Pronman: Why NHL Draft prospect Matvei Michkov is worth the risk

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Matvei Michkov is the most fascinating prospect in the 2023 NHL Draft. He is a No. 1 pick type of talent under normal circumstances. The things he’s done in junior hockey for his age are incredible, and as one NHL executive put it, “his junior performance is so far to the right of the bell curve he falls off the curve.” He gets the highest grades on his pure skill level and hockey sense. He’s not the biggest or fastest winger, but his offensive touch is special, and nobody in the NHL is disputing that.

While not every NHL scout agrees, most scouts I’ve talked to think Michkov is at worst the fifth-best prospect in the 2023 draft class, and many think he’s as good or better than Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson. In conversations with a large number of NHL scouts, several expressed that they would be comfortable taking Michkov at No. 4, 3 and some even at No. 2 over Fantilli because of his star potential.

However, Michkov is signed with SKA St. Petersburg through the end of the 2025-26 KHL season. With that fact comes obvious complications for a team with a high draft pick, between the wait, the need to get him signed and the obvious issues surrounding the war in Ukraine. All those factors have resulted in NHL teams currently feeling hesitant about selecting Michkov, and Russians in general, with a high pick.

Opining about politics and Russia is not in my wheelhouse. I can’t give any informed opinions about those areas. All I can do is discuss hockey players, and try to relate this situation to the closest analogous situation I’ve seen in the past.

This is not the first time the fear of taking Russians high in the draft has been widespread. The KHL was founded in 2008, and shortly after, the Russian Factor became very real in the NHL Draft as the KHL attempted to compete with the NHL for talent. Vladimir Tarasenko, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Nikita Kucherov became examples of top Russian talents who slid in part due to that variable. Tarasenko and Kuznetsov, who were both considered top prospects going into the 2010 NHL Draft, are now top-five scorers on a per-game basis and have two Stanley Cup rings. Tarasenko went 16th and Kuznetsov 26th. Vasilevskiy was considered a top prospect as well going into his draft; he has two rings now and is probably the No. 1 overall pick in a 2012 redraft after going 19th.

There are elements about some lesser-known names in the 2023 NHL Draft that give them “sleeper” potential.@coreypronman on the players he thinks could elevate their prospect stock significantly with good development.https://t.co/qkrknBZmTa

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) June 15, 2023

Some skeptics point to SKA’s relationship to the Russian government and the team’s vast resources, and worry that Michkov could stay beyond the current three-year deal. Michkov is saying the right things about how he wants to play in the NHL. He can’t guarantee when that is going to be.

“The situation is volatile there, who knows what could happen next?” said one NHL scout, who, along with the other scouts and executives I interviewed for this article, was granted anonymity in order to speak freely about Michkov. “You saw with the Flyers last summer. They couldn’t get that goalie [Ivan Fedotov] over because he was arrested and enlisted. Maybe your guy gets arrested. Maybe he is forced to enlist. There’s all kinds of uncertainties.”

While the Flyers ran into major issues with Fedotov, plenty of Russian players have come to the NHL in the last 12 months, such as top free agent Andrei Kuzmenko and first-round picks Fedor Svechkov, Yarolsav Askarov and Ivan Miroshnichenko, although there have at times been obstacles in getting players back, like with Kirill Kaprizov last summer.

“At some point, the talent is so massive relative to the alternative that you take the gamble, but in the top five, top 10 even, you’re still getting an excellent player, and the difference between that guy and no player is rather huge to your organization” said an executive who was also skeptical of taking Michkov high.

That talent delta between Michkov and what will be the next best alternative is an important variable to consider. It’s close between him and Adam Fantilli in the eyes of most scouts, and it’s why most scouts will not fault a team for taking Fantilli. Enough believe Carlsson and Will Smith are close or close enough in ability to not question that either.

But when it starts becoming Michkov versus David Reinbacher, Zachary Benson, Dalibor Dvorsky, Nate Danielson, Gabe Perreault, Ryan Leonard or Colby Barlow, most scouts agree there is a massive gap in ability, and you are leaving a lot of talent on the board by picking someone other than Michkov. There are no guarantees as well on any of those players hitting to their potential.

