More Voters Expect a Stronger Debate for Trump Than for Biden, Poll Shows

Expectations are higher for former President Donald J. Trump than for President Biden in Thursday night’s presidential debate, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.

The national survey, conducted in the days before the debate, found that 60 percent of registered voters thought Mr. Trump would perform “very” or “somewhat” well in the matchup. Only 46 percent said the same about Mr. Biden.

Overall, nearly half of voters anticipated a poor showing for Mr. Biden, signaling that the president enters the televised event facing widespread skepticism and scrutiny over his ability to demonstrate his fitness for office.

The debate will be the first time the two men will share a stage since October 2020, when they participated in the final debate of that year’s presidential race. It will be the earliest presidential debate in the nation’s history, occurring at the start of the summer rather than in the fall when the debates typically begin, and with a notably different format.

Nearly three-quarters of the participants in the poll said they planned to watch the debate. Republicans expressed the most enthusiasm: Eighty-three percent of Republican voters said they planned to watch, compared with 74 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents.

Melinda Cassetta, a federal employee from Clarksville, Md., said she was excited to see the matchup between the president and his predecessor.

“In this house, we will be live watching,” said Ms. Cassetta, 58, who is supporting Mr. Biden. “I told my kids, ‘No talking allowed.’”

Ms. Cassetta said she expected Mr. Biden to deliver a strong performance, though she worried about his age and speaking style, which she attributed to his childhood speech disorder.

“For Biden, we all know what everybody talks about: age. I get it, but Trump isn’t that much younger than him. And maybe he stutters,” she said, adding, “but Biden’s mind is there.”

Notably more Biden supporters expressed doubts about the performance of their candidate than Republicans. Ninety-two percent of Republicans said they expected Mr. Trump to deliver a strong showing. Eighty-four percent of Democrats said the same about the president.

The divergent images of the two men may be tied to views about Mr. Biden’s vitality. While Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are only three years apart, voters continue to give Mr. Biden, 81, lower ratings than Mr. Trump, 78, when asked about their ability to be effective in office.

Forty-five percent of voters said Mr. Biden’s age was such a problem that he is not capable of handling the job of president. Only 16 percent said the same about Mr. Trump. Those numbers are largely consistent with Times/Siena polling in February.

Still, the president retains a base of support when it comes to the debate. Steven Bergstein, a lawyer from Bala Cynwyd, Pa., said he expected Mr. Biden to deliver a strong performance.

“He’s a bright guy. He’s intelligent. He’s been through this many, many times. And he’s what is referred to in Yiddish as a ‘mensch,’” said Mr. Bergstein, 70, who is backing Mr. Biden. “Unfortunately, his opponent doesn’t have that skill.”

Still, Mr. Bergstein expressed some concerns about how others might perceive the president’s age.

“The only thing I worry about is sometimes I think people don’t listen and they just look. So Biden’s, you know, 80 whatever years old and he doesn’t run. He walks,” he said. “You know, so do I sometimes.”

Mr. Trump has also spent months mocking Mr. Biden as a weak and incompetent debater. In May, he called Mr. Biden “the WORST debater I have ever faced. He can’t put two sentences together!”

But in recent days, he has sought to reset some of those expectations. Last week, he called Mr. Biden a “worthy debater,” praising Mr. Biden’s performance in vice-presidential debates against Paul Ryan in 2012.

Samuel Palmer, a retiree from Nampa, Idaho, said he expected Mr. Trump to be “extremely well prepared” for the debate. But he worries about the format, which includes no audience and a rule that each candidate’s microphone will be muted when it is not their turn to speak. In recent days, the Trump campaign has attacked the debate moderators, two veteran CNN journalists, by accusing them of having biased coverage of Mr. Trump in the past.

“With the debate moderators having such control over, you know, how this whole thing is going to be going, I think that puts him at a little bit of a disadvantage to a certain extent,” said Mr. Palmer, 68, who is supporting Mr. Trump. “But he’s more than capable of putting on what I would hope to be an extremely well done and factual performance.”

Camille Baker contributed reporting.