Miranda H.’s Post

💡🇪🇺Voting for European Parliament? ☝️Check this out: With its nearly €100 billion budget, the EU’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (Horizon Europe) is the third largest line in the EU budget, after agriculture and structural funds. A important voice on why it matters during these elections:

Whilst the centre-right European People’s Party secured the most seats in this week’s European Parliamentary elections, far-right parties were the big winners, particularly in France and Italy. This result underscores rising nationalist sentiment and raises the likelihood of a tilt to the right in European policy, which would impact the bloc’s approach to immigration, national security and the green agenda. Read our analysis of Europe's shift to the right and the impact of geopolitics on investment in our weekly market wrap: https://bit.ly/4emGAQg #PeregrineWeeklyWrap #Investment #Elections

Following the European elections, the EU must now focus on three overarching economic policy trade-offs which will set the context for the new Commission from the beginning of its mandate Read Marco Buti and Marcello Messori's first glance: https://lnkd.in/ejvHjT4i

Most recently, we wrote on global politics: #elections in #UK and #France and give a #Tourism update 🌍 Read ⬇️ 📢 UK Elections: The Labour Party has won the legislative elections, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. With a large majority of seats (410 out of 650), the Labour Party's victory marks a significant shift in British politics. We expect pragmatism and fiscal discipline to guide the new government's policies, at least initially, with more ambitious changes likely after 2025. The public deficit is projected to reach -5.7% of GDP in 2024, supported by cyclical recovery, and -5.8% in 2025 as the government loosens policy. From 2026, a modest fiscal consolidation of GBP15bn (0.5% of GDP) per year is anticipated, with tax increases expected to fund higher spending and reduce the deficit. The economy is showing signs of improvement, and GDP growth is forecasted at +1.3% this year and +1.9% in 2025, benefiting from fiscal stimulus. Under a pragmatic Labour government, we anticipate 10-year GILT yields to finish 2024 at 3.7%, UK equity markets delivering returns of around 5% yearly, and stable corporate spreads in 2024, 2025 & 2026. 🗳️ French Elections: France is heading to the polls for the second round of legislative elections to elect their MPs. A hung parliament is the most likely scenario, with the right-wing Rassemblement National potentially winning the most seats. The process of forming the next government could extend into the summer under a hung parliament, with a hard deadline of the end of September to pass the 2025 draft budget bill. President Macron may appoint RN head Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister in the short term, even if the RN falls short of an absolute majority. Yet, we doubt such a government will last beyond September. The most probable outcome is a technocratic government taking over to ensure policy continuity and manage current affairs. Nevertheless, the public deficit is expected to remain large at close to -5% of GDP in 2025, and the government would face inherent instability. European and French assets have recovered after the first round, reflecting the reduced likelihood of a right-wing majority. 🚢 Tourism Rebound: Despite economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, the tourism sector is experiencing a rebound. Global hotel occupancy rates have reached 68%, the highest since the pandemic began. The cruise industry, in particular, is expecting summer 2024 to surpass summer 2019 in terms of bookings. International travel is the driver #1 of the tourism recovery, with Europe remaining the top destination worldwide. Chinese tourists continue to be the biggest spenders, with expenditures on international travel reaching USD 196 billion last year, surpassing Americans (USD 150 billion) and Germans (USD 112 billion). #UKelections #FrenchElections #TravelIndustry #Ludonomics #AllianzTrade #Allianz https://lnkd.in/erYMMSkq

Find out how the latest round of elections in both Europe and the US in 2024 could affect your business and the global financial outlook. https://buff.ly/49mm3Ze #entrepreneur #startup #business #election #finance #economy

As I listen and read conversations about the forthcoming UK General Election, I’m genuinely concerned about how much traction the Reform Party is gaining. Let’s not forget the lessons of Brexit. The campaign was riddled with misinformation and false promises, many spearheaded by Nigel Farage. The reality of Brexit has been a weakened economy, trade barriers, travel restrictions, and labour shortages. The Reform Party’s rhetoric is similarly built on fear and division, often veering into far-right, xenophobic territory. Please don’t be fooled again by those who exploit national discontent for personal gain. A vote for the Reform Party is a step back into the chaos of Brexit lies. Deciding who to vote for is no easy decision. We need leaders who unite us and build a positive future, not those who repeat past mistakes. I don’t believe any party has a perfect manifesto. I’ll base my voting decision on who I think is making good decisions for the country. Not decisions that personally suit me. #election #ukelection

The upcoming June elections won't resolve the issues Europe grapples with. What's crucial, beyond the majorities that will emerge from the polls (unless significant reversals occur), is to strengthen the emerging conviction that the European Union must equip itself to play the prominent role...

Increasingly, elections are turning into emotional appeals, instead of being based on cold hard facts. Reading this opinion piece convinces me that instead of focusing on democracy and economic growth, it has become a battle for who is disliked least. France and the UK seem to be following the US elections in this regard. It is important to support democracy in these challenging times because we lose our voice without freedom. An imperfect democracy is better than an efficient autocracy. But of course, with emotional appeals on immigration and deportation rising shrilly above voices of reason, it remains to be seen if the final outcome in France confirms the rising tide of protectionism at the cost of freedom to choose and who wins the democracy versus autocracy debate (and election!). #protectionism #democracy https://lnkd.in/gyVTVuge

European elections loom: Key challenges for the new policymakers include raising productivity, increasing industrial investment towards key industries, and improving fiscal coordination to prevent widening economic gaps with the US. https://lnkd.in/dh5RJHek #EUelections #Business #investment

A 2 part plan to deconstruct and disempower Europe's far-right bogeymen. Although the European Elections were a success for the European People's Party - writing in the The Irish Times - I argue that it would be a mistake for the European Union to return to a "business as usual" approach after the recent elections. Rather, pro-EU parties (led by the European People's Party) in the European Parliament should: 1. Engage with the "Constructive Europeans" (which form an element of the existing ECR grouping) on a topic-by-topic basis, while acknowledging not every vision of Europe must be that of the Brussels bubble – liberal, progressive and dreaming of a federal state; and 2. Side-lining and weakening the "Destructive" and "Anti-Everything" Europeans (spread across the remainder of the ECR, ID and non-aligned groupings) through the use of a pro-European supermajority in the parliament. A process built on a more realistic (and slimmed-down) legislative agenda. An agenda which refocuses the EU on its essential ingredients - creating jobs, wealth and affluence through the single market, protecting our borders and balancing the Green Transition with economic realities, including supporting Rural Areas. https://lnkd.in/eqAQi52d Maria Walsh Seán Kelly MEP Regina Doherty