Armstrong and Co. aren’t comfortable with picking Michkov, then Stillman wouldn’t be comfortable either.
4. What do you think the team will do if Michkov is available at their draft slot? Would your opinion differ at all?
Aaron Portzline/Columbus: He will be available at No. 3 when the Blue Jackets pick. I suppose it’s not out of the question that Columbus would trade down to No. 4 or No. 5 if San Jose or (especially) Montreal are desperately compelled to move up for Michkov, but that seems unlikely to happen.
Arpon Basu/Montreal: I don’t think the Canadiens will draft Michkov if he is available at No. 5. That’s the impression I get based on many conversations with team personnel I’ve had. My own opinion is that the Canadiens already have Cole Caufield, and having another one-dimensional, undersized scoring winger in the team’s top-six is not a recipe for a Stanley Cup. If Caufield weren’t around, I would fully endorse rolling the dice on Michkov. But Caufield is around, and he has an eight-year contract for a lot of money. You need to build a roster that can win the Stanley Cup, and while drafting for need might be seen as foolhardy, drafting with your team’s reality in mind seems to be practically smart to me.
Charlie O’Connor/Philadelphia: If I had to guess, I suspect they would pass on Michkov, though it wouldn’t blow me away if they went for it. After all, the Flyers have been taking riskier, bigger swings in recent drafts (Gauthier, Samu Tuomaala) which reflects their knowledge that they distinctly lack players who project as game changers in their pipeline (and on their NHL roster). Also, the team’s rebuilding timetable does fit quite well with Michkov’s contractual situation — the hope would be that in three seasons, he’d come over and be the final piece to put a reconstructed Philadelphia roster over the top into true contention. But I do suspect the Fedotov situation looms large for the front office in their memories, and the fact that they’ve mostly had to watch Michkov from afar over the past year rather than get to know him well as a player and a person will ultimately give them pause. That said, if David Reinbacher and Ryan Leonard go 5-6 in some order and Michkov is staring up at them as a result, I’d be fascinated to see if they actually have the stomach to pass on him.
Tarik El-Bashir/Washington: Washington would absolutely draft him — no question in my mind. The Caps’ path back to the postseason is a tricky one. The Alex Ovechkin-led core is aging, the salary cap is tight and the prospect pipeline is lacking. Adding a potential top-of-the-lineup player like Michkov on a rookie contract, though, could expedite things in a big way. Provided, of course, they’re able to lure him to North America sooner than later.
Max Bultman/Detroit: My guess is that Detroit would pick him at that spot. The big question, though, is whether the lack of live evaluation time would make that too risky for such a premium pick. Ultimately, there’s a certain point where the talent level is simply too high to keep passing up, and I think at nine, Michkov would qualify as such. But my guess is the diminished live scouting time would be a bigger obstacle for them than the contract and wait time, and I simply don’t know how big a factor that will ultimately be. When I asked Yzerman recently about the notion of drafting a player they hadn’t had as many scouts in to see live, and whether it would be prohibitive when using a high pick, he simply said, “Maybe. Maybe not.” So I’ll say yes, simply because of the talent, but this is more complicated than simply a wait-time issue.
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Jeremy Rutherford/St. Louis: This is where it may get a little tricky because the Blues typically select the best player available because it’s a good asset and, if necessary, good assets can be traded for other good assets. So if Michkov is the best player available when they pick, which is likely would be, then they’d have to take him. So I would think they’d take him at No. 10 if he’s there, but I don’t think they’d trade up even a slot or two to get him. Based on what I’ve read from Corey and others, I would not be opposed to picking Michkov at No. 10, or even trading up to get him, but only if the price is reasonable. The Blues have three first-round picks, so they do have some draft equity, but Armstrong has said that trading up in his draft will cost more than picks. The Blues are not really in a position to give up a lot to get one player, even with Michkov’s potential.
Corey Pronman’s analysis
Within the NHL, the most likely alley wall for a Michkov selection is seen between 7-9, as Philadelphia, Washington and Detroit are the odds-on favorites to select him. The above answers illustrate in part why that is between management security, history and team preferences/needs. Jeremy Rutherford’s replies regarding Michkov are interesting. I’m not 100 percent convinced St. Louis would take him, so if Michkov got to the 10 spot in the draft it could create an interesting dilemma. Does it start a free fall? Vladimir Tarasenko went 16th overall (to St. Louis mind you) after coming into the draft as a top-five talent during a time of peak concern on getting KHL players over.
I’ve seen things written or heard wild speculation like Michkov will fall out of the first round or into the late 20s. I can almost guarantee you that won’t be the case. If a fall into the teens happens, a team will jump on him in that range or organizations will make aggressive attempts to trade up, analogous to what happened in Tarasenko’s case.
(Photo: Maksim Konstantinov / SOPA Images / Sipa USA / Sipa via AP Images)