Big rains from Beryl: Timeline for Michigan, see the updated radar

UPDATE: Second half of Beryl storm system will hit Michigan differently today: rain, wind updates

The afternoon round of forecast data is in and gives us a great idea of when we will deal with all of the rain. Let’s break down the timing so you know how difficult your travel may or may not be here in Michigan.

The general scenario is rain and thunderstorms developing in far southern Michigan now( 4 p.m.) The initial rain will act and feel like an outer band of a tropical system. Southern Michigan could get short-lived torrential downpours if you are in that initial arc of thunderstorms.

Here’s the always updated radar imagery to track the actual rain coming.

The rain will expand north to central Lower, the Saginaw Bay region, Flint and Grand Rapids in the second half of this evening. All of us from Big rapids, Mount Pleasant, Bay City and Midland southward should be in rain showers by midnight tonight. The rain will gradually increase in intensity to a steady light-to-moderate rain by daybreak Wednesday.

Remember, this isn’t an all-at-once downpour. This is a long duration light-to-moderate rain lasting almost 24 hours in many spots and with pockets of a few hours of very heavy rain. The long-lasting nature of this rain is what will make the total rain amounts really add up.

In fact the first band of heavy rain now following I-94 almost exactly is why Kalamazoo and Jackson should have some of the heaviest totals. Ann Arbor and Detroit are also along I-94 but we expect some occasional breaks in the rain for those spots on Wednesday.

Wednesday is a rainy day for all of us from Cadillac, Houghton Lake and Alpena southward. The heaviest rain will stretch from the Kalamazoo area to the Jackson and Lansing areas to the Flint area and the southern part of Michigan’s Thumb.

The rain will end from west to east Wednesday evening and overnight Wednesday. The rain should be over for the eastern Thumb and eastern Detroit area by sunrise Thursday.

Here’s the radar forecast from the model we like best in this situation. I have two looks for you. The first look is a smooth radar forecast in 15 minute increments. That model run only goes out to Wednesday morning, so I also have the hourly radar forecast out to Thursday morning.

Here’s a look at tomorrow morning’s radar during your drive to work and an afternoon radar forecast.

The yellow and orange areas will have rainfall rates heavy enough to flood poorly drained roadways. If you drive through intersections that fill with water during a regular heavy rain you could find those intersections impassable. But the main roadways that drain off will just have the ponding of water during the heaviest periods of rain.

It really is an easy weather story. Rain starts tonight. Rain continues heavy at times Wednesday, and ends Wednesday night.

Expect driving difficulties Wednesday, especially along the I-94 corridor and the I-69 corridor.

UPDATED RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST: Heavy rain up to 6 inches possible, See where Beryl rains will be heaviest in Michigan

INTERESTING FACTS ON THIS RAIN: Why Beryl’s rain isn’t our ordinary Michigan rain

Stay updated with the storm here.