In my opinion, there is a significant drop in ability from Michkov to Carlsson. The drop in talent is equivalent of that from Carlsson to the 18th-ranked player on my draft board. I have Will Smith from the U.S. NTDP closely behind Carlsson, but in terms of Michkov to the next best non-Carlsson/Smith player, that drop is cataclysmic. It’s the equivalent of the difference between Carlsson and players rated as late-round picks in terms of hockey ability. If Carlsson, Smith and Fantilli are gone and you take someone other than Michkov, in my opinion, you are picking a dramatically worse player.

The opportunity cost is also massive if you say no to Michkov. This is a rare draft where a talent of his caliber could be available beyond the first few picks due to the unique strength at the top of the draft. If you decline to pick Michkov, a player with truly elite skill and hockey sense, as a management group, you may not get a second chance to pick a player again of that caliber of skill. They don’t come along every draft; they didn’t in 2022 or 2021. Lafrenière and Jack Hughes were elite skill No. 1 picks, although Michkov is notably more skilled than both at the same age, albeit nowhere close to as good a skater as Hughes and smaller than Lafrenière. As well, with the way the lottery format is currently set up in the NHL, even if that player is available, you likely won’t be able to select him even if your team is terrible.

There is an asset management argument to this decision too. Even if you aren’t enamored with the player due to something in his skill set, or the geopolitical situation, if he becomes a KHL star over the next few years there will be serious trade demand for that player once his deal is up.

“It always comes back to evaluation, right? If he’s a star, you take him. If he’s not, then you start evaluating trade-offs,” said one former NHL GM. “There are so few star players in a draft realistically — if you have a shot to take one, you take it.”

The risks posed by the three-year contract can arguably be overrated too, if you think about what the typical timeline is for a non-elite NHL prospect to both: 1) Make their NHL team, and 2) Make a difference on that team. For all the players I listed above, it is highly unlikely that within the next three seasons they are helping an NHL team in a meaningful way. Maybe one or two do, and I can’t confidently tell you which ones those are.

“If any of the teams in a position to take him believe they are going to make a quick turnaround they’re fooling themselves,” said the ex-GM. “Realistically all young players are going to take years to develop before you’re ready to win with them anyways. The timeline concern is not valid in my opinion.”

Whether you agree or disagree, a team’s specific situation is often referenced by NHL sources in making both the Michkov determination and picking Russians such as Daniil But and Dmitri Simashev high; teams generally rate them highly as NHL prospects. Does that club have multiple first-round picks? Is the GM new or on a short leash? Is ownership a willing participant? Does the club have a rich prospect pool or is it bare bones? Is ownership willing to give hockey operations enough time to let Michkov arrive before making a change? These are variables raised by a number of executives in discussing the decision making process. Kirill Kaprizov, who mind you was a fifth-round pick, not a top five pick, and was not considered a premium prospect at the time of his draft, was drafted by one GM and ended up playing for the Wild two manager changes later.

“The opinions of hockey ops are not going to be that relevant,” said one scouting director. “Most evaluators agree he’s a top talent. This pick will come down to management and especially ownership. Can they stomach the risks?”

New post @TheAthleticNHL: 2023 NHL Draft confidential: what scouts think of the top prospects https://t.co/WpMdTW48Bk

— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) June 13, 2023

A very reasonable counter-argument posed to me from several executives for picking Michkov, is, frankly, that it’s not my job on the line if things go badly — if he signs another extension, if the geopolitical situation gets worse and getting players out of Russia becomes much more difficult or if the player simply doesn’t perform.

I get that argument. It’s much easier for me to say that teams should pick him from my keyboard. If things turn south with Michkov, The Athletic is not firing me (I hope!). Fans may not like it — they tend to want to win at all costs —but self preservation is a part of the human psyche and is absolutely a variable with teams. Management groups typically have five years to show meaningful progress, so it’s tough to go to bat for a guy who may join your team in four seasons. There are people in the league who have little appetite to risk their jobs on this pick. But there are also others who see the player as an avenue to turning their club around. If the pick doesn’t work out, is that a fireable offense? If you pass on him and it works out is it a fireable offense? That’s a question on the minds of many NHL personnel, I’m sure.

