Is COVID-19 here to stay?

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes COVID-19, was first identified in December 2019 in China and quickly became a huge global threat. Vaccines against COVID-19 have been developed and, here at Novavax, we are working hard to play our part. But as we look to the future, we’re asking ourselves: ‘What are some of the major issues we will need to grapple with?’ 

1. COVID-19 will be with us for a long time 

Many scientists and researchers expect the SARS-CoV-2 virus to retreat from pandemic to endemic levels, where it is restricted to a particular region, but they do not anticipate it to disappear any time soon. A recent survey found that, out of 100 scientists, 89% believe that the virus will become endemic over time.¹ This means that COVID-19 vaccines may be needed over lifetimes, not just years.  

2. Vaccine protection only lasts for a limited time 

We know that vaccine protection declines over time because the body’s ‘immune memory’ wears off. In people without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, antibodies from some vaccines against COVID-19 appear to fall 2-fold to 5-fold over a period of 1 to 2 months after the second dose.² 

This is where booster shots come in – and they work in two ways, by:³ 

• Causing a surge in antibody production to help maintain protection against the virus. 
• Helping the body’s immune system recognize and react to the virus more quickly. 

3. Virus variants will continue to emerge 

Similar to seasonal influenza (flu), the virus that causes COVID-19 is expected to continue mutating over time. This has already become apparent as new ‘variants’ of the virus have appeared. 

Variants of the virus can differ widely from the original strain in terms of how easily they spread and the severity of the symptoms they produce. Some variants are just different. Others, however, can be classified as ‘Variants of Interest’, ‘Variants of Concern’ or the more troubling ‘Variants of High Consequence’.⁴ Emerging strains are being constantly monitored around the world in case they develop into a serious threat.⁵ Vaccine developers like Novavax are also evaluating new versions of their COVID-19 vaccines using approaches specifically designed to produce immunity against these variants.  

4. No one is protected from COVID-19 until everyone is protected 

Vaccines are one of the keys to ensuring that COVID-19 becomes containable and stays that way. While those who previously had COVID-19 have some immunity from infection, researchers have found that vaccines provide approximately 10 times more antibodies – thus offering more protection from COVID-19.⁶ 

COVID-19 is likely to be with us long-term. But there is reason to be optimistic. Collectively, we are developing the tools and strategies to greatly reduce the impact of the disease:  

• Policies and resources are supporting vaccine rollouts around the world, helping to control the spread of the virus.  
• Researchers are characterizing vaccines and immune system responses, to optimize how we protect the world.  
• Scientists are monitoring the evolution of the virus and the emergence of new strains.  
• Vaccine developers are pushing hard to produce effective, accessible tools for the entire world.  

Together, we are proud to be part of the solution.  

References 

1. Phillips N. Nature. 2021;590:382–384; 

2. Shrotri M, et al. Lancet. 2021;398:385–387;  

3. Callaway E. Nature. 2021;596:178–180; 

4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html [Accessed September 2021]; 

5. World Health Organization. Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants. Available at https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/ [Accessed September 2021]; 

6. Tretyn A, et al. Cells. 2021;10:1952.