Kevin Dowd’s Post

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Senior writer at Carta

Eventually, every startup employee who own stock options in their company faces a decision: Should they exercise those options, or let them expire? Over the past two years, there's been a clear trend in the marketplace. Fewer employees are choosing to exercise vested stock options before those options expire, even when those options are in the money—that is, when the current value of the options is higher than their exercise price. Back in Q3 2021, workers exercised nearly 55% of all vested, in-the-money stock options on Carta before their expiration. By the end of 2023, that number had dipped to nearly 30%. The exercise rate declined in nine consecutive quarters. But that trend came to an end in Q1 2024: The exercise rate for in-the-money options bumped up to 33.2%. For an employee, a lot of questions enter the calculus of whether to exercise vested options: How much are those options worth? How much will it cost to exercise them? What's the state of the employee's personal finances? Are they optimistic about their company's future? Are they optimistic about the broader economy? In some sense, the exercise rate for in-the-money stock options can be an index for employee confidence in the startup ecosystem as a whole. For the first time in more than two years, things are looking up.

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Cory Blumenfeld

3x Founder | Results-Driven Startup Operator & Generalist | Always Building...

2mo

Fascinating trend! It's interesting to see the shift in employees' decisions about exercising stock options. The rise in exercise rates in Q1 2024 might signal renewed confidence in the startup ecosystem. It makes sense that personal finances and optimism about the company's future play significant roles in these decisions. Let’s hope this upward trend continues! 

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Sean O'Toole

Unlocking Scale Growth | Fintech, Payments, Lending, SaaS, Tech | Sales, BD, GTM, Strategy | Founder (exit), CRO, P&L, Advisor | Cards, Credit, Debit, BNPL, B2B, B2C, Cross-Border, Acquiring | x Amex, Affirm, WU / FDC

2mo

Companies are taking longer to exit, either IPO or sales. It makes options less attractive to employees compared to RSAs.

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