I personally have skepticisms that Michkov will sign an extension. Based on how he performed in the KHL this season, chances are that three years from now he will be a star KHL player looking for a new challenge. There is no guarantee that will be the case, though. Maybe on a top team like SKA he struggles to push his way to the top of a lineup consistently with his size and skating. But odds are he will be a top player by the end of his current deal. SKA’s public messaging has always been encouraging players to go to the NHL when “they’re ready,” although they may not always agree on when that is.

In terms of whether the geopolitical situation worsens, that is an unpredictable matter. The facts of the Ukraine war haven’t changed substantially since this time last year, where several Russian players went in the first and second round and none were close to the player Michkov is.

Among some evaluators I’ve spoken with, there is a personality question with Michkov too. It’s not a universal opinion in the industry, though. Based on the little in-person interaction I’ve had with Michkov, he was not exactly the most charming individual in the world and was a bit standoffish. I think he rubs people the wrong way, is a little arrogant, and may not be the most likeable personality in the world, but I also think that’s sometimes part of the process of being told you’re the next big thing since you were 12 years old. Jack Hughes rubbed people the wrong way too at times as a draft-eligible and safe to say he’s turned out OK. With personality issues, I look for the smoking gun. Is there a major incident I need to be aware of? Does it manifest itself constantly on-ice? I don’t think it rises to that level with Michkov. None of the team personnel I know who have interviewed Michkov via Zoom have come away saying there’s a major problem either.

Finally, some are just not full believers in the player. They see a small, average-skating one-way winger who has a ton of skill but they’re skeptical that it will translate into an impact NHL player. Some scouts reject the “best Russian prospect since Ovechkin” talk that has followed Michkov for years and say he’s closer to Tarasenko at the same age.

If Michkov became an NHL star he would be a unique one. I can’t ever recall someone who was an elite player in the NHL with his frame and skating and without excellent compete. It’s not too dissimilar from what we saw in the NFL Draft a few months ago, where Bryce Young, a barely 5-foot-11 quarterback with average mobility went No. 1 overall despite almost no comparables in recent memory to his frame and play style at that point of the draft. But he had special football IQ and the track record to justify teams thinking he can be the exception to the rules. Will Michkov be the exception to the rule?

Michkov is one of the most interesting prospect cases in my time covering the draft. He has special qualities. He has major flaws as a player for a potential No. 1 overall pick type of talent in normal circumstances. Players of his caliber are typically in the NHL right after the NHL Draft, not four seasons later. The context and unpredictability of the Russia-Ukraine war hangs over Michkov’s selection as well.

New post @TheAthleticNHL: @scottcwheeler and I debate top prospects in the 2023 NHL Draft https://t.co/xFJATir2lh

— Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) June 12, 2023

I’ve heard the arguments against taking him. The long KHL contract. The war. His skating. He’s probably not actually 5-foot-10, but closer to 5-9. He’s not the most likeable kid. He couldn’t make SKA’s KHL team this season.

They’re all reasonable arguments, and in the context of 99% of quality prospects many of those arguments would be highly concerning and some would be fatal flaws.

But Michkov is in the other 1%. Inside the offensive zone, I can’t remember a better first-year draft eligible I’ve seen in my time covering the NHL Draft in terms of his combination of offensive skill, hockey sense and scoring ability. He’s a special player, “a hockey genius” as one scouting director put it. I believe you should stomach the risks on a player like him, even if the risks are massive, because if he hits, you are talking about the caliber of player who can be an NHL MVP candidate.

I respect the arguments against picking him and realize I won’t bear the career downside of this going sideways other than to my reputation. I ranked Michkov third on my big board, and I would pick him there if I were in charge of an NHL Draft. Time will tell if that would be the right move or not.

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photo: RvS.Media / Basile Barbey / Getty Images)