Heavy rain up to 6 inches possible, See where Beryl rains will be heaviest in Michigan

UPDATE: Second half of Beryl storm system will hit Michigan differently today: rain, wind updates

A large swath of heavy rain is heading toward Michigan. There could be a smaller swath of excessive rain that would cause flooding. Here’s a look at the total rainfall expected.

We actually have a combination of rain from what was Hurricane Beryl and an already very moisture-laden atmosphere. A case in point is yesterday’s isolated thunderstorms produced 1.5 inches of rain in spots in a short time. Once the rain machine from Beryl gets going, the current moisture will enhance Beryl’s rain.

The rain starts at the southern Michigan border early this evening and advances north to as far north as it will get by 1 a.m. tonight. For most of us the rain starts in the second half of this evening. You still have time to mow the lawn or cover up a project. The rain will continue for much of Wednesday and end Wednesday night.

With these tropical rains we usually get a “mesoscale heavy rain swath.” This means in a general 2 to 3 inch rain there can be small areas that receive 3 inches or more.

Let’s start with a good general rain forecast. As we get into the storm we can pinpoint where the heavier mesoscale band will be setting up.

A swath from southwest Lower through central Lower to the Thumb will probably have at least 2 inches of rain and maybe several areas nearing 3 inches of rain. The National Weather Service also tries to give us a feel where they think the very heaviest rain could fall. That heaviest pocket of rain now looks like it will fall around the Kalamazoo area. They also indicate what many of our best models show in that some isolated spots could get 6 inches of rain.

Right now it looks like a 2-3 inch rain for Kalamazoo, the south side of Grand Rapids, the entire Lansing area, Jackson, Flint, Saginaw, Bay city and the Thumb. Still a solid 1-2 inch rain is likely for the north half of the Grand rapids area, Midland, and Ann Arbor and Detroit on the south side of the heavy rain band.

The rain will taper off to much lighter amounts north and west of Clare. By the time you get to Traverse City and far northwest Lower Michigan don’t look for much rain at all, maybe a few tenths of an inch.

INTERESTING FACTS ON THIS RAIN: Why Beryl’s rain isn’t our ordinary Michigan rain

We’ve talked at MLive Weather and figure this is similar to a snowstorm. We need to keep you updated if the heavy rain band shifts any. We also will be updating you once we know if a heavier mesoscale band of heavy is setting up. Check every six hours for updates here.